Trading list

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • chammond
    • Jan 2003
    • 1368

    Trading list

    This board has become a cure for insomnia in recent weeks, and looks like staying that way until next month.

    So, how about this for a scenario . . . Fast Eddie has told the AFL that the Colliwobbles squad is still undermanned, and the Commission has agreed to re-open the trading period for one day on 1 Feb to give the Magpies a chance to grab some established talent.

    Now Paul Roos is in a quandary. At trade time, every coach has a trade list - a ranking of all players in order of tradeability, but everyone at the Swans is flat out preparing for the new season. As a last resort, he rings you and asks you to prepare the trade rankings for him. "I've seen your posts on RWO," he says, "and you're obviously the right person for the job".

    Leaving out the draftees from 2002 and 2003, there are 30 players to rank. But remember, this isn't a best and fairest list or a popularity contest. The ranking is of each player's relative value to the Swans IN THE FUTURE, not of their past performance.

    Here's the list . . . see what you can make of it. Rank the full list from 1 (the most future value) to 30 (the least future value):

    Luke Ablett
    Jason Ball
    Leo Barry
    Craig Bolton
    Jude Bolton
    Amon Buchanan
    Jared Crouch
    Nick Davis
    Stephen Doyle
    Ben Fixter
    Nic Fosdike
    Adam Goodes
    Barry Hall
    Heath James
    Tadhg Kennelly
    Brett Kirk
    Ben Mathews
    Stuart Maxfield
    James Meiklejohn
    Matthew Nicks
    Ryan O?Keefe
    Michael O?Loughlin
    Mark Powell
    Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    Jason Saddington
    Andrew Schauble
    Adam Schneider
    Jarrad Sundqvist
    Rowan Warfe
    Paul Williams
  • lizz
    Veteran
    Site Admin
    • Jan 2003
    • 16770

    #2
    OK - I'll have a go.

    Firstly, I am working on the basis that the objective is to win a premiership in the next three years. I am not looking beyond that. Players who have (probably) two or fewer years left in them have been discounted somewhat (also allowed for a possible fall off from their top level in the immediate future) but otherwise I haven't taken age into consideration.

    My rankings take into account not only the ability of the player but also their relative importance to the team. The clearest example of this is Schaubs - I don't rate him as the 5th best player in the team but we don't currently have much to replace him and he tends to get a very important job done week after week.

    I have probably discounted potential for improvement more than others might. I'm working mostly on what I've seen rather than what might be. For example, I'd like to think that in 12 months time I'd be ranking the likes of Schneider much higher but I want to see another season of the same and evidence of improvement before I mortage the kitchen sink for him.

    With that said my list reads as follows:


    1 Adam Goodes
    2 Barry Hall
    3 Jude Bolton
    4 Michael O?Loughlin (slightly discounted due to knee concerns)
    5 Andrew Schauble
    6 Leo Barry
    7 Stephen Doyle (would be higher if not for injuries - prob at no 2 given the importance of a quality ruckman and the age of Ball)
    8 Brett Kirk
    9 Paul Williams
    10 Tadhg Kennelly
    11 Jason Saddington
    12 Nic Fosdike
    13 Ben Mathews (Mr Consistent)
    14 Jared Crouch (ditto)
    15 Craig Bolton (want to see him back this year's performance up)
    16 Stuart Maxfield
    17 Nick Davis (classy, talented but his role is "icing on the cake" - maybe higher in 12 months if he proves to be more versatile)
    18 Ryan O?Keefe
    19 Adam Schneider
    20 Jason Ball (big age/injury discount, doesn't reflect immediate importance or ability)
    21 Luke Ablett
    22 Ben Fixter (injury discount)
    23 Lewis Roberts-Thomson
    24 Mark Powell
    25 Heath James (big injury discount)
    26 Jarrad Sundqvist
    27 Matthew Nicks
    28 James Meiklejohn
    29 Amon Buchanan
    30 Rowan Warfe

    My list only takes into account my perceived importance to the team, not the value I think they might get on the open market and therefore not necessarily the order in which I would be prepared to trade them. For example, I don't think other clubs realise just how good Leo is and we wouldn't get anything like "fair value" for him in a trade. Therefore he would be lower down a trade list.
    Last edited by liz; 10 January 2004, 03:19 PM.

