Pre-season formula

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  • LittleSchneider
    On the Rookie List
    • Nov 2004
    • 582

    Pre-season formula

    I knew they collected data on individual players throughout the last 3 years. What I didnt realise is that they have a specific 'formula' that they feel gives a player a 75% chance at having an injury free year - and Mission and Gibbs feels that its fairly accurate as well.
    Interesting read.

    And the man who started it, the Schneiderman, can kick his third for the quarter. And the swans are in the Grand Final!
  • Mel
    Regular in the Side
    • Jul 2005
    • 883

    #2
    Why is that story under the basketball section?
    Life's not a spectator sport

    Comment

    • LittleSchneider
      On the Rookie List
      • Nov 2004
      • 582

      #3
      Good point Mel - I have no idea why.
      And the man who started it, the Schneiderman, can kick his third for the quarter. And the swans are in the Grand Final!

      Comment

      • katie-scarlett
        On the Rookie List
        • Dec 2005
        • 515

        #4
        another one of Roos' "revolutionary strategy" maybe.

        Comment

        • Ryan Bomford
          On the Rookie List
          • Sep 2003
          • 652

          #5
          Originally posted by LittleSchneider
          Good point Mel - I have no idea why.
          Maybe because that don't have a section titled: Aerial Ping Pong

          Comment

          • Ruckman
            Ego alta, ergo ictus
            • Nov 2003
            • 3990

            #6
            Seems the "good luck" the Victorians were complaining we had with injuries had more to do with Paul Roos, Dave Misson etal than dame fortune.
            What excellent behind the scenes work. Outstanding!

            Comment

            • Sanecow
              Suspended by the MRP
              • Mar 2003
              • 6917

              #7
              Originally posted by Ruckman
              Seems the "good luck" the Victorians were complaining we had with injuries had more to do with Paul Roos, Dave Misson etal than dame fortune.
              What excellent behind the scenes work. Outstanding!
              Calling NMWBloods!

              Comment

              • Old Royboy
                Support Staff
                • Mar 2004
                • 879

                #8
                If there is a 25% chance of each of our top 22 players getting injured, then there is a 100% chance that at least 5 of them will be injured at some stage during the year.and a 50% chance that 11 will be injured..

                If somebody said that in an average year half of the top team was likely to be injured at some stage during the season would we be happy? Because this is effectively what they have said. I wonder what the average over time has been. I suspect the point is that this rate is less than what has happened in the past. .

                Those numbers also say the there was a 50% chance of 2 players going down in the finals, and a 100% chance of 1 going down. So Nick was right ? we were lucky, but good management certainly did not hurt.
                Pay peanuts get monkeys

                Comment

                • Nico
                  Veterans List
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 11328

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Old Royboy
                  If there is a 25% chance of each of our top 22 players getting injured, then there is a 100% chance that at least 5 of them will be injured at some stage during the year.and a 50% chance that 11 will be injured..

                  If somebody said that in an average year half of the top team was likely to be injured at some stage during the season would we be happy? Because this is effectively what they have said. I wonder what the average over time has been. I suspect the point is that this rate is less than what has happened in the past. .

                  Those numbers also say the there was a 50% chance of 2 players going down in the finals, and a 100% chance of 1 going down. So Nick was right ? we were lucky, but good management certainly did not hurt.
                  There was no mention of the type or seriousness of the injuries that might actually cause a player to miss a game. I get your logic but I think you may be extrapolating the %'s a tad over the top.

                  I love seeing this stuff, because it shows how far advanced we are in all things 'game". I wonder if there is a mad scramble today by other clubs to jump on the bandwagon.

                  Roosey and his boys are real trend setters.

                  Gives me great confidence for 2006.

                  I also suspect that by having a system like this it has the affect of focusing players in a completely different and refreshing way/approach to training and fitness, that translates into desire to succeed.

                  Who said Roosey wasn't the Messiah.
                  http://www.nostalgiamusic.co.uk/secu...res/srh806.jpg

                  Comment

                  • Mel
                    Regular in the Side
                    • Jul 2005
                    • 883

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Old Royboy
                    If there is a 25% chance of each of our top 22 players getting injured, then there is a 100% chance that at least 5 of them will be injured at some stage during the year.and a 50% chance that 11 will be injured..

