Expectations for 2021 season

**707** · 27 November 2020, 01:55 PM

Expectations for us need to be weighed against other teams progress/regress as we are not competing against the ladder but other teams of course.

It always amuses me when every pre season you hear people talk about which teams outside the eight "should make the finals" this year, even "expert" commentators have three or four teams some years in this category but for that to happen you need the same number to drop out, 12 into 8 doesn't go.

So it's which teams we can move ahead of or keep ahead of. If we get a good run with injuries and some natural improvement from younger players, plus we have as good a draft hand as any other team IMO, we should stay in front of Crows and Norf, we've got Hawks covered, Injectors have lost more than gained so that's up to 14th then it gets tougher. Gold Coast must finally rise given the talent rich list, Freo? Carlton must burst into the finals with what they've added. Who is dropping out, Pies in trouble or not bothered by the list quagmire?

I'm quietly confident we can move ahead of a few more, the young talent is exciting.

**SwanSand** · 27 November 2020, 02:01 PM

Health of Players
Kennedy, Parker, Hewett, Mills, Lloyd, Rampe, Melican, McCartin, Dawson, Heeney, Papley, Hickey, Sinclair - If healthy -> Pass mark Ladder position 10 - 14

In addition to above
Buddy, Reid -> If healthy -> Pass Mark Ladder position 8 - 12

If Bud plays -> 10 - 14 games -> Pass mark

Development
Rowbottom, McInerney, Florent, Stephens, Blakey - > if they take next step -> Pass (Expecting this to happen). If we get an inside midfielder would shift Florent to outside role with intermittent center bounces.

Recruits
Campbell, Pick 3 and Gulden -> If come along and play > 15 games between them -> Excellent Development

Game Style
Don Pyke influence on playing group -> want to see better functioning forward line.
Want to see continued corridor use
Want to see continued Quick play the ball

What will get us into top 8 ?
Ruck connection with midfield -> if this somehow happens, i reckon we have the personnel to take us there
Forward line -> we are a bit non functional when Bud misses, but somehow we need to prepare for life after Bud starting this year.
Contested marking and possessions -> We were contested beast, we dont need to go slow and contested game but our players need to do contested marking and quick play for our forward line to function well.

**Thunder Shaker** · 27 November 2020, 02:15 PM

* Be competitive. Even if we're not making the finals next year, at least have a say in the makeup and order of the final eight with a couple of wins over sides in contention for finals. Similar wins this year: GWS, Melbourne.
* Get more games out of our first-choice players. Franklin played no games, Heeney played six. These two players playing 30 games or more next year between them would make a difference.
* Get games into the younger players. Rotate them into the side for a few games at a time.
* Improve our scoring. This goes without saying. Two more goals a game would put us on the edge of the finals. We should be able to improve by more than that.

Expectation: Finish 12th with eight or nine wins.
Potential: If everything goes right, we could be back in the finals next year.

**Thunder Shaker** · 27 November 2020, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by 707

Expectations for us need to be weighed against other teams progress/regress as we are not competing against the ladder but other teams of course.

It always amuses me when every pre season you hear people talk about which teams outside the eight "should make the finals" this year, even "expert" commentators have three or four teams some years in this category but for that to happen you need the same number to drop out, 12 into 8 doesn't go.

An important point that is lost on some.

As a rule of thumb, one can expect about three sides that made the finals in one year to miss out the next. In 2020, the finalists from 2019 that missed out were GWS and Essendon. In 2019, the 2018 finalists that missed out were Hawthorn, Melbourne and Sydney. In 2021, one can expect at least two to miss out. The most likely to miss out would be Collingwood, after that it's hard to tell.

---

Sydney will have the benefit next year of a bottom-six fixture that would see the Swans playing more of the other bottom-six sides twice. If we're improving next year, that would give us about two or three additional wins.

**707** · 27 November 2020, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker

An important point that is lost on some.

As a rule of thumb, one can expect about three sides that made the finals in one year to miss out the next. In 2020, the finalists from 2019 that missed out were GWS and Essendon. In 2019, the 2018 finalists that missed out were Hawthorn, Melbourne and Sydney. In 2021, one can expect at least two to miss out. The most likely to miss out would be Collingwood, after that it's hard to tell.

---

Sydney will have the benefit next year of a bottom-six fixture that would see the Swans playing more of the other bottom-six sides twice. If we're improving next year, that would give us about two or three additional wins.

Double ups against Crows, Norf, Hawks, spanking Hawks twice in a season would be delicious. Double up against a weakened? GWS

**bloodspirit** · 27 November 2020, 03:26 PM

It's hard to see how we make finals exactly, but I give us at least a 20% chance. Even though it's hard to tip which sides in the 8 might slide out (except perhaps Collingwood), and there are others that are looking like they are banging on the door (Carlton, Melbourne), I reckon we could do it.

