We should win our next 7 games . . . .

[mcs]

gee Id be absolutely stoked if we got through the res tof the season with only two more losses. I reckon we will lose at least 3 (We do have Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood x2, Dogs, Brisbane again). Plenty of tough games to come yet. I think when I last worked it out Id be happy if we lost 5 games and got 58 points- would put us very close to the top 4.

[SimonH]

The main thing that stands out is that pretty much everything needs to go Sydney's way for us to finish on 16.5 wins. 15.5 is a tough but realistic aim; and if we can get there we should be pretty much guaranteed a top 4 finish.

While I haven't been through every game and done a ladder prediction, I'll happily bet whatever you like on one or both of:
a) the Dogs not being minor premiers
b) North Melbourne winding up on more than 6.5 wins. They're now on 5.5 and play Freo this week! While they do have a pretty horrible draw in the back end of the season which should cut them out of the final 8, I'd safely say at least 8.5.

Raffle 8th place at this stage, but unless Port or St Kilda rediscover their best, whoever gets it will just fall in due to a lack of alternatives. Agree that on their current form, both the Weagles and Freo should rack up a decent number of (meaningless) wins in the run home. My shock roughie in the make-up of the 8 is the Woods stumbling in their R22 away game against Freo.

[Haz]

gee Id be absolutely stoked if we got through the res tof the season with only two more losses. I reckon we will lose at least 3 (We do have Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood x2, Dogs, Brisbane again). Plenty of tough games to come yet. I think when I last worked it out Id be happy if we lost 5 games and got 58 points- would put us very close to the top 4.

you're right. There's no doubt we've got a very tough draw for the run home. But as I said it's my understanding that the current top eight teams face off against each other many a time.

What I think we should be able to take advantage of is the fact that a lot of our second half of the season games are at home. Games like the one against adelaide which would have been made alot harder had it been scheduled to be held at AAMI, yet luckily is at the SCG.

8 of our last 11 games are in sydney/canberra (where I believe our record is pretty good). Of the three away games, they are all in melbourne, with one against Hawthorn (who despite being in a similar vein of form last year, we managed to beat twice...i think we match up on them very well. I don't think their running, skillful game matches up well against tough, contested football teams. Hence the loss to the bulldogs), one against carlton (who despite running OK at the moment, shouldn't offer to much resistance), and the last against collingwood which i must concede will be very hard to come away from with the four points.

Basically what i'm trying to say is that going on current form and past results I believe that we should at least come away with 8 wins from our last 11....and wouldnt be surprised if we won that further ninth game...possibly against the bullies or the woods in a break of the wood they've had over us in seasons of late.

[NMWBloods]

It's really pretty open. I can't see Haw or Geel dropping from the top two spots. Bulldogs are unlikely to drop outside the four, but it is possible to see them in fourth. The remaining top 4 spot could equally go to the Swans, Colingwood, Adelaide or Brisbane, but the last unlikely and possibly the last two I think.

As they say, destiny is in the Swans' own hands.

Very tough draw. Not sure how much the home ground helps. We've lost our last two against Collingwood at ANZ Stadium and the previous two we won by a combined total of 8 pts against a Collingwood near the bottom of the ladder, and lost the one before that.

It will be very interesting to see how we go against Hawthorn. We have had their measure for quite a while, but they are a much better side this year than previous years and these runs eventually change.

Similarly, Adelaide are our bogey side, but they may be due to change too.

I think we are capable of 15 wins and making the top 4, but it could be a very tight finish, with our games against Collingwood, Adelaide, Bulldogs and Brisbane as quintessential 8 point games.