The Ladder

[Dave]

How close is that top 8?

I can't remember a time it was so even this close to the finals.

[Glenn]

Apart from Port at the top very close..but they will do there choke again come finals time

[gossipcom]

Okay please excuse my full on ramble which is about to occur - I was just doing some statistical work based on stupid things. When your head is flu-ridden it causes you to do stupid things.

I'm hoping we get the following scenario in the next two weeks:

Rest of the season is as follows:

Port Adelaide (64) -> Richmond (A) Adelaide (H)
Adelaide (52) -> Kangaroos (H) Port Adelaide (A)
Collingwood (52) -> Sydney (A) Essendon (H)
Sydney (52) -> Collingwood (H) Melbourne (A)
Fremantle (52) -> Essendon (H) West Coast (A)
Brisbane (50) -> Geelong (H) Western Bulldogs (A)
West Coast (48) -> Melbourne (H) Fremantle (H)
Essendon (48) -> Fremantle (H) Collingwood (A)


Take Port out of the picture (since noone can catch them) :

Maximum points finish (ignoring the fact the top 8 teams play each other in the final 2 rounds):

Adelaide (60)
Collingwood (60)
Sydney (60)
Fremantle (60)
Brisbane (58)
West Coast (56)
Essendon (56)

Home teams only win last 2 rounds:

Adelaide (56)
Collingwood (56)
West Coast (56)
Sydney (56)
Fremantle (56)
Brisbane (54)
Essendon (52)

Away teams only win last 2 rounds:

Adelaide (56)
Collingwood (56)
Sydney (56)
Fremantle (56)
Brisbane (54)
Essendon (52)
West Coast (48)

Higher ranked teams win encounters against each other (aka 1 vs 4, etc)

Collingwood (60)
Fremantle (60)
Brisbane (58)
Adelaide (56)
Sydney (56)
West Coast (52)
Essendon (48)

Lower ranked teams win encounters against each other (aka 1 vs 4, etc)

Adelaide (56)
Sydney (56)
Essendon (56)
Collingwood (52)
West Coast (52)
Fremantle (52)
Brisbane (50)



Higher % teams winning final two matches

Port Adelaide 128.09 (64)

Collingwood - 121.46 (60)
Brisbane 117.08 (58)
Adelaide - 124.34 (56)
West Coast 117.05 (56)
Sydney 115.5 (56)
Fremantle 105.96 (56)
Essendon 110.31 (52)


Lower % teams winning final two matches

Adelaide - 124.34 (56)
Collingwood - 121.46 (56)
Sydney 115.5 (56)
Essendon 110.31 (56)
Fremantle 105.96 (56)
Brisbane 117.08 (50)
West Coast 117.05 (48)

As I said above it's a total flu-ridden ramble assessment but my final conclusion is it ain't over till the fat lady sings - anyone can get those final 3 home final positions.

[Charlie]

So many huge games in the last two weeks. Of particular interest to us are:

Round 21
Sydney vs Collingwood
Essendon vs Fremantle
Adelaide vs Kangaroos

Round 22
Sydney vs Melbourne
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
West Coast vs Fremantle
Collingwood vs Essendon

I'm expecting that Brisbane will win their last two, against Geelong and the Bulldogs fairly easily. West Coast will thump Melbourne next week. Those games are as set in stone as anything.

Ideal:
SYDNEY d Collingwood
FREMANTLE d Essendon
KANGAROOS d Adelaide

SYDNEY d Melbourne
PORT ADELAIDE d Adelaide
FREMANTLE d West Coast
ESSENDON d Collingwood

Which would leave
Port 72
Sydney 60
Brisbane 58
Fremantle 56
Adelaide 52
Collingwood 52
West Coast 52
Essendon 52

(assuming there are no drastic moves in %)

Thus,
Port beat Freo
Sydney beat Brisbane
Adelaide beat Essendon
Collingwood beat West Coast

Leaving
Fremantle vs Adelaide in Perth
Brisbane vs Collingwood in Brisbane

FREMANTLE beat Adelaide
BRISBANE beat Collingwood

Leaving
Port Adelaide vs Brisbane in Adelaide
Sydney vs Fremantle in MELBOURNE

I reckon we'd win that, and hopefully Port vs Brisbane would be the mother of all hard prelims, and they soften up the winner for us!

