Can beat North?

[Steve]

I hope I'm wrong on this one but I'm feeling a bit pessimistic.

Maybe it's my recent record - I went 0-3 on the road last year (I'm going up on Sunday).

I just think we really need to do something different - we know what North are going to do but I fear we won't be brave enough to try a few things.

We got smashed in the midfield at MO last year - Williams, Bolton, Fosdike all well down and Cressa didn't play.

From what I've seen Harvey's been mostly playing forward this year - I'd seriously think about playing Williams on him which would release Crouch and Mathews to play in the midfield.

Perhaps consider putting Bevan and maybe even Crouch in the forward line to apply pressure on guys like Sinclair, Makepeace, Sansbury etc who set them up in the way that Barry, Kennelly and C.Bolton do for us.

In last year's game we had 108 handballs (107 was our season average so that was normal) but only 153 kicks (season average 175). Being there I felt we were trying so set things up from defence as per usual but just could not get the chain going further up the ground. We had a season-low or I50's in that game last year.

IMO Laidley would be expecting Kennelly to play on Wells (pace factor), which would suit North in that Wells applies a lot of defensive pressure and is also suited to HF. It would also make things easier for them in terms of simply having whoever Leo went to (presumably one of Jones and Motlop) playing from the square, which those two are comfortable doing, with the aim being to take Barry out of the play.

Putting Barry on Wells would be a big risk but would certainly throw North a bit ? I?d think they?d be hesitant to put Wells in the square as: a) he isn?t used to playing there, and b) they?d like him chasing down defenders running off HB.

With a midfield of Simpson, Stevens, Grant, Firrito, Harris etc it's pretty obvious how they like to play - if we can get things going from defence then the run of Williams, Crouch, Kennelly, Schneider, McVeigh and Bevan will be very important.

[Reggi]

Re: Can beat North?

Originally posted by Steve
Maybe it's my recent record - I went 0-3 on the road last year (I'm going up on Sunday).

.

You and DR J how do we stop you guys from going to games?

Both cursed.

If we were in better form, I'd be sure we'd have too much class for them, however they seem in good form.

I tipped us but am expecting a difficult game. Our forwards need to lift. Will be a pretty 'tough' game as well. We should have a speed advantage, so I think plenty will depend on whether the likes of Kennelly, Barry and Bolton can win plenty in the backline. B Mathews may have to play more on ball to counter their strength around the ball.

Us in a close one

[Schneidergirl]

Agree.

Will be a tough slog.

Yesterday in the paper the odds to win at the sports tab were dead equal.

Schnieds was on 101.7 about half an hour ago "mate" for a short talk about the game tomorrow and his 2nd year blues. (He is such a nice person.) All looking forward to a hard game against a tough side.

[NMWBloods]

I was going to write a preview piece on this (but unfortunately ran out of time), but based on the various things I picked up from looking at last year's game and both team's stats I tend to agree with most of Steve's comments.

Last year the 'Roos played a very tough game, putting a lot of pressure on us, limiting our space and thus our disposals, while pushing the ball forward as often and in whatever manner they could.

Their midfield is a worry as it is one of the better ones in the comp. They killed us in clearances last year and are one of the good sides in this area (particularly CB, which surprisingly was not our problem against them last year).

I'd also note that Grant did not play last year either.

Their main two taggers, Rawlings and Furrito, also seem to be able to get a bit of the ball.

Their forward line appears much taller and larger than our backline, and Jones and Wells are always dangerous. I think we can cope if our midfield breaks even, however if the North midfield gets on top and the ball goes inside 50 a lot then I think we could have problems man-on-man in the backline.

Good point on the potential to put Barry on Wells. Our drive off half-back is very important, and that could be a good match-up for us.

Our forward line could have had the potential to do the same thing to North, but we are missing a couple of key goalkickers, and of course there is the midfield question again. I also think Colbert is playing better this year than past years, so although I think Hall should beat him, it will be tougher.

One other thing I'd add, which I just thought of and is contrary to the above, is that the Swans often do the unexpected. Following them for a long time I have the impression that when we have a good team we often struggle against the weaker sides, really move up a notch against the better sides, and go to jelly in big matches. Our current team seems to have a bit more resilience than that these days, but there are still some semblances of it in our play, as we saw last week. On that basis, given that North are one of the better side this year, we may actually come out and play at the top of our game. Let's hope so!!

[Red]

Re: Can beat North?

