Swans' flighty win leads to September doubts

[Phil Tarbox]

Originally posted by dendol
I think that is the point I am most worried about. Although we toughed out the last two wins, its the games against the top8 teams that may find us out. Essendon already did it to us this year. Im willing to bet my house Geelong will try it again second time round - this time with form and a home crowd behind them.

And do we really want the opposition try to shut us down every week by playing tough man-on-man? If they have the choice of possibly scrapping a win, or letting us play free-flowing running footy (and getting smashed by our run and gun), I think they will go the former option.

I am also worried about this. Port were minor premiers for the last 2 years with their short game style of play, and statistically that style does not work in September. Prior to the Qualifying final last year (Syd v PA) a whole bunch of stats were talked about by the commentators. PA was highest in the AFL for uncontested possession and short kicks. They were low, if not the lowest, for long kicks and contested possessions.

Looking at premiership winning teams, they were all strong in long kicks and contested posessions. And Port have failed in September for the last 2 years - due to their short game style.

I think that Conolly raises a good point - and should at least be talked about.

[TheHood]

Originally posted by Phil Tarbox
I am also worried about this. Port were minor premiers for the last 2 years with their short game style of play, and statistically that style does not work in September. Prior to the Qualifying final last year (Syd v PA) a whole bunch of stats were talked about by the commentators. PA was highest in the AFL for uncontested possession and short kicks. They were low, if not the lowest, for long kicks and contested possessions.

Looking at premiership winning teams, they were all strong in long kicks and contested posessions. And Port have failed in September for the last 2 years - due to their short game style.

I think that Conolly raises a good point - and should at least be talked about.

I think our "Plan B" as it is knowm has been in hiding until we can get more cattle on the track to take the big marks at CHF. Last year Goodesy was fit, Bally was fit and both were taking the marks that Baz is forced to take almost single handedly (the stats tell the story).

Upon Schaubes' return, Goodesy may indeed be in a position to roam the ground again so when we are "out of run", we can play a "fewer possession" type of game.

Saddo was one of our taller options up there too, Bally is still finding form around the ground and Doyley, well if he plays 4 games in a row, maybe he will take some more marks too. He looked pretty good leaping yesterday.

As an aside, Roosy, please tell Doyley he is not allowed to sprint distances longer than 10 meters. His hammies just aren't up to it.

[Dave]

The thing that amuses me is that people still don't want to wirte off Collingwood but we seem to have no chance.

[anne]

Originally posted by Dave
The thing that amuses me is that people still don't want to wirte off Collingwood but we seem to have no chance.

That's the Melbourne media bias.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
[B]I think you miss his point re Port Adelaide - it's that we have a game plan capable of doing well during the H&A season, but not so well under pressure, which is what finals football is about.

[b]

It's not really that even every week? Carlton has lost a couple of games by over 100pts, while Hawthorn and Richmond have been thumped more than a few times. Note however, we have struggled against each of these.

I must have missed the parts of the Swans games when the team wasn't under immense pressure. Do you really think the Pies game wasn't played with finals-like intensity? It might have been against a team that won't play finals this year but I'd say it was a harder game than the H&A one against them that we lost last year.

Carlton, Hawks and Tigers have been thumped this year, as you rightly point out. But can you tell me what team hasn't been?

And yes, we had a tight game against the Blues without Fevola. Just as the Lions had a tough game against the Tigers without Richo. But yet to see people saying how the Tigers would easily have won if they'd had Richo, just as the Blues would have won with Fevola.

Roos is right: it's a very even competition. Have a look at the coming weekend and tell me what game is a gimme. Maybe the Dogs vs Lions - but that's what the bookies thought about the Tigers chances (and I bet they don't give those odds again). But the Dogs beat the Aints . . .

Swans v Crows. The Crows looked pretty convincing this weekend.

Pies vs Geelong. The Cats are making their run for the flag we hear but do you think the Pies will roll over before their home crowd?

Hawks v Wet Toast. Weagles away vs Hawks anywhere: should be a battle of the giants.

Tigers v Bombers. Depends what teams turn up on tbe night - the Lion threatening Tiges and the Roo capitulating Dons. But the Dons are also running for the flag.

Freo vs Roos. The Roos looked pretty good against the Bombers but Freo beat, um, the Dogs.

Melbourne vs Aints. You tell me: a month ago we'd expect them both to win, now we expect them both to lose.

Port v Carlton. Well Port thrashed us and we beat the Blues so it should be Port in a walkover. Would you put your house on it.

What I'm suggesting it that there are a few teams ahead of us whose big advantage is that they are a few games up. That's a help when any team appears capable of beating any other - and every team has had big losses. I hope the Swans just keep the scrappy wins coming.

And I bet the Cats do man up against us. But we're getting used to that - and certainly won't run onto the field as complacent as we were in R3. We're learning hard lessons every week and have had the benefit of five wins out of six while doing it.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
I must have missed the parts of the Swans games when the team wasn't under immense pressure.

Finals pressure and H&A pressure are usually not the same, as Port has discovered in recent years. Every footballer says it goes up a notch.

Do you really think the Pies game wasn't played with finals-like intensity? It might have been against a team that won't play finals this year but I'd say it was a harder game than the H&A one against them that we lost last year.

It may have been, and it may have had pressure, but it wasn't accompanied by pressure and good football, as a finals side will do. This is one of the reasons why they have not won many games this year.

Carlton, Hawks and Tigers have been thumped this year, as you rightly point out. But can you tell me what team hasn't been?

They have been thumped by other sides, yet we have struggled against them. This suggests that we aren't really travelling that well.

And yes, we had a tight game against the Blues without Fevola.

And at one stage it looked like we were going to do what no other team had done this year - let Carlton win when they don't get 5 or more goals from Fevola!! When Fevola kicks less than 4 goals, Carlton gets thrashed, except against us!!

Just as the Lions had a tough game against the Tigers without Richo. But yet to see people saying how the Tigers would easily have won if they'd had Richo, just as the Blues would have won with Fevola.

Roos is right: it's a very even competition. Have a look at the coming weekend and tell me what game is a gimme. Maybe the Dogs vs Lions - but that's what the bookies thought about the Tigers chances

The Lions-Tigers game is a bit different to ours in that although Richmond had a run at the Lions, Brisbane looked in control for most of the game and didn't let the Tigers get away from them. Additionally, Brisbane have been performing well this year and for a number of years. We don't quite have their record, so I don't think comparisons with them are necessarily warranted.

[robbieando]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
They have been thumped by other sides, yet we have struggled against them. This suggests that we aren't really travelling that well.

Bull****, I say winning 5 of our last 6 matches says otherwise. Winning is winning, no matter how you do it. Who cares if Carlton got thumped by St Kilda and Melbourne early on in the season, and were without their best two key forward's, thats life. We can't play at our best each week and personally I rather save our best form for when it counts. Sure we might not be playing our best football at the minute, but heck at least we are winning and at the end of the day that's all the matters.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by robbieando
Bull****, I say winning 5 of our last 6 matches says otherwise. Winning is winning, no matter how you do it.

That's what all the Essendon supporters said too before they came crashing down. It's also what Swans supporters have said in the past, without looking properly at how we are really going.

Who cares if Carlton got thumped by St Kilda and Melbourne early on in the season,

Not that much earlier - St.Kilda was rd 10 (and Melb was rd 6).

and were without their best two key forward's, thats life.

Of course it is, but it's also important to take into account the quality of your opposition. I think that is so obvious that it is barely worth mentioning.

We can't play at our best each week and personally I rather save our best form for when it counts. Sure we might not be playing our best football at the minute, but heck at least we are winning and at the end of the day that's all the matters.

But we've hardly played to our best form (except for two games), and we are not exactly beating highly-fancied teams and not beating them convincingly either.

Of course winning is better than not winning, but there is more to it than just the 4 points.

[Barry Schneider]

I think the Collingwood game was a finals game.As Roos said it was Collingwoods grandfinal.They knew if they lost that game their finals aspirations were over and they played tough.They have played in the last two grand finals and although they are having a poor year I think it was a better win than people give the Swans credit.
Carlton also saw this game as a mini final and even though they missed some key players they made it hard and we still won.
Both Collingwood and Carlton were desperate and we still won.
I don't think our style of play is a problem.We only chip when there isn't a running option.When there is we have players who stream through the corridor and kick to Barry Hall.Our main problem is we handpass once too often to a player in a poor position.
Our problem as some people have pointed out is that we raise our intensity and skill level against the better teams and lower it against the poorer teams(how did we lose to Richmond?)
With players coming back from injury and teams above us faltering we could even make the 4.
Our style of play in the finals last year saw us 1 bad quarter away from a grand final.

