Roos or Saints?

[alison.z]

Roos to win.

Don't agree that we expect to lose to Geelong by 10 goals.

Agree! I never go into a game expecting the Swans can't compete - a good performance this week will set up (hopefully!) a good run of form in to finals.

[Captain]

Roos to win.

Don't agree that we expect to lose to Geelong by 10 goals.

[MattW]

Pondering this one myself. I'm going: Roos win and we need to beat the Lions to finish sixth.

Would love to see a home final; also, limping into eighth spot with a loss to the Lions would be pretty ignominious (in scenario where we don't need to beat them and don't...).

[Big Al]

If we can't beat the Lions at home we don't deserve a finals spot. So on that basis I want the Roos to win. This may give us a home final and the very sweet possibility that the Saints may miss the finals.

Edit: BBB and I are not the same person.

[Triple B]

Surely we want the Roos to win and win by plenty if possible to give us a chance of a home final.

Bottom line, if we can't beat Brisbane, regardless of the pressure etc., we have no place being in the finals anyway.

[alison.z]

Some interesting info from an email forward I got this week ...

"Basically - here's how I see it lining up.
Percentage, percentage, percentage.

Our best chances of a home final now comes down to the North v St Kilda game this Saturday.

If North win:
Good result for Sydney. There's a great chance that the Saints won't win either of their last two, and actually could end up missing the finals altogether. But our test will come down to our % with Essendon. Bombers have to make up 6.5% on Sydney. This is entirely possible given the Sydney Geelong and Essendon Port clashes this weekend. Sydney will have a target ahead of the Lions clash in a fortnight. We will know what we have to win by.

Running some numbers, even if Essendon win by 100pts then the will still only have about 103.8%.
Should Sydney get beaten by about 10 goals, as we expect, we will be 102.2% going into the Lions game.
Therefore Sydney would need to win by about 5 goals (111-80) to over run this percentage and take the home final.

If St Kilda win:
They will drop the Carlton game (presumably - but you never know - Carlton have zero to play for, can't move up or down, and they're coming off the bye which isn't easy) - Carlton by only a couple of goals there
But - they will finish on 46 points, and have a superior F+A. Their last goal yesterday actually hurt us a fair bit (about 0.5% when you factor it all together).
Their % will only get better with a win - even by about 10pts.
I have calculated we will need to beat the Lions by over 100 points to get the home final. Unlikely at best.

So - North win - it will probably be Sydney v Essendon in Week 1 - just % will decide on where the game is at.
If St Kilda win - Sydney will play at Etihad in the first week, just a matter of whether its Carlton or St Kilda we play depending on % with Essnedon.

Of course there's probably some scenario I've completely missed.
But I think it's imperative that North win.
"So join in the chorus and sing it one and all.....""

[longmile]

The roos are on a roll, I think they'll beat the Saints.

[msb]

With collingwood to most likely (actually definately) put freo's finals chances out the door this weekend and us highly unlikely to win against geelong, do we want the saints or roos to win this week? Saints win and we are guaranteed to make the eight, roos win then we are a good chance to get a home final but we may need to beat the lions to even guarantee a spot in the 8! I am hoping for a saints win, it would be good to have a week leading up to the lions game where we can just prepare for the first finals game and perhaps 'experiment' a little or rest some players in this game. I really dont want to have to be in the situation of having to beat the lions to make the 8, ive had enough stress for the year watching the games