The Future

[Captain]

Originally posted by penga
your stance is so terribly short-sighted. we had a pick at no 5 and then our next pick was at pick 50 - where our midfield needed and needs a massive overhaul - so we went for the local talented midfielder

Look in the mirror sport to see who is short sighted.

Our young players in the midfield are:

Kirk, Bolton, Fosdike, McVeigh, Schmidt, Willoughby, Ablett, Crouch, Mathews and potentially Kennelly, Bevan, Fixter and Schneider.

Key position young players are:

Goodes, LRT and C Bolton

(NB Powell, Dempster and Matt Davis are more flankers rather than key position).

I'm sensing that our midfied is in better shape than our spine.

You can do all the research you want, fact remains we are vastly short of key position players.

[liz]

Originally posted by Captain
Look in the mirror sport to see who is short sighted.

Our young players in the midfield are:

Kirk, Bolton, Fosdike, McVeigh, Schmidt, Willoughby, Ablett, Crouch, Mathews and potentially Kennelly, Bevan, Fixter and Schneider.

Key position young players are:

Goodes, LRT and C Bolton

(NB Powell, Dempster and Matt Davis are more flankers rather than key position).

I'm sensing that our midfied is in better shape than our spine.

You can do all the research you want, fact remains we are vastly short of key position players.

I know the AFL stats are of variable accuracy, but Rivers is listed at 192cm, Dempster at 192cm, Davis at 190cm, Powell at 193cm.

It is absoutely pointless picking out one player who was "available" who is subsequently doing well in his first year of senior footy and say "we should have taken him".

Firstly, as Penga correctly points out, you don't draft for next year or even the one after that. Make your judgements towards the end of their careers.

Secondly, one season (or in this case, half season) does not an AFL career make. I genuinely hope that Rivers goes onto become a long term quality AFL player. After all, we all watch to see great players play. But the AFL is littered with players who burst onto the scene and then stagnate. Some fall away altogether, some just turn into GOFs. Two years we were led to believe that Collingwood were robbed of their chance in the GF because they lost the services of their first year wunderkid Jason Cloke. They had Ryan "how did he last to pick 30-something" Lonie, not to mention Leon "Magic" Davis wowing the Pies Army. Now even Collingwood fans are looking at these players and suggesting they are too limited and won't take them anywhere.

Thirdly, hindsight is a wonderful thing but every club has its share of "how on earth did we get him so cheap" players and the Swans are no exception - vis a vis Goodes, Schneider, Bevan, O'Keefe, Kirk etc etc

Fourthly, quality KPPs are mostly harder to spot at the age of 17 or 18 because their bodies require far more development than their smaller brethren. It is therefore much harder to project how tall, strong or skilfull they will become than a midfielder, especially a top one. There are exceptions - the Riewoldts and Koschitzkes of this world, but when these players do appear they won't last beyond the first half dozen picks. Choosing a quality midfielder with early picks - one that you can be reasonably certain will be a 100+ game player for your club - is usually better odds than taking a punt on one who might be the "next WC" but is equally likely to fade into nothingness. Given the scrutiny that recruiters come under from their clubs and supporters, it is hardly surprising if they veer towards the safer option. My guess is that the Essendon recruitment manager will be holding his breath for a few years while Bradley grows into his body, wondering whether he should have chosen Tenace instead.

[Steve]

Even with the benefit of hindsight which KPP would you choose ahead of McVeigh? I still wouldn't swap him for any of them.

There aren't many sides (actually there are none) who have ready-made replacements for all of their current KP's.

Who are Brisbane going to replace Leppitsch and Michael with?

Who are Essendon going to replace Fletcher and Wellman with? And they're 29.

When you look at the majority of quality KPP you see that the great majority were either:

a) (very) high draft picks
b) traded for

To ensure that we get our hands on any more we need to either finish last and get priority picks, or give away a fair bit to trade for one.

To which I'm sure there'd be a lot of moaning as well.

[dendol]

Captain,
you cant judge Rivers v McVeigh 12 rounds into both their first seasons. Jarrad hasnt had any decent amount of game time, so its pointless to argue that we wasted our #5 on him. You cant blame our recruiters either, because 15 teams passed on Rivers, some twice, before he was taken by Melbourne.

Obviously our midfield looks in better shape because that was the problem we had to address in the last few years. Now Roos and Ireland have said they will focus on KPP, so its not like your concerns are coming across as unheard.

[penga]

rivers, also, according to his profile off the demons' site was recruited as a midfielder...

[penga]

Originally posted by Captain
Our young players in the midfield are:

Kirk, Bolton, Fosdike, McVeigh, Schmidt, Willoughby, Ablett, Crouch, Mathews and potentially Kennelly, Bevan, Fixter and Schneider.