Finishing next year above GWS will be progress. And very satisfying progress at that, unless they degenerate into a complete rabble (which is possible despite them still having a pretty star-studded list). They really have a bit of a line-in-the-sand moment this off-season to decide what they stand for. 2021 is the first season in fair while that Gold Coast threatens to finish higher than them.

**Thunder Shaker** · 27 November 2020, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by 707

Double ups against Crows, Norf, Hawks, spanking Hawks twice in a season would be delicious. Double up against a weakened? GWS

I think the doubled-up games are likely to be in a 3-1-1 pattern: three against the other five sides in the same part of the ladder, plus one in the other two parts of the ladder. Sometimes this can vary to a 2-2-1, but the 3-1-1 pattern is normal.

We will get two games against GWS. We will get a doubled-up game against a top six side. So it's plausible that our double-up games may be one top six side, GWS, and three of Adelaide, North, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Essendon. It may vary a bit from this.

The original 2020 fixture for Sydney (15th in 2019) had these doubled-up games:
Top 6: GWS
Middle 6: Essendon, Hawthorn
Bottom 6: Carlton, Gold Coast

**longmile** · 27 November 2020, 04:37 PM

Bottom 6 is a fail. We should be finishing 8-12 and pushing for finals.

**Ruck'n'Roll** · 27 November 2020, 06:23 PM

This is pretty much my favorite thread in the off season.

Gives posters a chance to exchange views on player development that isn't really possible in season.

Player Development
Last year, on the basis of ressie watching I booked a seat on the 1 game halfback Justin Mcinerney bandwagon. I also suggested Knoll wasn't the answer.
This year I can predict nothing because i didn't see any ressies games last year.

One thing I'd like to discuss though,

Jake Lloyd is our #1 leaving-the-defensive-50-player - the problem is that while pretty accurate, he's not a particularly long kick and they tend to float a little bit (too much elevation).
So why don't we channel more play through Jordan Dawson?
Certainly I'd prefer to see him doing that rather than defending against an opposition tall forward, or acting as relief ruckman FFS (any more of the latter nonsense and who knows, he might bugger of to Port Adelaide too)

**Ruck'n'Roll** · 27 November 2020, 06:27 PM

PS

Last year I said we'd sneak into the finals, but that SamN was the most important ingredient in that.

This year I say that we'll sneak into the finals, but that Hickey was the most important ingredient in that.

**The Runner** · 27 November 2020, 06:53 PM

- Warner to become our #1 tagger and become a favourite
- Gould to have gotten his body in a shape to be up for the aerobic demands of AFL, and play 18 games
- Stephens to be rated better than Serong and cover the most km in the team across 2021
- Buddy to play 12 games and be highly managed, Reid to play 5 in his final year and retire mid season
- Kennedy to play his final year
- The McCartin brothers to be stars at either end
- Rowbottom to have a seemingly down year after the return of some other big bodies in the middle
- Overall excitement over our future with the quality on the list, but consistency being the issue meaning we finish 10th

**SwanSand** · 28 November 2020, 11:28 AM

This my ladder prediction
Top 6 in no specific order but I think Lions will slide and wouldn’t be surprised if bulldogs make top 4 !
Richmond
Geelong
Port Adelaide
West Coast Eagles
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs

Next 5 in no specific order but I reckon Melbourne misses finals again ! Carlton may sneak through.
GWS
St kilda
Melbourne
Carlton
Collingwood

Next 4 in no specific order but I reckon it would be great if Swans can go from this group to the one above. I reckon we will finish 12 but need to finish 10-11.
Fremantle
Sydney
Gold Coast
Essendon

Bottom 3. Adelaide may surprise if they gel. If they rise the most likely club to finish bottom 3 is Essendon.

Hawthorn
Adelaide
North Melbourne

**Thunder Shaker** · 28 November 2020, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by SwanSand

This my ladder prediction
Top 6 in no specific order but I think Lions will slide and wouldn’t be surprised if bulldogs make top 4 !
Richmond
Geelong
Port Adelaide
West Coast Eagles
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs

Next 5 in no specific order but I reckon Melbourne misses finals again ! Carlton may sneak through.
GWS
St kilda
Melbourne
Carlton
Collingwood

Next 4 in no specific order but I reckon it would be great if Swans can go from this group to the one above. I reckon we will finish 12 but need to finish 10-11.
Fremantle
Sydney
Gold Coast
Essendon

Bottom 3. Adelaide may surprise if they gel. If they rise the most likely club to finish bottom 3 is Essendon.