    Comment

    • robbieando
      The King
      • Jan 2003
      • 2750

      #3
      1. Adam Goodes
      2. Barry Hall
      3. Tadhg Kennelly
      4. Michael O?Loughlin
      5. Jude Bolton
      6. Leo Barry
      7. Brett Kirk
      8. Paul Williams
      9. Craig Bolton
      10. Andrew Schauble
      11. Jason Saddington
      12. Stuart Maxfield
      13. Nick Davis
      14. Nic Fosdike
      15. Stephen Doyle
      16. Jason Ball
      17. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
      18. Adam Schneider
      19. Jared Crouch
      20. Ben Mathews
      21. Ryan O?Keefe
      22. Luke Ablett
      23. Ben Fixter
      24. Heath James
      25. James Meiklejohn
      26. Mark Powell
      27. Jarrad Sundqvist
      28. Matthew Nicks
      29. Amon Buchanan
      30. Rowan Warfe
      Once was, now elsewhere

      Comment

      • monopoly19
        Senior Player
        • Aug 2003
        • 1098

        #4
        Adam Goodes
        Barry Hall
        Michael O?Loughlin
        Tadhg Kennelly

        Jude Bolton
        Stephen Doyle

        Craig Bolton
        Leo Barry
        Brett Kirk
        Andrew Schauble
        Jared Crouch

        Ben Mathews
        Adam Schneider
        Lewis Roberts-Thomson
        Jason Saddington
        Stuart Maxfield
        Paul Williams

        Ben Fixter
        Nick Davis
        Jason Ball
        Ryan O?Keefe
        Nic Fosdike

        Luke Ablett
        Mark Powell
        James Meiklejohn
        Heath James

        Amon Buchanan
        Jarrad Sundqvist
        Matthew Nicks
        Rowan Warfe

        I could keep on changing it 'til the cows come home, but I think I'll leave it at this. Having difficulties with where to put Ben Mathews and Jason Saddington in particular...

        I left the gaps because I was kind of grouping them

        Comment

        • CureTheSane
          Carpe Noctem
          • Jan 2003
          • 5032

          #5
          1. Adam Goodes (duh)
          2. Barry Hall (would be #1 in many teams in the AFL)
          3. Michael O?Loughlin
          4. Stuart Maxfield
          5. Nick Davis (will become vital)
          6. Jason Ball (the difference between 3rd spot and a flag last season IMO)
          7. Adam Schneider (think he is really on his way now)
          8. Tadhg Kennelly (last year may well have been in the bottom 5)
          9. Brett Kirk
          10. Jared Crouch (still widely unsung)
          11. Leo Barry
          12. Paul Williams (hope he has a blinder and proves my gut feeling wrong)
          13. Luke Ablett (I've a good feeling about him)
          14. Ben Fixter (hope he's back for rd 1)
          15. Jason Saddington
          16. Jude Bolton
          17. Craig Bolton
          18. Ben Mathews
          19. Amon Buchanan
          20. Andrew Schauble
          21. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
          22. Ryan O?Keefe
          23. Heath James
          24. Nic Fosdike (many may thing he should be higher, but I'm not a huge fan at the moment)
          25. James Meiklejohn
          26. Stephen Doyle (a costant concern - something we could do without)
          27. Jarrad Sundqvist
          28. Mark Powell
          29. Rowan Warfe
          30. Matthew Nicks
          The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

          Comment

          • jimmytootle
            On the Rookie List
            • Oct 2003
            • 33

            #6
            Scenario: The AFL has agreed to Eddie's terms, but the draft selections don't kick in until 2007-2008. You've been asked to quarantine a side for that period.

            Assumptions: Certain players are gone. Trades have been made. Rookies have been promoted (I've bent the rules)

            The question is: What will the Swans look like around 2007-08


            Core Squad
            1 Adam Goodes
            2 Jude Bolton
            3 Stephen Doyle
            4 Lewis Roberts-Thomson
            5 Nic Fosdike
            6 Paul Bevan
            7 Ray Hall
            8 Ben Mathews
            9 Jared Crouch
            10 Craig Bolton (want to see him back this year's performance up)
            11 Nick Davis
            12 Ryan O?Keefe
            13 Adam Schneider
            14 Luke Ablett
            15 Ben Fixter
            16 Mark Powell
            17 Heath James
            18 Tim Schmidt

            Emerging Talent and Hard Tryers
            19 Nick Malceski
            20 Jarrad McVeigh
            21 Josh Thewlis
            22 Josh Willoughby
            23 Matthew Davis
            24 Andrew Ericksen
            25 Scott McGlone
            26 Daniel Hunt
            27 Jarrad Sundqvist
            28 James Meiklejohn
            29 Amon Buchanan