Key position young players are:

Goodes, LRT and C Bolton

hahahaha

so youre including last year's picks, mcveigh and two blokes that hadnt even played a game before the 2002 draft (ablett had played 3 IIRC) in your young midfield list, as well as kirk - who at that time was a flanker-type only - isnt that contradictory to your point

after the 2002 season, our midfield consisted of mathews, cresswell, williams, maxfield, fosdike, mcpherson, bolton and crouch

mcpherson - couldnt - correctly - keep a senior spot
cressa - obviously, rapidly encroaching on retirement
willo - our top-liner
maxfield - coming off half a season
fosdike - jury STILL out
bolton - at that point could barely kick straight
mathews and crouch - had barely played past the half back line

and you dont reckon we needed to recruit some midfielders? it was looking very thin and very dark!

it looks alright now, once we have recruited all these 'skinny-types' as it was needed

i agree that we need to look for replacements for hall, schauble, whoever our CHB is and o'loughlin. but in football terms they have about 6 years left. you could expect a young KP prospect to take about 4 years to develop, thus giving us a 2 year window where we have to recruit some tall blokes; the next two years! not in 2002

of the key position blokes who will be around for a while, they include:

hall
okeefe - he could possibly play CHF/FF
bolton
james
saddington
schauble
powell
LRT
goodes

hunt was drafted as a KP prospect, who hasnt turned out as planned

rogers may be able to fill a defensive hole

on 'on the couch' jeff white stated that he was 71 kg when he was drafted, powell has some hope yet! seriously though, he has already shown the ability to put on a bit of muscle... he is the same height as leppitsch and 1cm taller than michael

[swansrule100]

Originally posted by penga
hahahaha



of the key position blokes who will be around for a while, they include:

hall
okeefe - he could possibly play CHF/FF
bolton
james
saddington
schauble
powell
LRT
goodes

okeefe is a great player but if we ever are using him at ff/chf it will be a wooden spoon year...he isnt big enough!!!

[sharpie]

Originally posted by swansrule100
okeefe is a great player but if we ever are using him at ff/chf it will be a wooden spoon year...he isnt big enough!!!

He has kicked 5 goals from full forward before. Ask someone else when it happened, coz my memory sucks.

He is a very decent mark, why not give him a go.

[swansrule100]

yeh as a one off its great... and im not knocking okeefe he is an awesome player.... a great kick and mark

but i just dont see him playing ff/chf week in week out...

david murphy kicked 5 goals as a forward once too

[sharpie]

Originally posted by swansrule100
yeh as a one off its great... and im not knocking okeefe he is an awesome player.... a great kick and mark

but i just dont see him playing ff/chf week in week out...

david murphy kicked 5 goals as a forward once too

My point was that in his limited opportunities to play as a key forward he has done suprisingly well. Therefore you shouldnt write him off as a potential key forward in the future.

[swansrule100]

hmmm i guess not...

i take your point.

but imo he just isnt the man to play there week in week out.!!! but if we needed someone hed be worth a try

[penga]

Originally posted by swansrule100
okeefe is a great player but if we ever are using him at ff/chf it will be a wooden spoon year...he isnt big enough!!!

whatever! he is taller and heavier than magic for crying out loud, taller and heavier than modra... etc

the fixter/okeefe kangaroos game is testament that it could work

people were saying 'what would our options be if hall went down???' solution: play okeefe at CHF, albeit he wouldnt be as effective as hall, but he would provide the option on the HF line

the difference between okeefe's day outs and his off days, is that his off days his leads are simply not honoured, he will keep presenting but he is not the option the midfielders will go to...

[Captain]

This has turned into a Rivers v McVeigh debate, which it was never intended.

For what it's worth, I would trade McVeigh for Rivers at the end of this year. We need a KPP much more than an outside midfilder. In terms of the better player in 10 years time, who is to know. This is not to say I don't like McVeigh, I think he will be great.

Comparing the skill of McVeigh v a key position player is pointless. It's the value to the team that counts. Andrew Schauble is the perfect example - top 5 in importance, lucky to make top 20 on skill.

My point is that we are desperately short of key position players and considering they take a number of years to develop, it is a bit of a worry.

[penga]

Originally posted by Captain
I would trade McVeigh for Rivers at the end of this year. We need a KPP much more than an outside midfilder.

for starters, mcveigh is an outside midfielder, however he is not a receiver, we NEED him!

and as my last post stated, we have the next two years to do something about it. while rivers wouldve been nice last week, what happens when schauble comes back?

while a good key backman is essential to stopping a forward every week, to go out and swap mcveigh for rivers would largely be a reactive move to our midfield issues. our midfield, at times, can create some good drive from the centre, but at the moment, we rely heavily on our rebound from half back to create drive to kick a good score.

if we can get our midfield sorted so that from the centre we can be assured of beating the opposition in clearances and centre breaks, we can then use our rebound as an additional weapon, not our sole weapon

we need to get our midfield sorted a long time before we go after young KP, as good as that would be...

and included in our midfield shortage is the need for a replacement for ball

[Captain]

Our midfield is settled.

Kirk, J Bolton, Crouch, Fosdike and Mathews are regulars.

Throw in Schnieder, Buchanan, Davis and Kennelly and suddenly we have plenty of young talent to work with.

Even with Schauble back we lack size down back. Another key backman would be ideal.

I agree that a replacement for Ball is a necessity.