Free kick assets: the gold medal goes to...

[SimonH]

We see a lot of complaints about the umpires, but not much analysis of who the beneficiaries (and victims) of their decisions are- except for the obvious cases like Hird and BBBH. And yet (as both Cresswell and Ball know too well) a well-timed free kick can decide a game.

A quick look at the stats on:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/2004.html#16

and

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/2003.html#16

reveals that the biggest asset to the team in terms of free kicks is...
Jude Bolton!

You could write off a +15 differential (frees plucked minus those given away) this year as merely good luck if it didn't come off the back of a +21 differential in 2003. And in general, while some players are up & down, the trend that some players tend to give 'em away, and some players tend to get 'em, is clear.

I'll throw open to the group why that might be.

My first reaction was to say that Jude does so well 'cos he's a hard-at-it player who puts his body on the line and whose first instinct is to go the ball, not the man. But my first reaction was wrong. Kirk answers that description as well, and he's evens this year off the back of -1 last year. Jude's doing even better than the famously protected $20,000 man Hird (+11 2004, +13 2003)!

Our second best is Willo with +7 this year and +13 last, and Jared Crouch has an excellent record for a tagger at +8 and +1. BBBH's lousy record is the stuff of myth and legend, but the surprise was how many Adam Goodes costs us: -5 last year, -6 in his Brownlow year and an unbelievable -21 in 2002! Paul Bevan has also developed an unfortunate record this year (-12): a clear indication that being hard-at-it doesn't necessarily do you favours.

The Umpires Association might have a more scientific reason, but could I evilly suggest that Jude does so well because he's a bit of a looker and he's reasonably well known?

[NMWBloods]

Free kicks against often reflects defensive intensity. This is the main reason why Kirk has so many FA - he is always tagging the opposition's main on-ball player and so naturally gives away a lot of free kicks.

Bolton gets a lot because he is always at the bottom of packs. I suspect that he is one of those players the umpires like too, so they notice him. His tackling technique is usually fairly safe - generally not too risky, plus is usually done in pack situations, rather than man-on-man. He also has very little defensive game hence is less likely to give free kicks away.

[chammond]

I think Kirk's ratio will swing around now that he is getting more time as a play maker rather than as a negater.

Bolton draws the most 'fouls' because he is the number one playmaker in the Swans team. In fact, I was surprised to read that he is ranked no.3 in the AFL overall for initiating scoring 'plays'.

Also, I think, although Bolton wins a lot of contested possession, he is not a very effective tackler . . . which may well be another reason why he's more likely to appear the innocent party in a congested situation?

Sorry about the basketball jargon . . . watched too much bloody Olympics!

[liz]

Goodes' can probably be attributed to his ruck work. Because he is a short ruckman he does give away frees that taller ruckmen probably wouldn't as he tries to reach over the top or jostle for position.

[Rob-bloods]

Very interesting indeed , look at Tredrea vs Hall stats, every one very close except, you guessed it, frees.......

Hall 17 for 30 against
Tredrea 29 for 17 against

what a surprise....