Critical couple of games

[NMWBloods]

If we win the next two weeks, we would move to 6th or potentially even 5th on the ladder.

If we lose both then our finals campaign is in serious threat.

After these two games we have Adelaide at home, which we should win.

Then there are a couple of major '8 pointers' - against Freo in Subi and the Cats at SS.

These will be very tough to win and are against teams vying for roughly the same position on the ladder as us.

The week after that is another tough one - the Lions at the SCG.

Makes the next two (or three) weeks even more important.

The run home doesn't look easy, but will give us a really good idea of how we are travelling running into September, particularly as again there could be a couple of '8-pointers.'

[Dpw]

Don't think I can add to that, you have hit the nail on the head. Seems a good time to be getting a few back(players) fingers crossed.

[robbieando]

Re: Critical couple of games

Originally posted by NMWBloods
If we lose both then our finals campaign is in serious threat.

I would go as far as saying that if we lose both matches we WON'T make the finals. We should at least win one and 7-7 is a better outlook than 6-8.

Then there are a couple of major '8 pointers' - against Freo in Subi and the Cats at SS.

You should add the Carlton match. The way they are going, its turning into a 8 pointer. Lose against the Pies and the game takes on an even bigger importance.

The week after that is another tough one - the Lions at the SCG.

For some reason I don't fear the Lions like most do, we have shown we can beat them or at least go close to doing so, plus with our record in games that no one expects us to win you could almost put this one down as a win

Makes the next two (or three) weeks even more important.

We MUST win at least 2 of the next 3, I think if we win one of them, its going to be very hard to make the finals.

The run home doesn't look easy, but will give us a really good idea of how we are travelling running into September, particularly as again there could be a couple of '8-pointers.'

The good thing is, if we win 8 out of 10, it will give us confidence going into September that we could really do with, plus the likelyhood of playing a home elimination final is greater and thus of more benefit. 10 out of 10 and who knows what will happen.

Make no mistake the next 3 weeks will make or brake us.

[Go Swannies]

At the trivia night I put exactly the same question to Magic. I said that we would need to win 8 out of the next 10 to be in the same position (points-wise) as last year. He said that the whole team thought that wasn't too big an ask. They are expecting to get some key players back for the Pies and more after that so they hope they can finish the season strongly. They are at least as aware as we are of the need to rack up some victories over the next few weeks. His assessment of how this could be done was impressive.

[dendol]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
At the trivia night I put exactly the same question to Magic. I said that we would need to win 8 out of the next 10 to be in the same position (points-wise) as last year. He said that the whole team thought that wasn't too big an ask. They are expecting to get some key players back for the Pies and more after that so they hope they can finish the season strongly. They are at least as aware as we are of the need to rack up some victories over the next few weeks. His assessment of how this could be done was impressive.

care to let us in on some of the details?

The thing that is a worry for me is that the three "8 point games" are all being played away from Sydney: Carlton@OO, Geelong@SS, Freo@S.

On the current form of those three, we would be considered very lucky to come away with 2 wins there.

[liz]

Originally posted by dendol
care to let us in on some of the details?

The thing that is a worry for me is that the three "8 point games" are all being played away from Sydney: Carlton@OO, Geelong@SS, Freo@S.

On the current form of those three, we would be considered very lucky to come away with 2 wins there.

The Swans have been one of the better travelling teams recently, at least relative to their overall form. Clearly they are working against the home ground / crowd advantage when they travel but it seems as if it doesn't hold any fears for them.

The Carlton game is winnable if the "right" midfield unit turns up to play. Carlton have done remarkably well considering the hodge-podge make-up of their squad and cannot be taken lightly, but they do lack a bit of depth through the midfield. Their defence is fairly inexperienced and will struggle to contain a multi-faceted forward line.

Freo are a strange team this year - up and down, a bit like the Swans. But Fortress Subi doesn't seem as inpenetrable as it did last year and that game is certainly winnable.

Geelong at SS will be a tough ask, with the form Geelong have found. The high likelihood of unfavourable weather conditions will also work against the Swannies down there.

