the value of that win

**sharp9** · 28 July 2003, 02:28 PM

Here's a thing. Throughout the whole match it seemed to me that the Swans were the mature, solid team who were always more likely to grind out a good win than to be blown away for more than fifteen minutes. And it was our mature (over 23) players who made nearly all the important turnarounds.

The interesting thing is that we regard ourselves as a young team but the core group of 15 or so who grind out wins are 23-27 plus 3 or 4 veterans.

In Adelaide speak this is our 2 year window of opportunity to grab a flag.

**swan_song** · 28 July 2003, 02:42 PM

I sure hope so, Sharp...

**barry** · 28 July 2003, 02:57 PM

Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by swan_song
Before the Freo game I did a quick win/loss scenario for the rest of the season and the likelihood of other teams winning or loosing their matches as well. Unfortunately, on those figures I have us finishing in either fifth, sixth or seventh position on equal points with adelaide and, DAMMIT, essendon....
As a prediction this is how I have it after rd 22
Port 72 pts
WCE 66 pts
Collingwood 60 pts
Brisbane 58 pts
Adelaide 56 pts
Sydney 56 pts
Essendon 56pts
Kangaroos 50 pts
______________
Freo 44 pts

I had us as unlikely winners against adelaide, collingwood and brisbane; only possible winners against hawks (we have trouble against hawks and adelaide); likely winners against freo and melbourne...

Very negative thoughts for a team that has won 11 of past 13.
We should comfortably beat Hawthorn, Melbourne and Collingwood at home.
We might snag a win against one of Adelaide or Brisbane. Since these are 8 point games, a win there will be a real boost. I'd say Brisbane is the more vunerable.
Even loosing those two should see us with 60 points and a top 4 finish.

**Sid** · 28 July 2003, 03:16 PM

Swans seemed to be playing with confidence throughout the whole game and was never in desperation to regain the lead. I thought they had us at the start of the last quarter.

The win meant a lot to us and gives us some confidence in the games coming up.

***NMWBloods*** · 28 July 2003, 03:18 PM

Re: Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by barry
Very negative thoughts for a team that has won 11 of past 13.
We should comfortably beat Hawthorn, Melbourne and Collingwood at home.
We might snag a win against one of Adelaide or Brisbane. Since these are 8 point games, a win there will be a real boost. I'd say Brisbane is the more vunerable.
Even loosing those two should see us with 60 points and a top 4 finish.

I think the thoughts are more realistic than very negative. I don't expect that we will "comfortably" beat Collingwood or Hawthorn. Both of these are definite danger games, exactly as the Freo game was. If we are to be a true finals contendor then we should account for Melbourne at the MCG, but anything can happen with us.

I agree that there is more chance of defeating Brisbane than Adelaide, but I don't see us managing to do either.

I think 56, maybe 60, is quite realistic, which gives us a 4th-6th place finish.

**liz** · 28 July 2003, 03:18 PM

Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by swan_song
Freo are a team that the experts would say had far more 'stars' than the Swans (Medhurst, Pavlich, Bell, Croad, Farmer, and Headland for example)

That viewpoint I don't understand - or at least don't agree with.

Croad is a promising, sometimes lazy, gawky key forward who had been dropped two weeks earlier. Pavlich is a very good player, yet to reach his potential. Medhurst is good but hardly a star. Farmer is very inconsistent. Headland has had one good season, playing alongside some of the best in the comp and has done very little this year. Bell is a very good player, but not really in the absolute top bracket of players.

I'm not trying to knock the Dockers - they have the nucleus of a very good squad, especially with the wealth of talented talls they have, and they also played pretty well against us. But star value for star value, I reckon we'd at least match them, if not beat them.

Goodes and Pavlich are similar types of player in that they are tall, mobile and key offensive weapons around the ground for their respective coaches. They are at similar stages of their career and have probably had similar quality seasons this year. Goodes does have the NRS award in his cabinet.

