Stats, Strategies and Matchups: Smoking the Lions den

[JudesaGun]

OK, so enough excitement about the game and crowd size threads, let's talk how teh Swans can go about making the GF by discusssing footy....

Here's a couple of my observations:

- Who Kirk tags could be vital. Is it worth committing him to a player who is only at 80% but only needs a few touches to change the face of a game or is he better on someone like Black who can rack up the touches and be dangerous all over teh ground
- Brown had the "potential" to rip us up last time but was inaccurate. Bolton held him well but Brown has a reputation fo not being able to run out 4 quarters. We MUST neutralise this guy in the first 20 mins. Is Bolts the answer again? Leo?
- Bazza has to committ to the lead and not a wrestle - he will and will need to have a big day again to cover for Mickey
- Nick needs to get back his accuracy which hasn't quite been there is teh last few weeks
- Can Schauble keep Lynch goaless again? Big ask..i think he could do it...
- Worth playing Doyle? Does another big man = another liability. If it rains, the last thing we want is a repeat of round 21
- O'Keefe will be a valuable edition
This forward line looks OK to me:
Davis Hall O'Keefe
Nicks Stevens Schnieder

[Reggi]

If it rains it's even more important that Doyle plays - in the wet big strong rucks just bash the footy out of their.

We shouldn't forget we have another handy "run with" player in Crouch - who can go with Akermanis or someone.

Voss can't play the entire game - and we are a more accountable side than Adelaide.

With Leppitsch playing I think Hall will struggle - will Stevens be a forward foil?

Our goal-kicking could be a worry - lots of running goals are inn order.

[Go Swannies]

We need Doyle or we just exhaust Goodes.

What about moving Saddington forward?

And then Stevens stays back? (Did well in defence last game.)

Lethal knows how we beat him last time. I think he'll try to play it close and physical because he can't match our pace. He'll certainly try to bottle up Baz so we HAVE to have other options to goal.

[desredandwhite]

The key to containing Lynch will rest in the midfield's ability to put pressure on his delivery. If the ball is coming in low and fast, even Andrew Dunkley on speed and steroids will find it tough to stop him kicking a bag.

On the other hand, Brown's effectiveness can be reduced if we are able to drag him further up the ground through lack of supply. Up in Brisbane, he still got lots of the ball after 1/4 time, but most of it on a wing etc.

Bazza will need to lead long and hard up around CHF - if he is trapped in the goalsquare, the Brisbane defenders will keep him quiet very easily - IMHO he is not a great contested mark.

Above all, can we handle the pressure in front of a big crowd at home? The last two home games were big events, and we crumbled. Time for a little payback from those two nights.

[JudesaGun]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
We need Doyle or we just exhaust Goodes.

What about moving Saddington forward?

And then Stevens stays back? (Did well in defence last game.)

Lethal knows how we beat him last time. I think he'll try to play it close and physical because he can't match our pace. He'll certainly try to bottle up Baz so we HAVE to have other options to goal.

Sadds up forward sounds like a decent idea but i don't like Stevens down back. he's good as that second defender who comes in for the punch but one-on-one could spell trouble. Leppa won't play on Hall, he's too slow...either Michael or Bradshaw...Bradshaw probably doesn't have teh strength so i'd probably go for the ex-pie. Schieder could really be a wild card. He had a great day against Brisbane when we played them in Sydney and i don't think they have anyone who could keep up with him. No doubt Leigh will try to get us to bomb it long instaed of chipping to find the open man as we did last time we met. Just means teh boys MUST stick to their game plan!

[JudesaGun]

Originally posted by desredandwhite
The key to containing Lynch will rest in the midfield's ability to put pressure on his delivery. If the ball is coming in low and fast, even Andrew Dunkley on speed and steroids will find it tough to stop him kicking a bag.

On the other hand, Brown's effectiveness can be reduced if we are able to drag him further up the ground through lack of supply. Up in Brisbane, he still got lots of the ball after 1/4 time, but most of it on a wing etc.

Bazza will need to lead long and hard up around CHF - if he is trapped in the goalsquare, the Brisbane defenders will keep him quiet very easily - IMHO he is not a great contested mark.

Above all, can we handle the pressure in front of a big crowd at home? The last two home games were big events, and we crumbled. Time for a little payback from those two nights.

Collingwood game shoudl keep us in good stead. I think we had a bit of stage fright last time. Start is the key!

[swans_premiers]

we have plenty of avenues to goals..

we have hall, schneider, nicks and davis up forward. Also we can rotate Goodes, Doyle, LRT, Stevens, even Saddo if he plays through the forward line.

Also we can put O'keefe up there.

And we have running midfielders who can kick a goal or two each in cressa, willo, maxie, bolton, fossie. and all the others but I'd expect cressa, willo and maxie to get bout 3-4 goals between em.

[swans_premiers]

Originally posted by JudesaGun
Sadds up forward sounds like a decent idea but i don't like Stevens down back. he's good as that second defender who comes in for the punch but one-on-one could spell trouble. Leppa won't play on Hall, he's too slow...either Michael or Bradshaw...Bradshaw probably doesn't have teh strength so i'd probably go for the ex-pie. Schieder could really be a wild card. He had a great day against Brisbane when we played them in Sydney and i don't think they have anyone who could keep up with him. No doubt Leigh will try to get us to bomb it long instaed of chipping to find the open man as we did last time we met. Just means teh boys MUST stick to their game plan!

Luke power on Schneider?

[Go Swannies]

If it rains we'll have to bomb forward. I think that's what did us against the Pies - we played a short chip, dry weather game and dropped too many of the cute short passes.

