Who do we want to win the other matches?

[gossipcom]

Okay I was trying to work this situation out and it's still wracking my brain.

Out of these matches what would the ideal situation be for us?

I know top priority is us winning tonight.


Adelaide vs Kangaroos
Essendon vs Fremantle
Brisbane vs Geelong
West Coast vs Melbourne

****

At the moment it looks like Essendon will beat Fremantle.

The Adelaide/Kangaroos match is very close at half time 4 points - if the Kangroos had kicked efficiently they would have had a massive lead by now.

So out of the matches what would be the best results for us in terms of top 4 aspirations.

[PatFoyFanClub]

Beat Collingwood first!

That would be a nice start........

[hammo]

If the Kangaroos can beat Adelaide which looks like a big chance, then the Swans will definitely claim 2nd if they win tonight and next week.

[gossipcom]

Fremantle won against Essdendon and Kangroos held on against Adelaide.

So at this moment there are 5 teams on 52 points:

In order of percentage:

Adelaide
Collingwood
Sydney
Essendon
Fremantle

Whoever wins the big match tonight goes into second position. While if Brisbane beats Geelong they'll jump into 3rd and West Coast can jump onto 52 points with a win tomorrow.

I think it's safe to say this apart from the top spot it's the toughest year ever to pick where all the teams will finish.

[Mike_B]

On the basis of tonight's results, we want West Coast to lose tomorrow.

This will leave the ladder at:

Port (64/68)
Collingwood (56)
Brisbane (54)
Adelaide (52)
Sydney (52)
Essendon (52)
Fremantle (52)
West Coast (48)

Then next week, we want Port to beat Adelaide, Collingwood to beat Essendon, West Coast to beat Freo, Brisbane to lose, and of course Sydney to win.

This would then leave the ladder at:

Port (68/72)
Collingwood (60)
Sydney (56)
Brisbane (54)
Adelaide (52)
Essendon (52)
West Coast (52)
Fremantle (52).

If West Coast win tomorrow, we would then want Freo to win the Western derby, as we have them covered on percentage.

[thommoone]

west coast could win tomorrow than have freo beat them next week. thats prob more likely than them losing tomorrow and winning next week

[gossipcom]

Originally posted by Mike_B
This would then leave the ladder at:

Port (68/72)
Collingwood (60)
Sydney (56)
Brisbane (54)
Adelaide (52)
Essendon (52)
West Coast (56)
Fremantle (52).

Mike_B thanks for the summary.

I'm trying to think which would be worse Port Adelaide away or maybe having the daunting task of playing Adelaide at home.

*Nadine shudders at both*

I'd much prefer to finish third so we can have another crack at Collingwood <g> but you'd need a hell of a lot to go our way for that to happen.

[Mike_B]

Well, the main one that seems to be really unrealistic in terms of all those results is Brisbane losing to the Bulldogs. The others are all perfectly feasible. So while my last post was a best case scenario (3rd, playing Collingwood in Melb), a trip to Adelaide to face the Power is not out of the question.

Plain and simple though, we MUST beat Melbourne next week if we are to at least have a chance of making it to week 2 of the finals. If we have to play an elimination final away from home, we can virtually kiss everything goodbye.

[sydnophile]

Originally posted by Mike_B
Then next week, we want Port to beat Adelaide, Collingwood to beat Essendon, West Coast to beat Freo, Brisbane to lose, and of course Sydney to win.
....
If West Coast win tomorrow, we would then want Freo to win the Western derby, as we have them covered on percentage.

I agree. The main things needed to make the Final 4 are for West Coast to lose tomorrow (or more likely next week) and for Port to beat Adelaide, assuming everything else goes according to plan.
So that looks pretty hopeful.

A good site test out possibilities is:

http://www.allthestats.com/stats/ladderpredict.asp

[liz]

I reckon from here, we might as well settle for 5th. Working on the basis that the Wet Toasters should win tomorrow, we'll be in 6th place at the end of the round, ahead of Freo and Essendon.

Now (and all this assumes we win next week)

Adelaide are a decent chance of losing the Showdown or Derby or whatever they call it. (Although I'm a bit nervous about Port taking it too easy.) Even if Essendon win, it should be a tight game so hopefully percentage won't come into play. And we'll finish above at least one of the Perth teams given they play each other in r22. If Freo win, we'll finish above them both in all likelihood.

5th is pretty realistic and I'd be optimistic about our chances (at home) against any of Freo, Essendon, West Coast. Adelaide I would be nervous about, for obvious reasons.

We can sneak into 4th if Freo win the Derby, Port the Showdown and the Pies beat the Bombers. But then we'd face a trip to AAMI to play the Power, and while I think they face a lot of pressure about their perceived finals shakiness, they'll be very switched on for that game.

Sure we'd still get to play another week but coming off a pummelling (possibly). And in week 2 there would be no guarantee we'd get a home final, especially if Brisbane lose to Collingwood in the first week of the finals, though I suspect the AFL would bank in that case.

So, what am I saying? Actually, I haven't the foggiest. My head hurts too much.

[port1978]

Originally posted by sydnophile
I agree. The main things needed to make the Final 4 are for West Coast to lose tomorrow (or more likely next week) and for Port to beat Adelaide, assuming everything else goes according to plan.

We'll do our best for ya next week!

[robbieando]

Here's an easy option, let the results play out and hope for the best. The weather can't that bad again for us and our skills have been better this season.

Win next week wrap up 5th Spot at least, get a home final against a lesser side and then hopefully have some luck and win that and then hope for the best.

[Mike_B]

That's the thing though Robbie, even if we do win, if other results don't go our way, we could still finish as low as 7th.

[Nico]

You little beauty, we are in the finals. Not bad for the favourites to win the wooden spoon. Enjoy the experience no matter where it takes us in the next few weeks. Boy I love these rebuilding years.