The Scenarios as they stand now

[Mike_B]

With our win, we can still finish as high as 3rd, but would need the Lions to lose, and West Coast and Adelaide to not win (ie a draw would be good enough).

If West Coast and Adelaide win, they will finish ahead of us, as a 1 point victory that would mean their percentage dropping below ours needs to be in the order of 250-249, so very unlikely.

So, we're looking at a home final now, it just depends when because we can't finish lower than 6th.

Go Freo and go Port!!!!!

[gossipcom]

We definitely need the derbies to go our way that's for sure - I love when they said we're in 3rd position at the moment, purely because the other teams haven't played yet

[gloveski]

Most likely finish 4th or 5th hopefully both Freo and Port win.

If we finish 4th lets hope that Port has a real tuff game against Adeliade.

[chewyonyourboot]

Well let's cheer on those dockers and those Teal clad South Australians..!

At least they are probably the least offensive of all the teams to support..

What happens if they both lose?

We get two chances right? But do we get home finals?

[gossipcom]

The possible scenarios:

If Lions, Weagles and Crows all lose we'll finish 3rd and will play Collingwood away.

If Lions win, Weagles and Crows lose we'll finish 4th and play Power away.

If Lions and Weagles win and Crows lose, well finish 5th on % and host an elimination home final.

If Lions, Weagles and Crows win, we'll finish 6th on % and host an elimination home final (since the Pies will be hosting a final, 6th place team can now host a final).

[Mike_B]

Assuming Brisbane, Freo and Port win, we would play Port there in Week 1. If we were to lose that game we would play at home in week 2.

The only way we wouldn't get a home final is if we were to beat Port, and Brisbane were to beat Collingwood, then we would have to play a preliminary final at the MCG.

I was just thinking that if we are going to finish 5th, I'd like it to be because West Coast beat Freo and Port beat the Crows, meaning a home final week 1 vs the Dockers. A situation where we finish 5th with the Dockers beat West Coast and the Crows beat Port would see another showdown and derby in week 1, with the other 2 finals being Coll v Bris and Syd v Ess (this assumes that Freo don't absolutely wallop the Weagles dropping their percentage below the Bummers - VERY unlikely).

[liz]

Originally posted by chewyonyourboot
We get two chances right? But do we get home finals?

If we lose the first one we should get a home final in the second round (obviously this assumes we finish 4th - otherwise we're out) but it will rely on either the AFL banking a final or the other "home team" being Collingwood. Either is a realistic outcome, with the Pies probably playing the Lions next week - their bogey team even at the 'G.

If we finish 5th or 6th we'll get a home final in week 1 but from there on we'll be on the road.

[chewyonyourboot]

Ok..got it! Thanks for that everybody, you've explained it really well...

[j s]

Re: The Scenarios as they stand now

Originally posted by Mike_B
If West Coast and Adelaide win, they will finish ahead of us, as a 1 point victory that would mean their percentage dropping below ours needs to be in the order of 250-249, so very unlikely.

You forgot one option Mike!! If Brisbane has a 400 point draw they will stay behind us. (What a goal kicking frenzy that would be)

[gossipcom]

Lions are hammering Bulldogs at the moment though the Bulldogs just for this 3rd quarter have remembered how to play footy it seems as both teams have kicked 4 goals in the quarter - but they're still losing by a hell of a lot

Since Weagles are just beating Freo at halftime (unless Freo can turn things around in the second half), we need Port to beat Adelaide to capture 5th position or else we'll be in 6th so it'll either be Freo or Dons for us.

[nicko18]

assuming the ladder finishes like this:

1. port
2. coll
3. bris
4. syd
5. freo
6. adel
7. wce
8. ess

only ways we will not get a home game is if:

port def syd
coll def bris

or

syd def port
bris def coll

[gossipcom]

If we finished 4 and beat Port at Football Park then we deserve to have that week off

If that happened I wouldn't mind not having a Home Final if it meant going straight to the Preliminary Final.

[nicko18]

If freo win...

chance of a home final: 72%

assuming odds
port 1.75, adel 2.10
port 1.45 v syd 2.75
coll 1.80 v bris 2.00

[gossipcom]

Well we can right now pencil (or should that be pen) in the 2 vs 3 match since Brisbane just wrapped up their match against the Bulldogs - they had 12 different goal kickers. I'm wondering if Voss was injured or rested because he only had 19 possessions and that didn't seem to change at all in the 2nd half.

So replay of the 2002 GF for the First Qualifying Final.

*now fingers are crossed for Freo and PA to get up in their respective matches*

[j s]

Brisbane has now claimed third and Freo is comfortably ahead at 3Q time. Assuming Freo keeps the lead and Port wins then we get 4th and play Port.

So What will happen then....

If we then beat Port and the Pies also win then we get a home PF, possibly against Brisbane but if Brisbane wins we will miss out (unless the AFL can swing a deal with the which seems unlikely)