Originally posted by Steve
In last year's game we had 108 handballs (107 was our season average so that was normal) but only 153 kicks (season average 175). Being there I felt we were trying so set things up from defence as per usual but just could not get the chain going further up the ground. We had a season-low or I50's in that game last year.

It a lot of teams seem to bolt straight to their D50 as soon as the ball's turned over, giving us plenty of room to run the ball back at them. But Norths' midfield - like Hawthorn last year and Geelong last week - play man-on-man in defence, pressuring us into errant disposals and turnovers -- especially when we start overdoing the handball.

Norths' midfield is fast and skillful, but it's also quite short. I hope that bringing LRT in for Bucky means a longer-kicking and marking style of game. If Doyle and Ball can (last long enough to) rotate between ruck and FF, then Goodes, LRT and possibly Saddo could combine to provide midfield targets tall enough to win the one-out marking duels, and keep the ball moving forward.

And if that all comes off, our forwards should have plenty of room to move in a relatively uncluttered F50. With our two best finishers out though, their accuracy will have to be better than it has been so far this year.

I've got a feeling that ROK will be very important to us in this game. With his work-rate, strong mark and long kicking, if he's accurate he could just about get us over the line.

[sharpie]

I'm not as worried as some about their tall forward line. One of these guys, probably Leigh Brown, has to play on Goodes. That takes away from their height up forward, as Goodes will drag him towards our forward line.

[Mike_B]

With today's results, the extra incentive is playing for 2nd spot (if we win by enough).

[midaro]

Schauble, O'Loughlin, Davis - OUT INJURED

Kennelly, Maxfield, Williams - UNDER INJURY CLOUDS

Schneider, Doyle, Ball - STRUGGLING TO FIND FROM AFTER INJURY

James, Roberts-Thomson, Ablett, Bevan, McVeigh - INEXPERIENCED

J. Bolton, Goodes, Hall, Kirk - DOWN ON LAST YEAR'S FORM

Saddington - MORE WHIPPED THAN A MEL GIBSON PROTAGONIST

...and yet we're 2 from 3, and should have beaten the reigning premiers at their home ground.

I fully expect us to get hurt tommorow - bad - c.50 pts.

Noone in the media will really notice the result, they'll rant on about how underrated the Roos are, and be happy to reconcile the result with their 6-8 ladder prediction for us.

But we've got a hell of a lot of room for improvement.

[Steve]

IMO North are a side that always gets talked up but over an extended period their results don't match - everyone (especially the media just 'like the way they go about it').

The bottom line is that as it currently stands, the 3 sides North have beaten so far this year have a combined record of 2-9.

All things being equal we would beat them comfortably. However they are at virtually full-strength and we aren't really in the groove yet (with some important players still missing).

We were just pretty flat in the game last year so hopefully history doesn't repeat.

[monopoly19]

Originally posted by Steve

The bottom line is that as it currently stands, the 3 sides North have beaten so far this year have a combined record of 2-9.

Yeah, but they have that record partially because North beat them all. You can't say that North beat bad teams when the reason they are bad is because North beat them

[Dpw]

Iam still not sure if Colbert will play yet and if he does may struggle to play out a full game. I personaly don't rate many of there talls like Colbert and Brown both are very overrated, I think we will win this one and will be dissappoined if we don't.

[stellation]

last year against the Roos at Manuka it seemed that if anybody kicked longer than 30 metres once the ball got to a certain height it moved an amazing amount with the wind... which ended up with some pretty bad missed set shots at goal. is that common for Manuka or was it just a freaky day... does it have short stands that offer no wind protection and is where the ground is located in a particularly windy part of canberra???

I seem to recall being quite taken aback by how bad it was...

[Go Swannies]

I think we can win today but it'll be our toughest game so far this season. I think we have a greater skill level than north but they always bottle us up. If the Swans all deliver then we'll win. If we drop off the pace as we've done the past 2 weeks we'll lose. But I expect they'll arrive for a hard game. I'd say the odds are 60:40 our way.

[Swansinger]

I think we can win today too , but it hinges on BBB having an absolute blinder.
Without Mick n Nick , we look a bit short on forward targets.
Let Ball do most of the rucking and give Goodes a run in the forward line.
I have total confidence in our defence doing yet another good job.

[midaro]

Originally posted by midaro
I fully expect us to get hurt tommorow - bad - c.50 pts.
...
But we've got a hell of a lot of room for improvement.

My bad.
But I stand by the later.