            Veterans (approaching end of shelf life)
            30 Barry Hall
            31 Michael O?Loughlin
            32 Leo Barry
            33 Brett Kirk
            34 Jason Saddington (has adopted Rowan Warfe status ie uncuttable

            Long Gone (laid the foundation to get us close)
            35 Jason Ball
            36 Rowan Warfe
            37 Stuart Maxfield
            38 Andrew Schauble
            39 Paul Williams
            40 Matthew Nicks
            41 Tadhg Kennelly (got homesick)

            Comment

            • ItsAllGoodes
              Regular in the Side
              • Dec 2003
              • 675

              #7
              1. Adam Goodes
              2. Barry Hall
              3. Jude Bolton
              4. Tadhg Kennelly (my instinct is that he will become pivotal...either as the attacking backman...or on the ball)
              5. Michael O?Loughlin (IMO was the difference between a Grand Final place and third) - part of me wants to rank him lower because of his fragility but until Davis and/or Schneider prove themselves to be 40+ goalkickers he is really important)
              6. Andrew Schauble (IMO, apart from Tadgh its hard to separate the backline...we had one of the best collective backlines last year because of how it worked as a unit)
              7. Craig Bolton
              8. Stuart Maxfield (easy to underestimate the value of a captain...Maxfield seems to be more of an inspiration in terms of what he does to get the most out of his ability...which is what the likes of Davis, Nicks, and all younger players need)
              9. Jason Ball
              10. Brett Kirk (maybe should be even higher for the job he does on the oppositions best running player...but I want to see him do it for another season)
              11. Paul Williams (unfortunately I think his value is starting to be diluted...he spends alot more time down in the back half than I think is ideal...he can kick goals on the run from around 50..and I think we need that more)
              12. Jason Saddington (much maligned...but he beats 75% of his opponents..its only the very big CHFs he has trouble with)
              13. Nick Davis
              14. Adam Schneider (these two could be ranked either way...need one of them to kick 40+ goals, take some pressure off our reliance on O'Loughlin)
              15. Leo Barry (I am regretting placing him so low even as I type this)
              16. Nic Fosdike
              17. Jared Crouch
              18. Heath James (if, and we know that its a big IF, he stays injury free, this guy will leap up about 10 places)
              19. Ryan O'Keefe
              20. Ben Fixter (another who could leapfrog if his form at the end of 2002 is what we see this year)
              21. Ben Mathews (i really have trouble rating him...and deciding where I would play hm when i put our best team on paper...I could really be under-rating him alot)
              22. Stephen Doyle (I think he is talented but I am yet to be convinced)
              23. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
              24. Luke Ablett (cant rank him more highly yet...but I have a feeling..and its a good one)
              25 Matthew Nicks (the hardest to rank IMO...if he recaptured his form he could leap up quite a few places)
              26. Jarrad Sundqvist
              27. Mark Powell
              28. Amon Buchanan
              29. James Meiklejohn
              30. Rowan Warfe (only gets a game if we get injury depleted)


              I cant believe what a hard task this was...but I am actually glad it is ...because it shows what depth we have...and also some exciting young players who could be anything...as well as some under-rated players who can go out and get under the oppositions radar
              Red and white till I die

              Comment

              • chammond
                • Jan 2003
                • 1368

                #8
                So, it seems that the most disposable players in the squad are -
                Powell, Sundqvist, Nicks, Meiklejohn and Warfe.

                Nicks and Warfe are probably too long in the tooth to attract any trade interest . . . . and, from memory, the other three haven't even played 20 games between them. We don't seem to be giving Roosy much to work with!

                Mind you, I noticed that LRT and O'Keefe are rating pretty low down the list. And maybe Fosdike too?

                Perhaps they are the best trade candidates?

                Comment

                • Ajn
                  Draft Scout
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 711

                  #9
                  Harsh calls on many of those names, I think it is important to recognise the difference between potential and ability to produce.
                  Staying ahead of the game...

                  Comment

                  • barry
                    Veterans List
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 8499

                    #10
                    Maybe the question would be, a trading window has opened, and a quality midfielder is avaliable. Who would we give up. (ie quality for quality).

                    If the other team wanted a
                    1) Backman - probably trade saddington or Kennelly (as he may go home).
                    2) Forward - difficult. Davis is the obvious candidate, but he's Sydney through and through now.
                    3) Ruckman - Sorry, cant afford to offload anyone but Meklejohn who wouldnt be worth much.