Williams is the equal of Bell, IMO, in terms of what he's achieved and his consistency (Bell's premiership medal aside). Both are the experienced midfield warriors in their respective sides. Bell gets a bit more of the footy, but Willo is more explosive in how he uses it. He's also more versatile than Bell, being able to play back, middle, forward.

Davis is as talented as Farmer IMO. Again, very different types of player but both have the ability to turn a game in a second. Davis is also more versatile though, I reckon, with a lot of time spent on the ball in recent weeks.

O'Loughlin is a twice AA and give me him any time over Medhurst who's had a good rookie season but still to prove he can be a consistent top line player.

Hall works harder and has more all around presence than Croad. He's also kicked more goals.

And of course, Cresswell and Maxfield are consistent, hard-working, smart (most of the time!) footballers.

Of that group mentioned, Pavlich is the only one close to "star" status at the moment, though Hasleby (who you didn't mention) is another fine midfielder.

We match them, star wise, at the moment.

**TheHood** · 28 July 2003, 03:20 PM

I did the same analysis Sharp and came to the same conclusion, if we can snare the Collingwood game on top of the Hawks and Dees, we could finish 4th.

Those teams below us have some very easy games, Coast, Dons and Collingwood have got it easy.

Barry, better take a reality check man, we are getting close the pointy end, the Lions are cranky, the Crows are strong and now we have a severe ruck deficiency.

I would rather err to pesimism that bath in bull****.

**barry** · 28 July 2003, 03:38 PM

Re: Re: Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I think the thoughts are more realistic than very negative. I don't expect that we will "comfortably" beat Collingwood or Hawthorn. Both of these are definite danger games, exactly as the Freo game was. If we are to be a true finals contendor then we should account for Melbourne at the MCG, but anything can happen with us.

I agree that there is more chance of defeating Brisbane than Adelaide, but I don't see us managing to do either.

I think 56, maybe 60, is quite realistic, which gives us a 4th-6th place finish.

Come on. To finish on 56 means we would loose to all the finalist we play for the rest of the season. What are we doing at No. 2 if we cant beat anyone else in the 8, even at home?

1 win from those 3 would be a minimum requirement. Earlier in the year we won 2/3 from Adel,Coll,Bris. Are we worse than earlier in the year?

**barry** · 28 July 2003, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by TheHood
I did the same analysis Sharp and came to the same conclusion, if we can snare the Collingwood game on top of the Hawks and Dees, we could finish 4th.

Those teams below us have some very easy games, Coast, Dons and Collingwood have got it easy.

Barry, better take a reality check man, we are getting close the pointy end, the Lions are cranky, the Crows are strong and now we have a severe ruck deficiency.

I would rather err to pesimism that bath in bull****.

Loosing 2 more games for the year is no bull****. You dont desert the team which has delivered 11 from 13 just because Ball has broken down.

**swan_17** · 28 July 2003, 04:03 PM

Re: Re: Re: Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by barry
1 win from those 3 would be a minimum requirement. Earlier in the year we won 2/3 from Adel,Coll,Bris. Are we worse than earlier in the year?

No I don't think we are worse than at the start of the year but the other team are much better. Brisbane were fantastic on saturday night and don't forget we 're playing them at the GABBA. Adelaide have greatly inproved also and we couldn't beat them here so in adelaide it is a very tall order. Collingwood, as much as I hate them, will have to be acknowledged at the moment for playing great footy. Their last two games have been blood baths and they will be really fired up for the Sydney game as they'll want revenge. While I hope not, I think it is a realistic assestment. Brisbane is the most likely one for us to snatch and if we can beat Adelaide on the weekend it would be a fantastic effort.

**barry** · 28 July 2003, 04:16 PM

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by swan_17
No I don't think we are worse than at the start of the year but the other team are much better. Brisbane were fantastic on saturday night and don't forget we 're playing them at the GABBA. Adelaide have greatly inproved also and we couldn't beat them here so in adelaide it is a very tall order. Collingwood, as much as I hate them, will have to be acknowledged at the moment for playing great footy. Their last two games have been blood baths and they will be really fired up for the Sydney game as they'll want revenge. While I hope not, I think it is a realistic assestment. Brisbane is the most likely one for us to snatch and if we can beat Adelaide on the weekend it would be a fantastic effort.

