Tweet
Well, it is that time of the year again when the Australian sporting calendar looks a bit thin.
Already the cricket is being affected by rain, the spring racing carnival and the Davis Cup final have come and gone and the Australian Open tennis is still several weeks away.
And of course the 2003 AFL season is a distant memory.
So with little else to occupy the thoughts of sports fanatics, it?s hard not to already be thinking about your team?s prospects for 2004.
While Brisbane fans will be dreaming of a record-equalling fourth successive flag and Collingwood fans will be hoping it?s a case of third time lucky, supporters of the other 14 clubs know their teams have some improving to do if they hope to make ground on the teams that have contested the past two grand finals.
And whilst it would be crazy to make any definitive predictions about 2004 when the Wizard Home Loans Cup does not even start for two months ? here is afl.com.au?s very early thoughts about next season.
THE TEAM TO BEAT:
Brisbane Lions: They have already done the impossible and now they could do the unthinkable by equalling Collingwood?s record of four successive premierships of 1927-30 if they can win the premiership in 2004. And who or what is going to stop Leigh Matthews? all-conquering team from succeeding again? Unlike other recent premiership teams (notably the Essendon side of 2000) the Lions have been able to keep their team intact with 2003 Norm Smith Medallist Simon Black the latest to sign another contract with Brisbane and have another crack at premiership glory. And the Lions have shown no signs of losing the hunger for success with the only possible query on them being whether champion spearhead Alastair Lynch finally begins to slow down considering he will turn 36 during next season.
THE CONTENDERS:
Collingwood: It would be easy to mount a case that the Pies have blown their chance of premiership glory and that they may struggle to bounce back from a second successive grand final loss. But it would be a mistake to write off what is still a young team on the up as well as their veteran coach Mick Malthouse. The Pies still have the basics needed for a champion side in a star ruckman in Josh Fraser, proven match-winners in attack in Anthony Rocca and Chris Tarrant and a star midfield led by 2003 Brownlow Medallist Nathan Buckley. The Pies just need more of their youngsters such as Rhyce Shaw, Richard Cole, Matthew Lokan and Alan Didak to keep improving while their only notable loss from last year?s team is Heath Scotland.
Sydney: The Swans were the success story of 2003 when they reached the preliminary final in a year in which they were tipped by many ? including this column ? to finish last. But we won?t be making the same mistake this season. The Swans? only notable loss since last season is the retired Daryn Cresswell while their only players who could be put in the veteran category are Stuart Maxfield and Paul Williams. They will also have Jason Ball returning from injury to help Brownlow Medallist Adam Goodes in the ruck while last year?s great season was also achieved despite the absence of stars such as Michael O?Loughlin and Jason Saddington for long periods.
Fremantle: This is a young team on the rise with the only possible concern being whether the Dockers have a downer after the emotion of last year?s breakthrough finals appearance after such a long wait. But with the off-field leadership of coach Chris Connolly and the on-field leadership provided by skipper Peter Bell and Matthew Pavlich, this is unlikely to happen. The Dockers are a team chock full of young talent with players such as Paul Hasleby, Graham Polak, Luke McPharlin, Justin Longmuir, Byron Schammer, Aaron Sandilands and Robert Haddrill likely to have long and successful careers ahead of them. And they enjoy the best home ground advantage in the AFL and are beginning to learn how to win on the road.
West Coast Eagles:: This is one team that has a midfield actually capable of matching Brisbane?s powerful on-ball division through the likes of Michael Gardiner, Ben Cousins, Chris Judd, Chad Fletcher and Daniel Kerr. And even though the Eagles lack key forwards they are one of the highest scoring teams in the competition through goalsneaks Phillip Matera and Ashley Sampi and rugged forward Andrew Embley while their midfielders also contribute plenty of goals. The retirement of Ashley McIntosh leaves a huge hole in defence but Darren Glass is improving while the injury-prone-yet-talented Travis Gaspar could yet turn out to be a key forward option. And like the Dockers they are virtually unbeatable at home ? which always makes them a genuine finals chance.