[JudesaGun]

They wouldn't put Power on Schieder, he's now one of their top line midfieders and they wouldn't want him taken out of teh play. Maybe if Schnieds plays in the middle put Roosy would just put him in the goalsqaure as soon as he got that matchup. Maybe someone like Copeland?

[gloveski]

Johnson may line up on him if they go with the idea of making Schneids more accountable than usual or they could use someone like mcgrath to match Schneids pace.Copeland would most likely get davis

[motorace_182]

Doyle in the goalsquare is the best bet up forward. Allows a forward rucking option as well as Bazz and also will have to draw a tall like Michael or Leppitsch or another ruckman

[JudesaGun]

Doyle up forward would work is its not wet. Rhino and Scnieds could also cause some problems drifting through. What about teh ruvck - who will they put on Goodes? Will it matter?

[robbieando]

1 - Hall: Must play his normal role. Without O'Loughlin, Roos must be tempted to push him back to Full Foward at times, but as was shown against Port he is more value to us around CHF where he can throw his body about. At Full Forward watch the Lions drop players back onto him.

2 - Davis: Later in the season he has played well up the ground into midfield, thus his impact around goal was lost. Now with O'Loughlin out he has dropped back into the forward line, which I feel is a great move on Roos part because he is better for us there than in the midfield. Just needs to get the ball twice a quarter to really hurt the Lions.

4 - Mathews: I would give him the job on Voss. Plain and simple, he can negate players well and can keep up with him. Doesn't have to stop him getting possession, just limit the impact of those possessions.

5 - O'Keefe: He should take O'Loughlin's role over. None of this starting him on the bench. Play him the entire game, tell him to get near the ball, let him back his judgement

6 - C.Bolton: Give him the job on Jon Brown. Why? Not only because he beat him last time, but because around the ground he can keep up with Brown and for his size is a strong as they come.

8 - Cresswell: Just tell him to find the ball, tell him to get into packs, tell him to run ahead of teammates, tell him to do what he normally does and thats get the ball and get it forward. If around Forward 50, tell him to shoot at goal, one of the best in the business at putting them away.

10 - Williams: Same as Cresswell, just get the ball. Though he must be careful of his tagger. Hart is the best in the business (other than Kirk) Taggers rarely bother Williams, but Hart is better than most taggers.

11 - Maxfield: Provides so much drive off the wing. Clearly past his best, but can still pinpoint a kick into the forward line, can still lead from the front and can still outrun most players. I would tell him to provide an option for teammates attacking from the defence.

12 - Fosdike: Must provide the link between the Midfield and the Forward line. Just get him to put pressure on defenders running out of our attack.

15 - Doyle: Clearly not 100% fit, but at this stage we don't need him to be. Won't ruck for as long as we would normally get him to and will spend a bit of time on the pine. But he isn't just there to provide Goodes with a rest, he is dangerous in front of goal. Put him in the goalsquare to start the match. The Lions don't have a defender who can go with him and their ruckman are more important to them around the ground than in defence. If we can force one of their ruckman down back, it gives Goodes a better chance of running this game on HIS terms.

16 - Stevens: I think we have found his best use in this team and that is floating across the backline. With Saddington back we can swap the 2 of them on and off the bench. This role is important in stopping Lynch in getting the better of Schauble.

17 - Kennelly: Just run off the half back flank setting up our drives forward, thats all we need him for. Though when the ball is coming into our defence he plays an important role either getting the ball or locking it up when it spills to the ground. This part of his game can't be forgotten.

21 - Barry: Same as Kennelly in our attacking drives, but defencively he must take an opponant which he has done well all year.

22 - Saddington: Takes over from Stevens role wise from the Port game, but as match fitness isn't 100% you'll find him on and off the bench a bit early and maybe even down forward if we need another option down there.

23 - Nicks: Off the bench this week for mind, did well against Port throwing his body around down in the forward and its something I would have him do again

24 - J.Bolton: Coming off one of his best game impact wise and will be wanting to improve his possessionary impact as well. Just have him at the centre bounch to attack the ball like no tomorrow and get the ball to a teammate.

25 - Schauble: Just has to limit Lynch to 1 or 2 goals and in the form he is in I see no reason why he can't.

28 - Crouch: I would have him tag Akermanis, has the pace to keep up with him and importantly the defenive skills as well. Has kept him quiet both times this season.

30 - Roberts-Thomson: Our third ruck option off the bench. If things go wrong early for us I might try him downback in the Stevens/Saddington role.

31 - Kirk: Who to tag?? Well I think Simon Black HAS to be the one. Because Black gets the possessions which hurt. Sizewise I think this is the perfect matchup. If Voss get too out of hand early then I would move Kirk onto him. But early on Black is who I would put Kirk on.

36 - Schneider: Place him at the feet of the packs in the forward line and watch him have an impact. If Lappin gets to out of hand I might be tempted to put Schnieder on him for a while to see how he goes. I see Adam as a midfielder more than anything and this could be the match up that troubles Lappin.

39 - Goodes: Put him in the ruck and watch him burn up the field. Has had 2 field days against the Lions this year and thats because the Lions don't have anyone to go with him for an entire match. Thats the key

My Line Up then

B: Saddington Schauble Barry
HB: Kennelly C.Bolton Mathews
C: Maxfield Kirk Williams
HF: Crouch Hall Schneider
F: O'Keefe Doyle Davis
R: Goodes Bolton Cresswell
Int: Nicks Roberts-Thomson Stevens Fosdike

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by JudesaGun
They wouldn't put Power on Schieder, he's now one of their top line midfieders and they wouldn't want him taken out of teh play.

I've seen him play back pocket before, particularly if the other midfield guns (Voss, Aker, Lappin, Black, Hart) are firing.