[swansrule100]

I think we really need to win the next 3 collingwood, carlton and adelaide if we are a genuine finals contender and not just making up the numbers

[swansrule100]

Originally posted by lizz
The Swans have been one of the better travelling teams recently, at least relative to their overall form. Clearly they are working against the home ground / crowd advantage when they travel but it seems as if it doesn't hold any fears for them.

yesterdays herald sun had that in it since 1997 when port power started the swans have won 27 of 79 games on the road for a 34% record making us the 8th best side...wether that is good or bad ill let you decide

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by swansrule100
I think we really need to win the next 3 collingwood, carlton and adelaide if we are a genuine finals contender and not just making up the numbers

I agree (there you go! ) that if we are to be a 'serious' finals contender then we really should win all three, and reasonably comfortably too (ie: > 20 pts).

[swansrule100]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I agree (there you go! ) that if we are to be a 'serious' finals contender then we really should win all three, and reasonably comfortably too (ie: > 20 pts).

well to me they are three games if u mark the fixture u put down as wins

if we cant win them season is over may still make the finals...but wont be a flag

[barry]

Next three games are critical. On paper we should get three easy wins, but we are hit by injuries so that arent certainties. But if we are a good side, we will do whats required while we wait for injured players to come back.
If we win all three, and have nearly a full strength side coming out of it, we will be well placed for a crack at the flag.

Freo@subi and Geelong@geelong are our critical games. Win one of those, then it comes down to Melbourne@mcg for 4th spot.


And then......

1st final against inexperienced saints at the MCG. - The best chance to go straight to the prelim since port last year.

Prelim v Melbourne at Telstra stad. Another inexperienced campainer. This time Schuabs back for Neitz.

Grand final v Port. What better opponent than the proverbial bunny in the headlights. Got our game worked out eh Choco?

[swansrule100]

port in a grand final... how boring ... id need the swans there or it would be unwatchable i dread a port freo grand final

[Thunder Shaker]

I find it interesting to compare our injury list to the quality of teams we are playing. The early teams (Collingwood, Carlton, Adelaide) are weaker, but our side will be too because players won't be back from injury. As the opposition grow stronger, so does our team with the players we get back.

Here's our injuries from injuryupdate - and to make penga happy I've sorted them this time:

Not listed: Nick Davis

Jason Ball hamstring strain Rnd 11 Rnd 13
Leo Barry ankle sprain Rnd 11 Rnd 13
Amon Buchanan hamstring strain Rnd 12 Rnd 13
Jared Crouch concussion Rnd 12 Rnd 13
Stephen Doyle hamstring strain Rnd 11 Rnd 13
Michael O'Loughlin patella tendinopathy Rnd 11 Rnd 13
Rohan Warfe buttock injury Rnd 12 Rnd 13
Paul Williams corked hip Rnd 12 Rnd 13

Andrew Schauble hamstring strain Pre-seas R3 Rnd 15
Adam Schneider hamstring strain Rnd 6 Rnd 15

Nic Fosdike knee injury Rnd 12 Rnd 18

Nick Malceski knee ACL Pre-seas R4 End of season
Jarrad Sundqvist knee ACL R2 training End of season
Jason Saddington knee ACL Rnd 10 Next season

Look how many are due back in round 13 for the Colliwobble game. Three were injured in the Port game, and it's good that they will be back. It would be good if Ball, Barry, Doyle and Magic all came up too - that's four strong inclusions.

Round 14 we play Carlton. No significant inclusions, but looks like they will lack Fevola to suspension. That's almost as good as Schauble coming back from injury in round 14.

Round 15 is Adelaide. We should win that one at home, but we should have beaten the Tigers at home, too. If Schaubs and Schneiderman both come up for that game, we would be getting closer to full strength than we have been for many weeks.

Round 16 to round 21 we have a lot of huge games - as of this writing, with us yet to play in round 13, we play six of the current top eight. Win four or more of those, and not only will we finish in the top eight, we will know that we can beat most of the sides in the top eight which will put us in good stead come finals time. The key games are against Brisbane (can we beat them this year?) and the Kangaroos (the most significant 8-point game of the run home). Yet we will have most of our injured players back, so we will meet the stronger sides with a stronger team.

Round 22 is Richmond. After the debacle of round 7, that has to be a danger game.

The Kangaroos and Carlton are the most important teams that we have to beat. They are our opposition for the last spot in the eight. Carlton are less important because their percentage is bad, so if we finish level with them on wins we would be higher on percentage. The Kangaroos' percentage is better than ours so we must beat the Roos to stay ahead of them.

[liz]

Monty due back this week must be a misprint, surely?