The Swans played above themselves in 2003

[NMWBloods]

I don't compare the years in terms of sides, but in terms of the quality of opponent.

For example (a hypothetical), we play Collingwood in 2003 and they are doing well. Then in 2004 we don't play them and they are doing badly. However, instead we play Essendon and they are doing well.

I don't say we had a tougher draw because we missed out on the easybeats Collingwood this year, I say that we played a team that was comparable to last year, hence the draw is roughly the same.

[Thunder Shaker]

I have taken NMWBloods' table and replaced the X's by the ladder positions of the sides, omitting Sydney. The Swans are omitted so that the Swans' position on the ladder doesn't skew the results.

For 2003, the ladder position is the final position, and for 2004 the ladder positions are after round 16.

Team           H/A   2004  2003   2004  2003
Adelaide       H      11     5      W      L
Adelaide       A             5             L
Brisbane       H       2     3      -      W
Brisbane       A       2     3      L      W    
Carlton        H            14             W
Carlton        A      10    14      W      W
Collingwood    H      12     2      W      L
Collingwood    A             2             W
Essendon       H       7     7      -      W
Essendon       A       7            L      
Fremantle      H       6     4      W      W
Fremantle      A       6     4      -      L
Geelong        H       5    11      W      W
Geelong        A       5            L      
Hawthorn       H      15     8      W      L
Hawthorn       A             8             L
Kangaroos      H       8            -      
Kangaroos      A       8     9      W      L
Melbourne      H       4    13      L      W
Melbourne      A       4    13      -      W
Port Adelaide  A       3     1      L      L
Richmond       H      14            L      
Richmond       A      14    12      -      W
St Kilda       H       1    10      W      W
W Bulldogs     H      13    15      W      W
West Coast     H             6             W
West Coast     A       9            L

Here are the results. Lower numbers indicate a harder draw.
Home:
2003 - 98
2004 - 98

Away:
2003 - 71
2004 - 68

Sides played twice:
2003 - 49
2004 - 46

This analysis shows that our draw is slightly harder this year (three ladder positions) than it was last year. The difference of three shows up in away games and also in sides played twice.

The difference can be understood better if we take one of the teams we played twice this year (one home game and one away game) and gave the away game for that team to a team we played only once this year, at home. Swapping the Kangaroos' away game with Adelaide does this. The Kangaroos' away game is not a true away game (the game was in Canberra so there were many Swans fans), so a better fit would be to swap the Essendon away game (rabid Bombers) for one in Adelaide (rabid Crows). The Essendon game was a loss, and a putative Adelaide game would have been a likely win, so the difference in the fixture amounts to about one game.

[Thunder Shaker]

One note about the table, the comparison is made purely on ladder position. With the top 4 sides separated only by percentage, the table must be taken as a guide only. A more accurate table can be constructed by taking the quality of each win of each side into account. For example, a win over Hawthorn could be counted as 2 because Hawthorn have won 2 games, whereas a win over St Kilda could be counted as 12 because the Saints have won 12 games. I feel that such an approach is too time-consuming, so I won't do it, but others can if they have more time on their hands.

[NMWBloods]

Thanks for doing that T_S. So it confirms that our draw is harder, but not significantly so. An excuse, but not a major one.

[penga]

what about a subi curse table? for and against, 2003 vs 2004....

[anne]

I think it is more informative to compare our draw to that of other teams who are potential competitors for similar positions on the ladder. For example even if we had beaten Geelong they would still probably finish above us as they have a very easy run home. It is commonly accepted that Sydney has the hardest run home and will play more top 8 sides than any other team. From this perspective our draw is much harder than last year's and harder than other teams. So we have to be that much better and we are not.

[NMWBloods]

But if you get a tough run home, then you may have had an easier run earlier.

This is not a bad run:

Rd 1 - Brisbane - away - they were still not fully match fit and prepared, plus a number of players missing

Rd 2 - Fremantle - home

Rd 3 - Geelong - home

Rd 4 - Kangaroos - away

Rd 5 - Melbourne - home

Rd 6 - Essendon - away

Rd 7 - Richmond - home

Rd 8 - West Coast - away - probably relatively the toughest game so far

Rd 9 - Hawthorn - home

Rd 10 - W Bulldogs - home

Rd 11 - St Kilda - home

Rd 12 - Port Adelaide - away - possibly our toughest game for the year

Rd 13 - Collingwood - home

Rd 14 - Carlton - away

Rd 15 - Adelaide - home

I reckon that's not a bad start to the season. Of 15 games, we had 9 at home. The only way it could have been easier is if the WC or Port game had been at home.

We had also benefitted from the last three teams losing key forwards not long before playing us too.

Not surprising we have a tough run home then.