Swans snare bargain late draft picks

**Roscoe** · 22 March 2006, 05:23 PM

Wiseby is rumored to be now being paid by collingwood as a recruiting scout

I think his assessments of the draft talent is interesting reading

Of course nobody gets it 100% right all the time, but his posts are good to read arounddraft time

**liz** · 22 March 2006, 08:17 PM

Colin Wiseby posts regularly over at Hotrods board and has been posting player profiles and limited predictions for several years. He makes no bones about being a Pies supporter but has mentioned that some clubs (but I think not Collingwood) now pay him something for access to his profiles - he is still very much freelance, however.

He's come in for a fair amount of (sometimes abusive) flak over the years (and especially this year and last) from ignorant supporters who get angry when he doesn't predict everyone of that supporter's club's draftees is a potential superstar. He has significantly reined in what he posts as a direct result.

I think his profiles are interesting and worth a read so long as you bear in mind

- he stresses that they are his opinion only
- he acknowledges that he is often out of sync with many club recruiters
- he acknowledges that he gets players wrong (in both directions) but points out that so do many club recruiters

He clearly watches a huge amount of underage football and appears to take copious notes. He has been doing his analyses for several years now and thus has some idea of how under-age traits translate into AFL level players - ie just because someone is an U18 superstar doesn't mean they'll make it as an AFL player. He seems to mix with other AFL recruiters - some, anyway, so has an idea of their methodologies and thought processes.

If nothing else, he paints a picture of what to expect from a player for those of us who rarely see these kids play before they get drafted. It can be interesting to read a profile a few years later and see whether the strengths and weakness that a young player has shown since being drafted are still evident several years on, or whether a youngster has been able to address a significant query.

So the answer is,yes, these have some value so long as you heed Wiseby's own advice and don't take them as absolute gospel on whether a player will make it or not.

FWIW I recall a few years ago he predicted that Malceski represented decent value and was a good chance to "make it" (which he hasn't done yet but is showing positive signs) while from the same draft he was sceptical of Thewlis' chances.

I'm pretty sure he also pinpointed Bevan as a rookie with a decent chance of playing senior football, and last year rated Grundy as a decent prospect too.

He was reasonably positive about Schneider's chances as a latish pick, but expressed some reservations about Moore. Erikson he had major reservations over, largely surrounding his like for the physical aspects of the game and his intensity, commenting that at underage level he had been able to get by largely on height alone.

If you read his comments on the Swans' picks this year, his main query over Laidlaw seems to be over intensity. I guess that suggests that his chances of succeeding partly rely on how quickly he grasps what is required at AFL level and how much he wants to make it. Comments on raw skills seem quite positive.

Brabazon, too, is interesting in that he has highlighted some attributes but questioned how these will translate into an AFL role. I wonder if he would have made similar comments about young Monty 5 or so years ago.

One thing about the Swans current list is that there are at least a handful of players who have transformed themselves amazingly from what they appeared to be when drafted, and in each case it seems to be due to extreme dedication and determination to become really good AFL players. Kirk, Barry, Buchanan and O'Keefe are probably four that immediately spring to mind.

Just because these guys have made it obviously doesn't mean that the Laidlaws, Thorntons, Brabazons et al have the same fierce determination. But at least we can take comfort from the fact that they are in a club environment where they will get pushed and supported all the way.

**Old Royboy** · 22 March 2006, 08:55 PM

Thank you Liz. Colin Wiseby has been criticised unmercifully on big footy, but he must see a lot of junior footy to accumulate all his information. Re Roscoe?s comment, I note that he nominated both the Pies #23pick (Ryan Cook) and their PSD pick (Sam Isles) as duds. So it is unlikely he had anything to do with their selections.

Can only hope that he is correct and that Ricky has found some more gold at the bottom of the draft mine. (to go with ROK, Schneids, Monty and we hope the Fridge)

**Legs Akimbo** · 22 March 2006, 09:10 PM

Liz, I read all Wiseby's stuff leading up to the pre-season draft and came to the conclusion that it is simply impossible for him to fund the travel and time necessary to collect the information he purports to collect. That is, unless he is some sort of Bruce Wayne charactar of the draft world with a secret fortune and private jet. Maybe Willy Wonker with his own private army of Oopa Loompa recruiting scouts.

Even if we watched every game every player played, clearly absurd, he would need to review the game of every player playing individually to assess them as a player.

I would take his comments more seriously if he quoted the sample size - i.e. how many times he has seen each player and in which games.

Until he does that, I treat his comments as better informed than average but not much.

**Roscoe** · 22 March 2006, 09:13 PM

Great analysis on Wiseby liz - agree 100%

Old Royboy - I said it was only a rumor about his 'Pies connection

but I take your point on board. Maybe the maggies should take more notice of his analysis

look at some of their recent duds - Danny Roach, Bo Nixon etc

I like the look of our 3 late picks, but as has been mentioned b4

they are surely down the pecking order

**Steve** · 22 March 2006, 09:40 PM

I'm pretty sure a few years back he offered his services to Collingwood but they declined.