GO FREMANTLE!!

[Steve]

At least now our destiny is back in our hands.

Win our last 2 and we've got a very good chance of finishing 2nd, and 3rd at absolute worst.

If we lose to either Collingwood or Melbourne we won't have really deserved the double chance anyway.

[CureTheSane]

Quite simple really....

Sydney must win both games, and Port have to beat Adelaide

We most likely finish 2nd

[sydnophile]

Stuff Fremantle! They have no bearing on whether we make the final 4.

If we lose next week, we're out. Same goes for Collingwood.

[barry]

Originally posted by gossipcom
Okay please excuse my full on ramble which is about to occur - I was just doing some statistical work based on stupid things. When your head is flu-ridden it causes you to do stupid things.

I'm hoping we get the following scenario in the next two weeks:

Rest of the season is as follows:

Port Adelaide (64) -> Richmond (A) Adelaide (H)
Adelaide (52) -> Kangaroos (H) Port Adelaide (A)
Collingwood (52) -> Sydney (A) Essendon (H)
Sydney (52) -> Collingwood (H) Melbourne (A)
Fremantle (52) -> Essendon (H) West Coast (A)
Brisbane (50) -> Geelong (H) Western Bulldogs (A)
West Coast (48) -> Melbourne (H) Fremantle (H)
Essendon (48) -> Fremantle (H) Collingwood (A)

If matches go as expected. (ie favourite wins).

Port 72
Syd 60
Bris 58
Adel 56
Coll 56
Freo 56
WC 52
Ess 52

BIG first week of finals. 4 "derbies"!

[Mike_B]

Not quite sure how that works....it looks like your ladder doesn't quite add up as you have Syd beating Coll, Coll beating Ess, Ess beating Freo, Freo beating West Coast, but West Coast finishing on 56...

[gossipcom]

Originally posted by Mike_B
Not quite sure how that works....it looks like your ladder doesn't quite add up as you have Syd beating Coll, Coll beating Ess, Ess beating Freo, Freo beating West Coast, but West Coast finishing on 56...

I think they're hoping Melbourne will produce a miracle and win at Subiaco <g>

[barry]

Originally posted by Mike_B
Not quite sure how that works....it looks like your ladder doesn't quite add up as you have Syd beating Coll, Coll beating Ess, Ess beating Freo, Freo beating West Coast, but West Coast finishing on 56...

Yes you are right. Freo beat WC. WC finishes with 52 points.
Derbies still the same I think.

[penga]

Originally posted by barry
If matches go as expected. (ie favourite wins).

Port 72
Syd 60
Bris 58
Adel 56
Coll 56
Freo 56
WC 52
Ess 52

BIG first week of finals. 4 "derbies"!

wow, that'd be amazing! derby first week of finals, some great spectacles there! thatd be how id expect it all to finish

[Craig]

Then if we beat Brisbane and Adelaide happened to knock off Port, we would get a home prelim final and Adelaide would have to play theirs at the MCG.

[penga]

Originally posted by Craig
Then if we beat Brisbane and Adelaide happened to knock off Port, we would get a home prelim final and Adelaide would have to play theirs at the MCG.

speaking of which, what is the record with port vs adelaide, who has the wood on who?

[j s]

Originally posted by Craig
Then if we beat Brisbane and Adelaide happened to knock off Port, we would get a home prelim final and Adelaide would have to play theirs at the MCG.

That's the scenario that I have been expounding too. We would, in that case most likely be playing Port in the PF.

And four "Derbies" (assuming that you can call Syd-Bris a derby) in the first week. That would have to get a record first week crowd total. The AFL beanies must warming up their money counting fingers already.

80,000 at the G
70,000 at SA
50,000 at FP
sellout at Subi (whatever size that is)