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Bookies say Lions, but the form guide favours the Swans
By Rohan Connolly
September 16, 2003
In football, it's said, perception is often at least 12 months behind reality. And Sydney in 2003 might be the best example the AFL has seen for some time.
Take Saturday's preliminary final against Brisbane, for example. The Swans have had the week off, and "resting" teams have won 14 of the 18 preliminary finals since the final eight was introduced. Sydney has beaten the Lions twice already this season, home and away.
But yesterday, for a final to be played in Sydney, and at a ground where Brisbane has never played previously, the Lions were a hot $1.50 favourite, the Swans, considering their record, a very generous $2.40.
On one level you can understand it. Brisbane, like the champion it still is, sent out some very ominous warning signals late in Friday night's eclipse of Adelaide. It is clearly the established heavyweight of these four remaining challengers, while the Swans are the precocious up-and-coming pug.
But while Brisbane has swept plenty of other challengers away in the rush with its talent and sheer physical strength, it hasn't been able to do it to the Swans this season, despite having beaten the Swans the previous six times they had met. Mainly because the Lions have been too busy trying to catch up with them.
Sydney's mobility right across its 22 has been a brilliant asset all season, but perhaps never more obviously so than against Brisbane, which, for all its capabilities, doesn't have the same pace or sustained running power.
When the Swans upset the Lions by 14 points in round seven, it was Brisbane that ran out of options first. Brett Kirk, as soon became customary, took care of the Lions' most potentially damaging midfielder, Nigel Lappin.
Jarred Crouch did such a good job on Jason Akermanis that the Brownlow medallist was dragged, having just four touches to his name, and Paul Williams more than matched Lion skipper Michael Voss, not only curbing his influence, but racking up twice as many disposals in the process.
Of the so-called "fab four", only Simon Black was his usual efficient self, a loophole the Swans closed to a degree when Kirk, pictured below, picked him up in the round-20 clash at the Gabba. That, in particular, was the result that would have the Lions a lot more anxious about this Saturday than much of the football world seems to think they should be.
Interestingly, that day, the "fab four" racked up about 100 possessions between them, yet Brisbane still lost, a double unheard of over its past couple of dominant seasons.
Perhaps that's because Sydney has so many running players that there's always at least one or two left over, providing opposing coaching boxes with headaches, unfavourable match-ups, or both. In round seven, it was Jude Bolton, Nic Fosdike and Adam Schneider who did the damage. Last time, Bolton again, Daryn Cresswell and Williams.
And on each occasion, Sydney has been able to generate midfield-like statistics, not to mention attacking rebound, from "half-backs" but essentially two more running players in Leo Barry and Tadhg Kennelly. In round seven, they shared 29 disposals, in round 20 a staggering (for two backmen) 39. Compared with that sort of mobility, flexibility and sheer running power, even the Lions look a little stodgy.
The past two meetings have also highlighted one considerable edge the underdog for this game holds over the favourite - efficiency; and another department that may have been seriously underestimated - its defence.
In both Swans victories they have had fewer shots at goal than their opponent, yet won. Despite winning the ball less this season than all bar one opponent (Brisbane is third in the same category), the Swans get the absolute maximum value from every touch, ranked first for scoring conversion, and recording the fewest inside 50s per goal.
Sydney's back line doesn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of the opposition, but it certainly gets the job done, with the fourth-lowest points-against tally. Andrew Schauble has been able to neutralise Alastair Lynch and, at the Gabba, Craig Bolton put the shutters up on Jonathan Brown after he had threatened to destroy Jason Saddington.
In 12 months' time, the novelty of Sydney's rise having worn off, this game would be seen as the even-money bet that form and recent history say it should be. But not yet. If Sydney manages to beat Brisbane a third time in 2003, you can bet on plenty more raised eyebrows, even if they shouldn't be.
By Rohan Connolly
September 16, 2003
In football, it's said, perception is often at least 12 months behind reality. And Sydney in 2003 might be the best example the AFL has seen for some time.
Take Saturday's preliminary final against Brisbane, for example. The Swans have had the week off, and "resting" teams have won 14 of the 18 preliminary finals since the final eight was introduced. Sydney has beaten the Lions twice already this season, home and away.
But yesterday, for a final to be played in Sydney, and at a ground where Brisbane has never played previously, the Lions were a hot $1.50 favourite, the Swans, considering their record, a very generous $2.40.
On one level you can understand it. Brisbane, like the champion it still is, sent out some very ominous warning signals late in Friday night's eclipse of Adelaide. It is clearly the established heavyweight of these four remaining challengers, while the Swans are the precocious up-and-coming pug.
But while Brisbane has swept plenty of other challengers away in the rush with its talent and sheer physical strength, it hasn't been able to do it to the Swans this season, despite having beaten the Swans the previous six times they had met. Mainly because the Lions have been too busy trying to catch up with them.
Sydney's mobility right across its 22 has been a brilliant asset all season, but perhaps never more obviously so than against Brisbane, which, for all its capabilities, doesn't have the same pace or sustained running power.
When the Swans upset the Lions by 14 points in round seven, it was Brisbane that ran out of options first. Brett Kirk, as soon became customary, took care of the Lions' most potentially damaging midfielder, Nigel Lappin.
Jarred Crouch did such a good job on Jason Akermanis that the Brownlow medallist was dragged, having just four touches to his name, and Paul Williams more than matched Lion skipper Michael Voss, not only curbing his influence, but racking up twice as many disposals in the process.
Of the so-called "fab four", only Simon Black was his usual efficient self, a loophole the Swans closed to a degree when Kirk, pictured below, picked him up in the round-20 clash at the Gabba. That, in particular, was the result that would have the Lions a lot more anxious about this Saturday than much of the football world seems to think they should be.
Interestingly, that day, the "fab four" racked up about 100 possessions between them, yet Brisbane still lost, a double unheard of over its past couple of dominant seasons.
Perhaps that's because Sydney has so many running players that there's always at least one or two left over, providing opposing coaching boxes with headaches, unfavourable match-ups, or both. In round seven, it was Jude Bolton, Nic Fosdike and Adam Schneider who did the damage. Last time, Bolton again, Daryn Cresswell and Williams.
And on each occasion, Sydney has been able to generate midfield-like statistics, not to mention attacking rebound, from "half-backs" but essentially two more running players in Leo Barry and Tadhg Kennelly. In round seven, they shared 29 disposals, in round 20 a staggering (for two backmen) 39. Compared with that sort of mobility, flexibility and sheer running power, even the Lions look a little stodgy.
The past two meetings have also highlighted one considerable edge the underdog for this game holds over the favourite - efficiency; and another department that may have been seriously underestimated - its defence.
In both Swans victories they have had fewer shots at goal than their opponent, yet won. Despite winning the ball less this season than all bar one opponent (Brisbane is third in the same category), the Swans get the absolute maximum value from every touch, ranked first for scoring conversion, and recording the fewest inside 50s per goal.
Sydney's back line doesn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of the opposition, but it certainly gets the job done, with the fourth-lowest points-against tally. Andrew Schauble has been able to neutralise Alastair Lynch and, at the Gabba, Craig Bolton put the shutters up on Jonathan Brown after he had threatened to destroy Jason Saddington.
In 12 months' time, the novelty of Sydney's rise having worn off, this game would be seen as the even-money bet that form and recent history say it should be. But not yet. If Sydney manages to beat Brisbane a third time in 2003, you can bet on plenty more raised eyebrows, even if they shouldn't be.
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