Rnd 21, vs North Melbourne at Marvel, on Sunday 7 August, 1:10 PM

[MattW]

There is a mathematical oddity that could occur: Melbourne and Sydney could have identical percentages after this round.

Melbourne's against score (1352) and Sydney's against score (1404) are both multiples of 52 (26×52 and 27×52). This makes it possible for Sydney's percentage to equal Melbourne's precisely with the right scores. Melbourne's current for score is 1742 (26×67, the common factor is 26) and Sydney's current for score is 1776. 33 points is the deficit needed that takes Sydney's for score to 1809 (27×67, note the common factor of 27). 1809 = 1809/1404 = 1742/1352, and in lowest terms both fractions reduce to 67/52.

A 33 to 0 win won't occur, but the next possibility is 100 to 52 (+67 and +52), and those scores are possible. 167 to 104 is also possible but less likely.

What are the chances? Roughly the same as the chances of two draws in two games, about 1 in 3000 or so.

What would happens if that occurs? The AFL would resort to using other tiebreakers that it has rarely used before. The other tiebreakers are higher for score, more goals kicked over the season, head to head results. As we would be better than Melbourne on all three measures, we would be higher on the ladder despite having an identical percentage.

Great post!!

[liz]

What would happens if that occurs? The AFL would resort to using other tiebreakers that it has rarely used before. The other tiebreakers are higher for score, more goals kicked over the season, head to head results. As we would be better than Melbourne on all three measures, we would be higher on the ladder despite having an identical percentage.

Percentage only really matters at the end of the season though. And the chances of two percentages being equal in three matches (for us, two for the Dees) are even lower (substantially lower) than them being the same tomorrow evening.

[Aprilbr]

Well last night's result opens up the real possibility of us winning our final 3 and landing in second spot. Accordingly, I'm going to the game tomorrow afternoon hoping for a big win - a % booster, to take us above the Dees. Then we knock off the the Pies to take 2nd in the following game. Its a real possibility.

[graemed]

I saw the game against North earlier in the year and I was surprised that this team is not more successful. Their talls were good against us and their mid-sized forwards were outstanding. They are playing in front of members of a premiership winning team celebrating their 25th anniversary.
I only hope that the Swans are focused and switched on. I have no doubt that we are the better team but we still have to win possession at clearances and stoppages. We have to be disciplined and hard in the contests and in defence.
I like the inclusion of McDonald but he is on trial and needs to perform if he is playing finals.

[Markwebbos]

I saw the game against North earlier in the year and I was surprised that this team is not more successful. Their talls were good against us and their mid-sized forwards were outstanding. They are playing in front of members of a premiership winning team celebrating their 25th anniversary.
I only hope that the Swans are focused and switched on. I have no doubt that we are the better team but we still have to win possession at clearances and stoppages. We have to be disciplined and hard in the contests and in defence.
I like the inclusion of McDonald but he is on trial and needs to perform if he is playing finals.

North are I think number 1 clearance team over the last few weeks. I hope we are focussed on this game and not looking ahead to next week.

[Ludwig]

The point has been made by much of the footy media that premiership teams are usually switched on and playing their best footy leading into the finals. Collingwood were certainly switched on and looking in premiership mode. Even thought Melbourne lost, I thought they looked in good form as well.

We've been in good form the past 4 games. We have to come out and play our best brand of footy for the rest of the season, because if we don't, we won't be there for the grand final. Pretty simple.

[Aprilbr]

The point has been made by much of the footy media that premiership teams are usually switched on and playing their best footy leading into the finals. Collingwood were certainly switched on and looking in premiership mode. Even thought Melbourne lost, I thought they looked in good form as well.

We've been in good form the past 4 games. We have to come out and play our best brand of footy for the rest of the season, because if we don't, we won't be there for the grand final. Pretty simple.

Agreed. If we don't come prepared to fight out every contest then we could be struggling. We have a big edge in class and skill but we need to keep that effort up. If you look at our stats in recent weeks, the big improvement has come in clearances and contested possessions. They were very average earlier on, but have improved significantly since. We need to keep that trend going.

[joeykanga]

There is a mathematical oddity that could occur: Melbourne and Sydney could have identical percentages after this round.

Melbourne's against score (1352) and Sydney's against score (1404) are both multiples of 52 (26×52 and 27×52). This makes it possible for Sydney's percentage to equal Melbourne's precisely with the right scores. Melbourne's current for score is 1742 (26×67, the common factor is 26) and Sydney's current for score is 1776. 33 points is the deficit needed that takes Sydney's for score to 1809 (27×67, note the common factor of 27). 1809 = 1809/1404 = 1742/1352, and in lowest terms both fractions reduce to 67/52.

A 33 to 0 win won't occur, but the next possibility is 100 to 52 (+67 and +52), and those scores are possible. 167 to 104 is also possible but less likely.

What are the chances? Roughly the same as the chances of two draws in two games, about 1 in 3000 or so.

What would happens if that occurs? The AFL would resort to using other tiebreakers that it has rarely used before. The other tiebreakers are higher for score, more goals kicked over the season, head to head results. As we would be better than Melbourne on all three measures, we would be higher on the ladder despite having an identical percentage.

Love this post

[707]

Pyke has apologised for the Crows camp on Ch7 apparently.

I hope the camp isn't playing on his mind distracting him from the important stuff!

[Thunder Shaker]

Percentage only really matters at the end of the season though. And the chances of two percentages being equal in three matches (for us, two for the Dees) are even lower (substantially lower) than them being the same tomorrow evening.

These points are correct. I was remarking on the mathematical possibility because it's very rare for this to happen after round 1 (round 1 tiebreakers are more common due to occasional first-round draws). I know of no examples after round 1 in the AFL.

If it does happen (a remote chance), expect the AFL to post a detailed article on it.

[Hotpotato]

Geez , it’s a quiet ol build up to this game, hope the Team make it to the ground on time .
Still no match thread with 30 mins to go .

[Maltopia]

Ben Mackay just ruled out with shoulder issue.

[Mel_C]

1996 grand final reunion right in front of me. I will never forgive David King for what he did to Craig O'Brien.

[cruiser]

Sitting at Marvel being forced to suffer a NMFC celebration of the 96 GF, including highlights on the big screen. What a Tracey, trolling and tactless club they are. I hope we annihilate them today. I should have brought a wooden spoon to wave.

[stevoswan]

Mark my words , Clarke will not be in a flag side for us or in our 22 next yr

If he shuts down Daicos next week he will be a lock for the finals.

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1996 grand final reunion right in front of me. I will never forgive David King for what he did to Craig O'Brien.

Me neither....what a bunt.