Easiest to hardest of those three:

1) Collingwood - at home. Have only beat us about once in the last few years. Currently in good form but playing minnows. Form on paper is not as good as ours (11/13). We will start warm favourite.

2) Brisbane - Weakened by injuries, and we have proven we can beat them. We will start minor underdogs.

3) Adelaide - Damn near impossible to win as they are the best team in the comp IMO, who have just had some unlucky close losses. We are in-between ruckman for this match too.

Earlier in the year when we won 2/3 all three we playing as well as now.

**swan_song** · 28 July 2003, 04:38 PM

Lizz...I hope you haven't read into that post that that's what I think. It's what the 'experts' have said over and over and over --ad nauseum -- that sydney is a 'no stars' team. Indeed, it's catching, with even Roosie describing us that way, and Micky O (who coincidentally was also described by one of the same commentators as "one of the highest paid stars in the afl").
I actually think we match up quite well with most teams but with a couple of glaring deficiencies, made even more so now that Ball is out till next year...ruck and a true FB/CHB.

But on a less serious but somewhat cheeky note,

aren't you the same Lizz who once asked me "what does cressa do for the other 98 minutes in a game"? Sorry, I can't help it... I luv the guy -- if I were gay I'd ask him to marry me. And whatcha reckon about that face now eh???

***NMWBloods*** · 28 July 2003, 05:25 PM

Re: Re: Re: Re: the value of that win

Originally posted by barry
Come on. To finish on 56 means we would loose to all the finalist we play for the rest of the season. What are we doing at No. 2 if we cant beat anyone else in the 8, even at home?

1 win from those 3 would be a minimum requirement. Earlier in the year we won 2/3 from Adel,Coll,Bris. Are we worse than earlier in the year?

You think 60 is quite realistic yet 56 is ridiculous!?! The difference is one game! Given that we don't have an easy run home, we could just as easily go 3-2 as 2-3.

Earlier in the year we lost to Hawthorn and we beat Brisbane in Sydney, while also losing to Adelaide in Sydney. Collingwood are playing better now than they were earlier in the year, as is Hawthorn.

Collingwood's form now is arguably as good as ours. They are thumping teams whereas we are just getting across the line. Also take a look at rd 4, 2000 - a game we thought we'd win. In the past five encounters, it is 3-2.

Only minor underdogs against Brisbane?!? You are really overrating us I think. Have a look at the titanic struggle between Port and Brisbane. If we win it would be a fantastic effort, but I think we are really going to have to fight hard.

As for saying "you don't deserve the team" - what a crock of @@@@! How many minutes have you followed this club for!

And BTW - the word is "lose" not "loose"!!!

**Cheer Cheer** · 28 July 2003, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by sharp9
Here's a thing. Throughout the whole match it seemed to me that the Swans were the mature, solid team who were always more likely to grind out a good win than to be blown away for more than fifteen minutes. And it was our mature (over 23) players who made nearly all the important turnarounds.

The interesting thing is that we regard ourselves as a young team but the core group of 15 or so who grind out wins are 23-27 plus 3 or 4 veterans.

In Adelaide speak this is our 2 year window of opportunity to grab a flag.

I'm with you sharp.
People say this a rebuilding year, yet it is far from that. It will be a true rebuilding year when willo, cressa and maxie are gone from the midfield, and replaced by whoever - just for e.g say mcviegh, ablett and schneider.
Also it will be a rebuilding year when Doyle , LRT and Miecklejohn are playing long stints in the ruck ( unfortunately it is going to be that way now with Ball out ).
So, in showing those examples I believe to if we are to have any chance of premiership success it will be this year or next.
Thats why my signature said Swans Will Surprise Many because I always believed if we were going to have any success it would be this year or next.

the value of that win

the value of that win

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment