If this year is all about assessing our list...

[Charlie]

How long do we give the players who are being assessed? Off the top of my head, the senior players who are probably going to be watched closely to decide whether or not they are required are:

Ben Mathews
Brad Seymour
Daryn Cresswell
Daniel McPherson
Scott Stevens
Michael O'Loughlin
Leo Barry
Matthew Nicks
Jude Bolton
Jason Ball
Brett Kirk
Rowan Warfe

I'm not pre-empting whether these players will shine or fail this year, I'm just asking the hypothetical question, how long do they get to earn their spot?

The way I see it, we have two contradictory objectives for this season. The first is to give these at-risk players a chance to prove that they are still capable of playing top-line AFL football, and deserve the place they occupy on our list. The second is to give our rookie players the opportunity to make their debuts and see what they have to offer.

We can't do both at once. For each spot in the best 22 available to a Daniel McPherson, there is one that isn't available to an Adam Schneider.

So how long do they have? Is a 6 week period of poor performances enough for us to say that these players aren't taking us where we want to be? Will we give them the first half of the season?

Basically, where do we draw the line in the sand, and say, it's time?

[treespirit]

Round 12. Then they will have had equivalent of a full season of games under Roos. That should be enough.

[bricon]

The on-field performance of the team will have a large bearing on this. If the side is competitive in the early rounds, it will be more difficult for Roos to cull senior players from the side; if we lose the first six games the season would be effectively ?gone? for us as we play a lot of away games in the second half of the season ? if we had such a poor start to the season, you could well see a number of those senior players playing in Canberra and some young players being promoted to gain experience for the long term.

I doubt that we will see the wholesale demotion of a vast number of seniors no matter how bad things may start for us; there?s no point in throwing kids in at the deep end, only to have them thrashed on a weekly basis. Gary Buckenara tried that approach in the darkest days of the club, only to break the spirit of some (potentially) very good youngsters; Roos is a FAR smarter coach than Bucky, I?m certain that he wouldn?t go down the same path.

If the side were competitive in the first third of the season, I would expect Roos to have one or two of the youngsters involved each game; probably off the bench; if we?re uncompetitive we could see 4 or 5 of the kids playing regularly in the seniors. I think that we will be a LOT more competitive than many people believe, so I expect to see most of the senior players retain their places for most of the season.

[desredandwhite]

Re: If this year is all about assessing our list...

Originally posted by Charlie
We can't do both at once.

Disagree. It will come down to giving the BEST of the young talent a go at the expense of the WORST of the veterans. I mean, there's really not much of a point giving Dempster, Malceski, Hunt etc EXTENDED amounts of game-time just because your overall Vision Statement has SUDDENLY changed.

Basically you can't lump all the "on-notice" and rookies into the one convenient basket. They won't all perform exactly the same way, half the vets might come good, so you can't pull them out just because your new philosophy is to "give the kids a go".

Agree with Bricon's observation that throwing kids in when they're not ready will be counter-productive.

[robbieando]

While we should be looking to give the kids a go we MUST be careful in doing this. Look at what happened at Carlton last year. Their youngs kids while better off for the chance will take alot of time to overcome the mental scars of the season. This could happen if we play them too early. We should for at least the 1st 15 Rounds play our best 22, if after 15 Rounds we are no chance of making the finals then we should push the kids though.

I would be looking to see the following rookies make the senior side at the following stages.

Round 1 - 7
Ablett
Buchanan
LRT
Sundqvist

Round 8 - 15
Powell
Schneider

Round 15 -22
Thewlis
McVeigh
Hunt

The rest get their chance some time in 2004

We can't give 10 young'ins a start in 1 year but a fair spread over the year can only help. If their ready play them if not wait a bit longer.

Of the players who have this season to wrap up a spot I see

McPherson
Kirk
Seymour
Mathews
J.Bolton
Warfe
Nicks

Of these I really expect not to see McPherson and Kirk come 2004, the rest should do enough.

We are in a catch 22 we don't have the squad to win a flag yet, but we have a squad that on its day could beat most teams. Its a risk that if we have a good season it might mask problems that could see us fall down the ladder in 2004.

I expect to miss the finals, but understand that we have a fair enough chance to make it. Its going to be a long season ahead.

[Steve]

Each week you just select on form and who warrants selection.

In recent times we've had a core group of maybe 25 who, regardless of their form (and often also fitness), have always been selected no matter what the form of other (generally younger) players.

Consistently being in the best for the reserves side in the Canberra comp is what has to be dangled in front of all the players mentioned above, whether they are first/second year players or if they're guys like McPherson, Warfe etc.

If any of those players (young or older) can't show enough in the reserves to deserve a senior game, then they have to be prepared for that form to be what is used to evaluate them at the end of the year. Injuries can complicate things, but personally I'd hate to see a senior spot devalued by using it to, as a last resort, see if a guy deserves his spot for the next year.