Having said that their recruiting policy at the time was to sign as many Clokes and Shaws as were breathing.

I take it that Carlton and Melbourne didn't pay for his profiles - if they did they've completely ignored them as he seems to think they're all pretty average.

I think you'd find most of his profiles are based on seeing players 1-2 times (better players probably a few more times) - his 'analysis' is more general in nature and focuses on attributes (which would be easier to identify) eg. quick, athletic, balanced etc. As Liz said I think he looks for specific things (probably has a check list that he takes to games and rates each player against that).

He also tends to give his personal opinion on players and whether they might make it, vs where they might actually get drafted.

**liz** · 22 March 2006, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Steve

I think you'd find most of his profiles are based on seeing players 1-2 times (better players probably a few more times) -

He addressed this question around draft time last year (ie a few months ago). I don't recall his response with sufficient clarity to attempt to paraphrase him but I thought he said he watched most players a bit more than 1-2 times. I have 5-6 times stuck in my head for some reason, but wouldn't stake my life on it. Obviously it will be more for some players than others.

One thing I do remember him saying is that he relies a lot on tapes as well as watching players live. He addressed the question of whether he can tell as much from a tape and commented that he believes that he can in the sense that he rarely picks up much of significance about a player when watching him live that he doesn't also spot on tape.

**Steve** · 22 March 2006, 09:58 PM

You're probably right Liz - I'd imagine he'd still only see players live a couple of times.

But through working with various clubs he would now have access to far more tapes etc which would enable him to review a wider range of players, and also allow him to analyse them in greater detail.

**Charlie** · 22 March 2006, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Legs Akimbo
Liz, I read all Wiseby's stuff leading up to the pre-season draft and came to the conclusion that it is simply impossible for him to fund the travel and time necessary to collect the information he purports to collect.

What do you do with your weekends? Things that you like doing? So does Wiseby. He just happens to like watching junior footy. What's more, he gets paid for it.

That is, unless he is some sort of Bruce Wayne charactar of the draft world with a secret fortune and private jet. Maybe Willy Wonker with his own private army of Oopa Loompa recruiting scouts.

Or maybe he's able to travel alot (some people on this board make regular trips interstate throughout the footy season) and he sees several games each weekend.

Even if we watched every game every player played, clearly absurd, he would need to review the game of every player playing individually to assess them as a player.

Or he could dismiss the 25 or 30 players in each game that he has assessed aren't likely draft hopefuls, and focus on the players that he's interested in.

I would take his comments more seriously if he quoted the sample size - i.e. how many times he has seen each player and in which games.

Every profile of his that I have ever read has stated how many games he has seen that player play. From memory the average is around ten or twelve. That's not unbelievable for most players from the three major footy states. Bear in mind that players from these states each play five games in national championships. Once you see these games (and remember that most star juniors will play in two carnivals) it is easy enough to believe that he travels regularly enough to make up any difference between what he claims in the profiles and what he can see at the championships.

Until he does that, I treat his comments as better informed than average but not much.

Then you do him a disservice.

**Sanecow** · 22 March 2006, 11:23 PM

Yawn.

**Piobaireachd** · 22 March 2006, 11:52 PM

This turd has obviously never seen Brabazon play. The kid will make it. Eventually.

**Piobaireachd** · 22 March 2006, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by Sanecow
Yawn.

Actually, I agree. Why did I just post the previous post? Do you watch much WAFL/colts action Sanecow?

**Legs Akimbo** · 23 March 2006, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Charlie
What do you do with your weekends? Things that you like doing? So does Wiseby. He just happens to like watching junior footy. What's more, he gets paid for it.

Or maybe he's able to travel alot (some people on this board make regular trips interstate throughout the footy season) and he sees several games each weekend.

Or he could dismiss the 25 or 30 players in each game that he has assessed aren't likely draft hopefuls, and focus on the players that he's interested in.

Every profile of his that I have ever read has stated how many games he has seen that player play. From memory the average is around ten or twelve. That's not unbelievable for most players from the three major footy states. Bear in mind that players from these states each play five games in national championships. Once you see these games (and remember that most star juniors will play in two carnivals) it is easy enough to believe that he travels regularly enough to make up any difference between what he claims in the profiles and what he can see at the championships.

Then you do him a disservice.

Fair enough. I still think he embellishes to make a better read

**Snowy** · 23 March 2006, 11:54 AM

I've followed his predictions/assessments over a number of years and he's had mixed success, though sometimes he's been adamant X will be a dud and he's turned out that way. They did an article in The Age some years back on him and he was portrayed as an enthusiastic follower of junior football who watches as many matches as he can and tabulates all his results on computer. He designs computer software and I believe has supplied some clubs with programs which help with recording and assimilating all their recruiting information. I also believe (have heard unofficially), that he was involved with the Roos and Demons at some stage but don't think he's doing any 'official' spotting at the moment. I know he did court clubs though. Interesting in the year of the 'superdraft' 2001, he nominated Luke Hodge as his preferred #1.