wobbles v essendon (spoilers)

[gossipcom]

The match is on now.

Who would we prefer to win this match?

I've been trying to look at the alternatives - if Pies won they'd wrap up 2nd position and would most likely play Brisbane in the 1st week of the finals.

If Pies lost, Brisbane would most likely go into 2nd while any of the 6 other teams could go from 3 to 8.

[Xie Shan]

I hate to say it, but a Pies win would be better - Essendon's % is only about 0.54% behind ours, so could overtake us. A bit of a worry hearing that it could rain in Melbourne tomorrow, so it will make a big winning margin pretty unlikely.

So....Go Pies!

[gossipcom]

Actually if Bombers won a very close win (less than 20 points) it wouldn't affect their %. It's if they win by 30 or above that would put them above the Swans.

While a Bombers win to the margins would cause the Pies percentage to fall to approx 119%.

[Mike_B]

I'm goin for the Pies - very unlikely that we could overtake them due to percentage. If they beat the Bummers, give us a better chance of finishing higher.

[j s]

Watching the scores, it sems like it's a ripper of a game. Pies by one point at the 22 minutes mark of the 3Q

[robbieando]

I'm going for Collingwood because if Essendon win and we win and they improve their % to overtake us, we could end up 7th without losing and have to play Essendon in Melbourne

[Xie Shan]

wobbles v essendon (spoilers)

well, given that this has turned out to be a close, hard-fought scrap, with collingwood by 11 points into the last quarter, whatever happens now won't be of much consequence to the Swans - Essendon's % shouldn't worry us if we win, we probably won't catch collingwood on % either.

Great match on the radio, bombers kicked a goal as I was typing this! hope it goes down 2 the wire, good for whoever plays them next week

[gossipcom]

I wanted it to be a nice close game so whoever plays these two teams can run riot against them next week <vbg>

One thing Collingwood shouldn't complain about this week are the free kicks - they've got the advantage this week.

Pies home and if Brisbane win they'll have to play them first week of the finals

So the big question will be if Sydney can win tomorrow what pressure they can put on Brisbane, Adelaide and Weagles, because looking at it they're the other teams that will be playing for those 3 and 4 positions on %.

[Mike_B]

Pies by 16, 28:30 final qtr (funnily enough the score I tipped).

Means banking doesn't have to happen in week 1. Now we gotta make sure we win to make sure we are as clear of the Bummers as possible.

[gossipcom]

If Lions play Pies and Pies lose they'll play in week 2 of the finals and Holland would most likely be back in the team - if that happened, can you imagine the poor bugger who's put on him?

[Mike_B]

With the Pies winning by 16 - the following scenarios apply to keep ahead of Essendon on percentage should we lose (Sydney scores listed, and losing margin to keep ahead of Ess follows):

60 points - loss by 24 or less
70 points - loss by 23 or less
80 points - loss by 22 or less
90 points - loss by 21 or less

Having gone through these 4, I guess its a case for each 10 points we score, if we lose, we have to lose by 1 point less....

[gossipcom]

Thanks for the scenarios Mike.

It's going to be interesting to see if anyone can kick 100 points in the rain since tonight they didn't manage to kick close to 100.

We can always hope a miracle occurs and Brisbane loses to Bulldogs and we beat Melbourne with a chance to go into 3rd

[Mike_B]

Just doing some more stuff on what we would need to move in front of Collingwood.

143-0
150-5
160-14
170-22
180-30

Soooo, its virtually impossible for us to overtake Collingwood.....

[gossipcom]

Originally posted by Mike_B
Just doing some more stuff on what we would need to move in front of Collingwood.

Considering they're 8 points ahead of us at this moment I could definitely see why it's impossible

If there wasn't already the pressure on the derby matches, I think Collingwood's win has only added to it.

Now Freo and Weagles will try to fight for that 4th position or the 5th one to host a match.

While Adelaide if they win will be playing PA in the first week (since they've got the best %) but if they lose they'd have to play away and seriously would you want to play Adelaide in an elimination final - it would be a rather daunting task.

[Mike_B]

Yep, that would be an issue....long week...and I'm obviously brain dead!!!!

But take it as being similar to what we'd need to beat Melb by to move ahead of Adelaide should they win. Would be a similar margin required, based on a slightly higher percentage for the Crows than Collingwood. So we still need to win by 25 goals to give us a chance of finishing 4th should the Crows win.