[swansrock4eva]

Originally posted by bricon
The on-field performance of the team will have a large bearing on this. If the side is competitive in the early rounds, it will be more difficult for Roos to cull senior players from the side; if we lose the first six games the season would be effectively ?gone? for us as we play a lot of away games in the second half of the season ? if we had such a poor start to the season, you could well see a number of those senior players playing in Canberra and some young players being promoted to gain experience for the long term.

on the other hand though, if we're doing fairly well, with a couple of weak links, it's entirely possible the weak links will be demoted to make room for a stronger link that has been pushing for a spot in what may show to actually be a fairly decent team. Last night wasn't as bad as it could have been - sure it coulda been a whole lot better, but most of the guys did something decent at some stage, they just need to be able to put it together consistently and in sync with each other to make it all work.

[liz]

Originally posted by robbieando
While we should be looking to give the kids a go we MUST be careful in doing this. Look at what happened at Carlton last year. Their youngs kids while better off for the chance will take alot of time to overcome the mental scars of the season. This could happen if we play them too early. We should for at least the 1st 15 Rounds play our best 22, if after 15 Rounds we are no chance of making the finals then we should push the kids though.

I would be looking to see the following rookies make the senior side at the following stages.

Round 1 - 7
Ablett
Buchanan
LRT
Sundqvist

Round 8 - 15
Powell
Schneider

Round 15 -22
Thewlis
McVeigh
Hunt

The rest get their chance some time in 2004

Firstly, I agree with other comments that every one should be picked on their merits at the time and according to team needs.

Even putting that aside, the above ain't gonna happen.

Buchanan has missed a huge chunk of the pre-season. He's going to have his work cut out to make the senior team by half way through the season. He'll have to put in a lot of work on the track and then start really playing well in the reserves team from around round 6 onwards. Speed and fitness weren't exactly his strength before he broke his ankle.

Similarly with Sundqvist. While I suspect his limited pre-season won't have affected his fitness base as much as Buchanan, he's not going to walk into the senior team straight away. Ditto LRT.

Ablett isn't really in the same group as the rest given he's a third year player and has the size to play. If yesterday's performance is anything to go by he's a dead set starter for Round 1.

The rest we'll just have to wait and see. Schneider I suspect is ready. He doesn't seem to lack confidence. Powell has certainly shown us something but I worry about his size. Thewlis we may see sooner than later. McVeigh I suspect will be wrapped in cotton wool to some extent. Hunt, who knows? Another with no pre-season worth talking about.

[bomber-princess]

lay off rowan will you. it wasn't his fault he has been injury prone. when fit he has been one of our best players in the defence.
i agree that the rookies will be given their chance in seniors this year. That is all they need to be able to proove what they can do.
the only person on that review list i agree with is: macpherson. what has he ever done for the swans. nothing!!! his name keeps coming up as a player that may be delsited and never is, but the other players on your review list have had injuries and how do u expect them to play 100% when coming back from injuries immediately?

[desredandwhite]

Injuries ARE bad luck, but there's only so long you can carry a player, ie: Ryan FitzGerald. Poor bugger, I really rated him highly, but the club did the right thing in the end.

What you've got to realise here, kate, is that the postings here are all about what is best for the club. Players come and go, coaches come and go, heck even supporters come and go. The club is forever.

/philosophical football rant

[Norris Lurker]

Originally posted by robbieando
I would be looking to see the following rookies make the senior side at the following stages.

Round 1 - 7
Ablett
Buchanan
LRT
Sundqvist

Round 8 - 15
Powell
Schneider

Round 15 -22
Thewlis
McVeigh
Hunt

How's LRT's injury recovery going? He may need to play a few games in the Redbacks to prove his fitness, but he'd be expected to play senior football this year.
Form and injuries will play a major part in some of the others and what sort of chances they get.

Of the players who have this season to wrap up a spot I see

McPherson
Kirk
Seymour
Mathews
J.Bolton
Warfe
Nicks

If the Swans don't make the 8, some of those heads would need to roll. There'd need to be some hard decisions made - and if they miss the 8 then any of them who aren't regular senior players, and even maybe some who are, are under threat.

[Gunn]

Originally posted by warfes_babe
lay off rowan will you. it wasn't his fault he has been injury prone. when fit he has been one of our best players in the defence.

If your latter sentence were true it would be a tragic state of affairs indeed. It would be even more tragic if it proves to be true this year.

[floppinab]

Injuries ARE bad luck

Can't 100% agree with you there Des. If I could take a stab at it I would reckon that saying something like 40% of matches lost to injury are bad luck and 60% are bad management, it wouldn't be too far off the mark.

In another thread/article Roos has already blamed some injuries on the hardness of the grounds they've been training on thus far, which is a pretty poor effort by the Swans in organising training. That's not bad luck is it.