                    If somebody said that in an average year half of the top team was likely to be injured at some stage during the season would we be happy? Because this is effectively what they have said. I wonder what the average over time has been. I suspect the point is that this rate is less than what has happened in the past. .

                    Those numbers also say the there was a 50% chance of 2 players going down in the finals, and a 100% chance of 1 going down. So Nick was right ? we were lucky, but good management certainly did not hurt.
                    It's been a while since high school maths, but I don't think that's the way percentages and probabilities work. There was never a 100% chance that five of our top players would be injured come GF time. Can anybody who is/was good at maths help me out?
                    Life's not a spectator sport

                    Comment

                    • NMWBloods
                      Taking Refuge!!
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 15819

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Ruckman
                      Seems the "good luck" the Victorians were complaining we had with injuries had more to do with Paul Roos, Dave Misson etal than dame fortune.
                      What excellent behind the scenes work. Outstanding!
                      I think that is an outstanding piece of planning and it's good to see the club being so forward thinking. It certainly seems to be a factor in reducing the number of injuries, probably mainly soft-tissue ones.

                      However, other injuries, such as broken bones, knee damage, etc, that can occur on match day are mainly all about luck.
                      Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                      "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                      Comment

                      • Sanecow
                        Suspended by the MRP
                        • Mar 2003
                        • 6917

                        #12
                        Thank goodness you're here.

                        Comment

                        • Thunder Shaker
                          Aut vincere aut mori
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 4156

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Mel
                          It's been a while since high school maths, but I don't think that's the way percentages and probabilities work. There was never a 100% chance that five of our top players would be injured come GF time. Can anybody who is/was good at maths help me out?
                          This may be incorrect but it's a good first approximation.

                          Let's assume the season is 26 games, and the probability of a specific player being injury-free for the season is 75% (0.75).

                          Then the chance of that player being injured during a game is 0.75^(1/26) which is roughly equal to 0.989.

                          The chance of all 22 players escaping injury in a game is 0.75^(22/26) or roughly 0.784.

                          The chance of all 22 players going injury-free during a 4-game finals campaign is 0.75^(88/26) or roughly 0.378.
                          "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

                          Comment

                          • hammo
                            Veterans List
                            • Jul 2003
                            • 5554

                            #14
                            I said it after the finals, but Dave Misson deserves a premiership medal himself. Knight him or whatever.

                            The guy is a genius and I hope the Swans have the chequebook out to make sure he's not poached by cashed up clubs like Adelaide or Collingwood.

                            Sydney are 5-10 years in front of some of the Melbourne clubs in terms of facilities, fitness, training methods, rehab etc.

                            It gives great confidence that every Swans team that takes to field is so well prepared.
                            "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

                            Comment

                            • sharp9
                              Senior Player
                              • Jan 2003
                              • 2508

                              #15
                              As far as stats goes you multiplied instead of dividing.

                              To think simplistically rather than mathematically.....there is a one in four chance of a player being injured at some time in the season......not a one in four chance of a player being injured during any game.

                              Or, to put it another way the likliehood is that 3 out of four players will be uninjured for the entire season if they have this preparation....

                              Or to put it another way the likelihood is that 5 or 6 players only will miss some games during an entire season if 22 players have the perfect preparation....and that 16 or 17 would play every game for the entire season

                              In other words its very, very low compared to standard injury rates in the AFL.

                              Clear?

                              I believe that we had 9 or 10 players play every game (and probably more if you count the ones who only missed through being dropped) so if we had 9 or 10 players who did not have perfect pre-seasons then that would make the 75% stat about right.

                              Don't forget that a number of our fringe players also played every game in the seconds when they were not required in the firsts.

                              The implication is that 18-20 of our best 22 will have completed the required training by round one and that therefore we may have 12 or so play the entire season, which would be unheard of in the modern era.

                              Or, then again, I could be putting the mox on.
                              "I'll acknowledge there are more talented teams in the competition but I won't acknowledge that there is a better team in the competition" Paul Roos March 2005

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