THE IMPROVERS:
St Kilda: The Saints are ready to take the competition by storm and if they don?t make the finals in 2004, it will be a disappointing result for coach Grant Thomas and his team of up-and-coming stars. From two wins and a draw in 2000 to four wins in 2001 to five wins and a draw in 2002 to 11 wins in 2003 ? this is a team on the rise with some of the best young players in the competition. And with Robert Harvey back to his best and Lenny Hayes and Aaron Hamill at the peak of their careers to complement the exciting young talent such as Nick Riewoldt, Justin Koschitzke, Brendon Goddard, Leigh Montagna and Xavier Clarke ? the Saints looked poised to return to the finals for the first time since 1998 next season.
Hawthorn: The Hawks won nine of their last 12 games in 2003 to only just miss a finals berth but enough to ensure coach Peter Schwab was deservedly given a new two-year contract after coming under severe pressure in the first half of this year. But anything less than a finals appearance would be disappointing in 2004 with the Hawks, along with the Saints, looking the best-equipped side to break into the top eight. The recruitment of Trent Croad, Simon Beaumont and Danny Jacobs will bolster the defence while the returns from injury of Nick Holland and John Barker (just 21 games between them in 2003) will boost the attack. And the Hawks? midfield looks strong with Peter Everitt, Shane Crawford and this year?s National Rising Star winner Sam Mitchell.
THE VULNERABLE:
Port Adelaide: The Power may have their chance at premiership glory and blown it after failing in the past two finals series despite finishing on top on both occasions at the end of the home and away season. And Mark Williams? side is not getting any younger with 12 players aged over 27 and it has to cope with the loss of brilliant on-baller Nick Stevens to Carlton.
Adelaide: The Crows are also an ageing side with 11 of their players to have turned 27 by the start of next season with the defence in particular still reliant on veteran duo Nigel Smart and Ben Hart. And with just three picks at the recent National AFL Draft, there is not much ?fresh blood? coming into a side whose best players are still those who formed the core of its 1997 and 1998 premiership sides.
Essendon: The Bombers may have been terrific in the first week of the finals in Perth this year but remember they did finish the home and away season in eighth place and like Port and the Crows, their key players are their older players. The Bombers still appear overly reliant on their champion trio James Hird, Dustin Fletcher and Matthew Lloyd while the recruiting of former Carlton pair Matthew Allan and Justin Murphy hardly helps the long-term future. And while the Bombers have some promising youngsters in their ranks such as Jason Winderlich, Courtney Johns, Kepler Bradley and Jason Laycock, they will take time to develop.
THE LIKELY STRUGGLERS:
Kangaroos: The Roos? commitment can never be questioned but don?t look to have enough quality key position players to challenge the leading contenders.
Richmond: Lacks height in defence and their attack simply doesn?t kick enough goals although the addition of Nathan Brown from the Bulldogs will give them a boost.
Western Bulldogs: Will improve with the return of Chris Grant from injury and the additions of Jade Rawlings, Steven Koops and No.1 draft pick Adam Cooney. But it would be asking a lot of the Doggies to go from wooden spooners with just three wins to finalists in the space of one season.
Carlton: Also will improve with the addition of Port star Nick Stevens but the Blues? defence still looks vulnerable while most of their other additions from other clubs are battlers. Still a long way short of finals material.
Geelong: The Cats have some good kids and one of the best defenders in the competition in Matthew Scarlett but lack strikepower and enough overall star quality to match the top teams.
Melbourne: The Demons were disappointing in 2003 and it?s hard to see where their improvement will come from next year. The recruiting of Ben Holland from Richmond will add some much-needed height to their defence but he does turn 27 during the course of next year while the midfield is inconsistent and the attack over-reliant on David Neitz.
Comment