Tadhg Kennelly has hurt his knee

[DST]

Originally posted by Dave
I hope it wasn't from playing on that crappy Moore Park surface.

If so, then it is a discrace that they can't train on a suitable surface this close to the start of the season.

Stupid bloody cricket. No one watches Pura Cup anyway, so they should shove off and let the guys prepare for the season properly.
They should play at Nth Sydney Oval.

It was on the SCG, where we have been training for the last week.

DST

[jixygirl]

It could be much worse if it's only going to be three weeks (everybody on the board rush for the nearest piece of wood). Let's just hope that nothing else happens. This is supposed to be our year, my year to completely bag the people that I know who are Brisbane supporters and Collingwood ferals.Please, Please, Please AFL gods don't give us any more injuries and make the people who are injured heal ASAP!

[Bleed Red Blood]

Kennelly doubtful for Gabba clash
9:28:16 PM Wed 24 March, 2004
Karen Collins
Sportal
Exciting Swans wingman Tadhg Kennelly is in extreme doubt for Saturday night's season opener against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba after injuring his left knee during tackling practice at training on Wednesday night.

Kennelly was assisted from the field and immediately treated by the club doctor, Nathan Gibbs, who will make a full determination of the type of test and his injury on Thursday.


If Kennelly fails to play he will join defender Andrew Schauble (hamstring), Matthew Nicks (back), Rowan Warfe (hip), Ben Fixter (hamstring) and Adam Schneider (hamstring) as a spectator.

Kennelly has played 52 games since making debut in 2001 and in addition to becoming a key element of the Swans midfield, is also becoming the most successful Irish import into AFL football since Jim Stynes.

http://sydneyswans.com.au/default.asp?pg=news&spg=display&articleid=139368

[Sanecow]

Re: Re: Re: Tadhg Kennelly has hurt his knee

Originally posted by NMWBloods
...law of averages (oh no, we're not going to start that debate again!! )

OK, now I'm cross!

[liz]

If three weeks is an accurate prognosis, that's good news in my books. Whenever a knee is involved it's hard not to fear the worst. And because it's happened at the start of the season there will be plenty of time to ease Tiger back into things gently.

Also gives someone like Bevan, Nog or Sunny the chance to string a few weeks together.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Tadhg Kennelly has hurt his knee

Originally posted by Sanecow
OK, now I'm cross!

No, "law of averages" is reasonably applicable in this case.

Typically most teams have a certain number of player-games lost through injury. Some years it is higher and some years it is lower. This works out to a certain average. Last year, it was quite low, hence it is not unreasonable to think that it will be higher this year.

[Dave]

Originally posted by DST
It was on the SCG, where we have been training for the last week.

DST

Ok thanks.

I still would like the cricket to P**s off though.

[Sanecow]

Couldn't a lower injury rate be sustained by a club with good facilities and player management? Or is it simply a random effect over which the clubs have no control? Does having a year in which all of your players stay injury free mean that the next year they will all break down? Surely the injury free year will set them up for a better-than-average year the following year?

Is our goal kicking destined to be bad this year because it was good last year?

Why do St Kilda only have one premiership?

Why has it been so long since we won one?

Why does something referred to as a "law" have so many exceptions?

I don't really care if anyone thinks these things have to balance out from one game to the next or one year to the next but I wish I owned a casino near where you live.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Couldn't a lower injury rate be sustained by a club with good facilities and player management?

Possibly, if we see this lower injury level be sustained for a number of years and are aware of new programmes introduced by the club to bring this about.

Or is it simply a random effect over which the clubs have no control?

In some ways injuries are a random event.

Does having a year in which all of your players stay injury free mean that the next year they will all break down?

No. One year is not necessairly linked to the next or previous. However, if the average of player-injury-games is X, and one year is well below X, then the next year is more likely to be above the previous year as it will be closer to X.

Surely the injury free year will set them up for a better-than-average year the following year?

Why? Injuries are often random.

Is our goal kicking destined to be bad this year because it was good last year?

Why do St Kilda only have one premiership?

Why has it been so long since we won one?

None of this has anything to do with what I was talking about.

Why does something referred to as a "law" have so many exceptions?

It's not a law, it's a "law." I don't normally use that term, I just thought I would because it created such debate.

What I would say is that there is reasonable probability that injuries will be higher this year than last (ie: higher probability of more injuries than same or less). This is essentially what is in layman's terms the "law of averages."

I don't really care if anyone thinks these things have to balance out from one game to the next or one year to the next but I wish I owned a casino near where you live.

I didn't say they balance out from one game or one year to the next. However, if injuries have a distribution approaching normal, then I expect injury levels to revert to the mean over time unless there is some exogenous factor to affect the position of that mean.

Free throw shooting in basketball is a good example. If through the course of his career, a player has a free throw average of 65% and then in a game he comes out and shoots 80%. What do you expect him to shoot in the next game? You would expect him to shoot 65%, not 80%, unless there is some major factor, such as he has suddenly discovered the secret to free throw shooting.

[Ryan Bomford]

Originally posted by NMWBloods


I didn't say they balance out from one game or one year to the next. However, if injuries have a distribution approaching normal, then I expect injury levels to revert to the mean over time unless there is some exogenous factor to affect the position of that mean.

Well Bloods, this was a good primer on basic statistical theory and I'm glad you've pointed out that there isn't such a thing as a "Law of Averages" but there is nothing to say statistically that you couldn't have a bad run of injuries (above mean) over a series of consecutive years, barring exogenous factors of course. But unfortunately in contact sport it's the exogenous factors that make you throw all the statistical gobblygook out the window.

[NMWBloods]

Well, I was think that exogenous factors represent things like different medical services or state of grounds. The contact side of the game is an endogenous factor and is fairly random.

Teams can certainly get good and bad runs of injuries, like you can get good and bad runs of luck in a casino or anywhere else. I certainly wouldn't try to do a statistical analysis or any predictive work on injuries as there are just too many variables and it is too random.

However, as a general observation, I don't think it unreasonable to say that you probably normally expect injury levels to be at some certain range, which is probably above where it was last year.

[Tooth Fairy]

Originally posted by Dave
Ok thanks.

I still would like the cricket to P**s off though.

I'm with you dave. Cricket? Pfft! who wants to play pansyass cricket? Any real sportsman should be running firebrigade competitions in the footy off season