[Nico]

Originally posted by Mike_B
Agree that the effort/talent thing is a bit off the mark, but his general theme is pretty spot on. We don't have a plan B when conditions/opponents dictate that we are unable to play a running game. Againts a team that had a few more options up forward we may well have come off 5 goal losers considering the number of turnovers.

Unfortunately we aren't of the quality where we can have one plan only and execute it no matter the opposition/conditions. We've seen this already this season, and really, if opponents aren't wise to this and trying to exploit it, they aren;t doing a good job.

Another reporter in the Herald Sun said we did have a Plan B. When the chips were down Doyle went to the ruck, Bevan to the Forward line, we got first use of the ball out of the centre, game over. Dur Rohan.

Our problem is winning enough games to get in the 8. Hard run home for mine.

[timthefish]

Originally posted by robbieando
we aren't winning pretty at the moment

i think this is about the size of it. we're winning ugly and playing with grit with injuries constantly upsetting the makeup of the team. six weeks ago we were losing ugly against worse teams.

things are coming together. if the team can get settled in the next two week we are going to make a big impact over july and august and be a team to watch the month after that.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Barry Schneider
I think the Collingwood game was a finals game.As Roos said it was Collingwoods grandfinal.They knew if they lost that game their finals aspirations were over and they played tough.They have played in the last two grand finals and although they are having a poor year I think it was a better win than people give the Swans credit.
Carlton also saw this game as a mini final and even though they missed some key players they made it hard and we still won.
Both Collingwood and Carlton were desperate and we still won.

The problem with these faux finals matches during the year is that opposition pretends it's a finals match because it is not capable of making the finals. Sure you can argue quite reasonably that it has more pressure than a normal match, yet I doubt if it is to the same level of competition as a finals match.

I don't think our style of play is a problem.We only chip when there isn't a running option.When there is we have players who stream through the corridor and kick to Barry Hall.Our main problem is we handpass once too often to a player in a poor position.

Yep - I agree.

Our problem as some people have pointed out is that we raise our intensity and skill level against the better teams and lower it against the poorer teams(how did we lose to Richmond?)

We do that - not all the time, but often - which is disappointing as we should not lower our standards so much against weaker opposition.

With players coming back from injury and teams above us faltering we could even make the 4.
Our style of play in the finals last year saw us 1 bad quarter away from a grand final.

Our style of play and potential gives us the ability to be a real challenger in September. However, if we were playing a bit better during the year, we would have a better springboard for the finals.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by NMWBloods

Our style of play and potential gives us the ability to be a real challenger in September. However, if we were playing a bit better during the year, we would have a better springboard for the finals.

So true. However, of the teams above us, the only ones who have had a worse (or similar) run with injury than we have are Port and the Lions. It's no surprise that they have better depth than us. It's been a surprise that we have fared as well as we have. I'd prefer to be a win or two ahead but my next choice would be building towards the finals rather than fading at this time of the year as some seem to be.

And everyone keeps asking how we lost to the Tigers. They had just got Richo back and he was playing very well (for a change). And the conditions suited them (or the rain didn't suit us). And when Richmond lifted the Swans just gave up. Recently they appear to be in a better mindset - or they aren't going into any games they simply expect to win. Good thing as we have no easy games to come - including Richmond in R22.

[swansrule100]

the swans play better against better teams.... and we won ... lets just get to the finals then worry how well we go in them

perhaps a prelim last year has left us marked too hard by the media.

I think we can and hope we win this years flag! but in reality we are still builiding up and maybe are looking to the lower 8 this year and 2005-2007 is the period we can take a flag in

[DST]

This article concerns me as it does not seem to make sense.

Before last year Rohan clearly stated that Sydney would finish last and that we had too few stars and a thin list to do anything.

Roos develops a game plan that makes the most of the limited talent he has at his disposal, which has at it's core numbers around the ball, quick in close handball to release a player and then carry the ball quickly forward using our leg speed.

This is now seen by Rohan in his infiniate wisdom as flightly football, that won't win us games in final's intensity football?

What really struck me as weird is that Sydney are the #1 stoppers in the league in restricting players effectiveness and scoring, just the kind of football that wins you finals games (ie last qtr v Pies & Blues).

DST