                    Comment

                    • chammond
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 1368

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Ajn
                      Harsh calls on many of those names, I think it is important to recognise the difference between potential and ability to produce.
                      You've got me there

                      Care to explain in terms I can understand?

                      Comment

                      • Bolton brothers
                        On the Rookie List
                        • Jul 2003
                        • 9

                        #12
                        The difficulty in assessing trade value of a player is knowing what player/s you are going to receive in return, and thus, although really enjoying reading the various ratings, I find it far too difficult to attempt.
                        The one interesting player for me is Powell. Rated very low by most. He was emergency about 3 hundred times last year, played a couple of games, and got dizzy dashing back and forth between Canberra and wherever the seniors were playing. I look forward to seeing how he has progressed in the practice matches ( I say that because whispers are that few senior players will be tried in the WC because we have started training relatively late and the concern about the work load on some of them. Bonus is we might get to see a whole lot of young players in the Carlton WC game.)

                        Comment

                        • chammond
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 1368

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Bolton brothers
                          I look forward to seeing how he has progressed in the practice matches ( I say that because whispers are that few senior players will be tried in the WC because we have started training relatively late and the concern about the work load on some of them. Bonus is we might get to see a whole lot of young players in the Carlton WC game.)
                          One of the criticisms I had of the Eade regime was that some of the draftees seemed to get a raw deal. So I was very pleased when Roos threw McVeigh, Dempster et al into the Wizard Cup last year, and if you're right and he does it again this year I'll be rapt.

                          I can't understand why clubs don't take the opportunity to put the spotlight on their youngsters in the pre-season games, even if it's only 5 or 10 minutes just to whet their appetites.

                          Comment

                          • CureTheSane
                            Carpe Noctem
                            • Jan 2003
                            • 5032

                            #14
                            Indeed, Cliff.

                            Add to that that we have a team of 22, and you could make an argument that the best performing youngster wins a place in the team every week.
                            Just to give them a taste.
                            The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

                            Comment

                            • Foreign
                              On the Rookie List
                              • Jan 2004
                              • 7

                              #15
                              Please excuse all the numbers I listed when I compiled my attempt (below) - but they helped me in my assessment.
                              Made consideration of age, height and ability/performance as if I was a recruiter for another club - therefore players over a certain age will lose value despite being in good form. Similarly tall players who may ruck are highly sought after so they go higher despite possibly not performing as well as others.

                              I am a fan of another AFL team - so you might consider my assessment as unbiased.

                              No Height Weight Age Games Player Name
                              37 191 95 24.0 109 Goodes, Adam
                              1 194 98 26.9 127 Hall, Barry
                              2 184 81 23.7 93 Davis, Nick
                              36 175 76 19.6 22 Schneider, Adam
                              19 188 87 26.8 181 O?Loughlin, Michael
                              15 203 103 22.5 18 Doyle, Stephen
                              22 192 83 24.2 124 Saddington, Jason
                              17 190 83 22.5 50 Kennelly, Tadhg
                              12 178 75 23.8 90 Fosdike, Nic
                              5 187 89 22.9 42 O?Keefe, Ryan
                              24 180 76 23.8 89 Bolton, Jude
                              27 200 104 31.1 149 Ball, Jason
                              6 188 83 23.6 51 Bolton, Craig
                              4 182 84 25.1 108 Mathews, Ben
                              30 196 86 20.3 14 Roberts-Thomson, Lewis
                              25 192 93 27.1 151 Schauble, Andrew
                              43 197 93 19.5 5 Meiklejohn, James
                              29 190 76 19.8 5 Powell, Mark
                              28 173 77 25.8 130 Crouch, Jared
                              9 180 78 22.5 24 Fixter, Ben
                              35 188 73 21.0 9 Sundqvist, Jarrad
                              21 185 85 26.6 120 Barry, Leo
                              31 184 81 27.2 71 Kirk, Brett
                              10 176 82 30.7 252 Williams, Paul
                              23 184 82 28.6 147 Nicks, Matthew
                              11 178 85 31.7 258 Maxfield, Stuart
                              18 189 89 23.8 7 James, Heath
                              20 182 85 21.1 6 Ablett, Luke
                              32 177 80 21.2 6 Buchanan, Amon
                              33 188 88 27.5 109 Warfe, Rowan
                              Cogito ergo sum

                              Comment

                              Working...