Hawthorn
Adelaide
North Melbourne

A few remarks:

* Brisbane - recruiting Daniher will improve the side if he can play a good number of games. They need to turn around their poor conversion in front of goal and Daniher could help them do that.
* Collingwood - have had a shocking trade period and they are unlikely to repair that damage in one draft. They could fall a lot further than a couple of places. I'm expecting them to be the big sliders in 2021.
* Essendon - they have three consecutive draft picks in the top 10 and should recruit well with this rare opportunity. I don't see them as being a bottom four club next year.
* Geelong - They have an aging list and it's only a matter of time until their best players are past their prime or missing games with injuries. Many pundits are tipping them for the 2021 flag, but if players aged 30 or over like like Dangerfield, Selwood, Taylor and Hawkins start declining in form or missing long periods with injury, the weakness of having the oldest list in the competition will be exposed.
* Gold Coast - may perform better than expected because their assistance package is helping them. Rowell is a beast and if he can get close to 22 games he's going to push the Suns towards contention. Suns may not make the finals next year but may go close.
* GWS - have a problem with club culture and player cohesion. They're not going to be pushing for finals next year unless they turn that around. Five first-round draft picks would barely be enough to replace the quality players they keep losing to other clubs.

All groups arranged alphabetically.
* My top 6: Brisbane, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs. Geelong more likely to be sliders than Brisbane due to the ages of the lists.
* Sides pushing for last two places in the finals: Carlton, Gold Coast, Melbourne, West Coast. Eagles most likely, Suns least likely.
* Next group of sides - Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, Sydney.
* Bottom four - Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne. North Melbourne most likely to get the spoon.

**Markwebbos** · 28 November 2020, 01:32 PM

I've been OK with writing off 2019 and 2020 as "development" years, but 2021 is the year when I expect to see significant improvement. Some of those green shoots need to grow into something productive. Our two biggest areas of weakness recently have been in the midfield/ ruck and up forward.

Forward, I don't see where significant improvement is going to come from with our current list, outside of Buddy playing again, so my hope is:

(1) Buddy plays at least half of the games next year
(2) We recruit two KPFs, potentially one in the draft and one DFA e.g. Paddy McCartin
(3) We use 2021 to figure out who has/has not got it and vigorously pursue the player(s) we need to fill the void.

We lost 5 games last year by 10 points or less, so if we can improve our scoring by 2 goals, we'd win most of those.

Midfield, we've been getting beaten up for years now, but have recruited Tom Hickey at the expense of AA, who I expect to be a significant improvement on Sinkers. We also have a pretty significant infusion of young talent including: Rowbottom, Stephens, Blakey, McInerney and possibly Warner. And there are two highly rated players in Mills and Heeney that could play more midfield time. Plus we are expecting the arrival of two midfielders in Campbell and Gulden.

My hopes are:

(1) Time for the changing of the midfield guard. The younger Brigade - Florent, Rowbottom, Hewett, Blakey, possibly Heeney or Mills to step up and start to carry the midfield and allow JPK and to a lesser extent Parker to move out. By the end of 2021 I'd like to see a new established centre bounce rotation squad. Rowbottom and Florent have already shown signs.
(2) Hickey to take the #1 ruck from Sinkers and be able to tap the ball to our players, win clearances etc
(3) Swans to be breaking even in clearances, contested ball etc
(4) We've got the potential to be devastating on the outside with fast players who can kick extremely well. I'd like to see us cutting sides apart on a regular basis (as we saw sporadically this year)
(5) Commentators to finally abandon the idea that the Swans are a slow, boring, stoppage hungry side because our play is quite literally the opposite.

Player development wise:

(1) The untried or barely tried Gould and Ling to force their way into the side and become regulars
(2) Heeney to take the next step and start dominating games
(3) McCartin to be in consideration as AA CHB
(4) Further significant progress from Blakey, Stephens, McInerney and above all Rowbottom, who surely has leadership potential
(5) Florent and Hayward to become the players we hoped they could be
(6) Clarke ... gets to a lot of contests, horrible disposal, but improving. He's either cemented his spot or gone at the end of 2021
(7) Lewis Taylor gets himself fit and plays to his potential

There's also been a massive clearout in the coaching ranks with Blakey, Tadhg, Johnson etc gone. I really hope the Swans continue to develop into an attacking, corridor team, that are exciting to watch. The change of game style this year fills me with hope.

Results wise, we have to start climbing up the ladder again. This years 5 wins works out equivalent to 6.5 in a normal year, 2019 we had 8 wins. We'd want to be winning at least 10 games and in the mix to make finals.

Expectations for 2021 season

Swans chat Expectations for 2021 season

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