Punters back Swans to fail

[DeadlyAkkuret]

IT MAY be the height of the cricket season - and the tennis circus is about to roll into town - but bookmakers continue to acknowledge unusual activity in AFL wagering, with recent reports revealing that Sydney has been backed to miss the finals in 2012.

It seems red, oval balls are never far away from punters' minds, and TAB Sportsbet media manager Glenn Munsie said there had been a premature and negative assessment of the Swans, with one bet of $18,000 predicting the perennial finalists will miss the main action.

Article

[Nich]

I never believe anything that comes out of their mouths I must say. It always has an ulterior motive and that is to get people to part with their money. Munsie just wants punters to either, a) back the Swans to make the 8 to cover his potential losses, b) there is no $18k bet and he is just getting a reaction to drum up business or c) he has taken plenty of bets for them to make the 8 and he wants to lead people into thinking the smart money is on them to miss it. TAB go out of their way to make sure they aren't exposed financially not the Munsie would ever admit that. They dont take risks these guys.

[wolftone57]

If it is true there is a good chance of these people losing their money, YAHOOO! If it is a marketing ploy it wouldn't induce me to bet on the Swans making the finals because I don't on footy with bookmakers.

[Primmy]

[Cheer Squad]

Article

So what else is new? We get the same thing every year.

[707]

I do have a bet on the footy with some regularity and like to scan the various tables with "Make the eight" and "Miss the eight" odds always interesting.

It can be hard to fully assess each teams off season gains and losses, long term injuries again being available, improvement in young players, drop in form of old players, changes to coaches and assistant coaches. Then there is a teams draw, how many games against the heavy weights, how many against GWS, Poor Power, CG, maybe Brisbane. How many games at really difficult to win venues like Subiaco and Kardinia Park.

History shows that there are not too many sudden rises or sudden drops in ladder position season to season and when they do occur, post event analysis will always highlight the combination of the above factors that came into play and other than long term injuries to key players, most of the factors were predictable.

As I said on another thread and I think it is relevant to this thread - it always makes me laugh when I read the blurb coming out of clubs and the media about how they have improved and will make the eight this year.

In 2012 it seems that Freo, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Bulldogs and Wretchmond are by their own releases and a lot of the general media hacks going to make the eight.

Now simple mathematics tells me that for every team that rises into the eight then an incumbent team has to drop out of the eight. Who will drop out then to make way for all of these rising to the eight in 2012 teams? I've got Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Weagles, Carlton and Sydney as almost sure things. St.Kilda and Essendon as wobbly.

$18,000 on Sydney to miss the eight? Must have too much money or they have done faulty analysis of the factors at play.

I'll analyse the winners and losers in the 2012 "fixture" in the next few days and tell you which teams I think have got an easy run and which ones have a difficult run. That will go some way to predicting movers and sliders this year.

For what it's worth, I've already had a bet on Hawthorn @ $6.50 to win the flag, over the odds in my opinion.

[CJK]

Gambling LOL

[Rod_]

Sydney is a long way from Melbourne and I guess after nearly 30 years they will continue not giving us the due respect. I would have thought we were on the rise... go figure!

Rod_

[wolftone57]

Sydney is a long way from Melbourne and I guess after nearly 30 years they will continue not giving us the due respect. I would have thought we were on the rise... go figure!

Rod_

I would have thought so too. The thing that most of us forget is that even Journo's are fans of the different sides. For instance Caro will pick the Tigers every year to improve. At one stage the interstate sides dominated the eight and the Journo's in Melbourne were feral. Many of the Journo's don't believe we should have any more help than the general Melbourne sides but the forget that we are redeveloping a market. There is that financial animosity and the risk that some of their precious clubs are going to disappear in the future, North, Richmond, Footscray, Melbourne, Saints etc. so! They hate us, after all they need someone to blame.

[Dosser]

Oh no! I didnt realise we werent playing in next season's finals!
Well, I guess that's it for me then, I wont be watching this year.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Oh no! I didnt realise we werent playing in next season's finals!
Well, I guess that's it for me then, I wont be watching this year.

[unconfuseme]

simple explanation ... this person is a Victorian AFL Journalist (therefor expert) who started tipping the Swans to miss the finals in 2003 and each year that he loses he doubles his bet ... shame he forgot to get set in 2009!

[wolftone57]

Let's just ignore the Victorian Fearful Press who live in total trepidation that interstate sides will fill the finals berths. Prediction for this year is a continuation of the Vic Revival to the detriment of the interstate sides. What a nice way to keep Vic Fans interested in going to the footy each weekend. Bugger them they don't count these Xenophobic Journos

[swansrob]

I can't wait for the year the top 8 is made up of Swans, GWS, WCE, Freo, Adelaide, Port, Brisbane and GC!

[Big Al]

I can't wait for the year the top 8 is made up of Swans, GWS, WCE, Freo, Adelaide, Port, Brisbane and GC!

Yep... We had an all interstate top 4 in 2006 and you would have thought the world was ending the way the Vic media carried on.