Tweet
Feeling chuffed
5:01:58 PM Thu 21 August, 2003
Stats Guru
afl.com.au
Stats Guru is chuffed. After returning to AFL cyberspace in round 19 and crashing out on some critical game predictions, the Guru computer was upgraded and worked a treat in round 20. Unfortunately the link to afl.com.au got lost in ether-land and Stats Guru must now translate in hindsight before resuming with more revelations on the upcoming round 21.
After the upgrade, the only real bomb from the eight games in round 20 was the Crows against the Magpies, no doubt the result of an unexpected virus rife among the visitors to Telstra Dome. While the Guru computer expected the Lions to win, credit is due for posting a warning for tipping bloggers: ?There is no team that can run down an opposition in the final term like the Swans. They score an average of 4.42 goals in their fourth quarters while conceding only 2.89. Since round five against the Demons, they have been consistently starting the final term behind, and then taking off like a rocket to win. They nearly did it against Adelaide in round 18. But last week in round 19 the boosters didn?t ignite and they were unable to fly-down the Hawks.? At the Gabba, we now know what happened. The Swannies with Big Bazza Hall took off in the final quarter and they won by 14 points. Watch out Magpies, especially late in the game. Bazza has scored 18 of his season total of 55 goals in the last stanza at an incredible accuracy of 72%.?
Serendipity is a beautiful thing for reflection according to the Stats Guru.
Without a doubt, Sydney is the most efficient team in the competition., as the stats show.
Disposals: 15th
Inside 50: 15th
Goals: 4th
Disposals per goal: 2nd
Kicking Effectiveness: 2nd
Goal Scoring Accuracy: 1st
Sydney?s goal scoring accuracy of 63.6% ranks number one in the competition. Last week it had 20 shots to Brisbane?s 26 but won by 14 points.
Because the Swans rely on accurate kicking with a low amount of scoring shots and inside 50s, a big factor in them winning is goal scoring accuracy.
When the Swans win: Scoring accuracy 67%
When the Swans lose: Scoring accuracy 55%
Can it last? How real is it? Brisbane coach Leigh Matthews has described the Swans remarkable scoring patterns in terms of a compelling ?fairytale? that is bound to end at some point. After the Gabba game, Leigh is probably starting to think more about fairytales. Accuracy is determined by a combination of skills, planning and serendipity. The Swans have three special sharp shooters at long range ? Nick Davis 25.17 and 14.12 from outside 40 metres, Barry Hall 50.30 and 32.25, and Michael O?Loughlin 35.17 and 10.13. In one sense planning does not appear to be a factor given that the Swans are ranked only eighth in the competition at taking shots square of the sticks.
Do they plan it? Probably not. It just happens, like the Stats Guru reflects. Their players are potting goals from all angles and distances. Perhaps, the Swans accuracy is the result of their smooth backline moves, scoring the highest percentage of goals directly from defensive 50 metre rebounds of any team.
The Magpies can look remarkably similar to the Swans. As the comparison numbers below reveal, coach Mick Malthouse has groomed his team on the principle of low disposals and inside F50m entries, mean defence, and high scoring power once the ball eventually gets into the attacking zone.
Magpies
Disposals: 8th
Inside F50m: 10th
Goals: 2nd
Disposals per goal: 3rd
Kicking efficiency: 8th
Goal accuracy: 11th
Of all coaches, Mick is up there on another plane with the Guru. He sees the ?Ox moving? and says that the ladder ?is insignificant? until the finals. There is a profound choice for tipster bloggers to consider in the game of the round at Telstra Stadium ? Magpies mysticism or Swans serendipity?
What does the Guru computer reveal? Jason Ball and Jason Sandington out injured. Big losses. Bazza can do it again. Mick loves hugging the boundary line. Confused programming condition. Home city advantage. Magpies are still likely to play Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium in the first round of the finals. Go Swannies. Yes!
And in other games for round 21 the upgraded Guru computer ratings:
Hawthorn vs Carlton ? Blues in terminal condition
Adelaide vs Kangaroos ? Crows anti-virus patch now working
Essendon vs Fremantle ? Bombers raging ahead
Brisbane vs Geelong ? Lions on re-charge
St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs ? Saints hyper-linked
West Coast vs Melbourne ? Eagles spluttering & fall over likely
Richmond vs Port Adelaide ? Sorry Tigers
Stats Guru exclusively subscribes to the Official AFL Statistics provided by Champion Data
-------------------------------------------------------------------
a good read, our efficiency is bEAutiful!