Is Anyone Safe?

[chammond]

Which of the players are certain to be still on the list this time next year?

In the first of a three part series, RWO's Charlie Goodman analyses the Swans' player list, and asks some tough questions.

See if you agree with his conclusions at

http://redandwhiteonline.com/content.php?id=459_0_3_0_C

[Nico]

Ablett's problem is he is too slow not only with leg speed but reaction time. Tags ok on small ground.

Does not play instinctively. At times he is like the catholic outside the chemist shop - gets the pill but doesn't know what to do with it.

[liz]

I did a similar exercise in bed last night - kind of my version of counting sheep, though a darn sight more interesting.

I didn't distinguish between categories one and two - mostly on the basis that every player is tradeable for the right deal, if another club wants them or not. So my first category was whether they'd still be playing senior AFL footy next year, for the Swans or someone else.

Charlie's categorisations - thus far - agree with mine except for Monty. I think he still faces competitition for his spot on the list, especially with the Swans having so many small players, and needs to play more senior games than he misses if he is to be safe for 2006.

[Charlie]

Liz, in that article there's two Category 1 players - Leo and Jude. Given their importance to the team, I can't picture any realistic trade scenario that could lead to them leaving the club at the end of 2005. Hence, I've differentiated their status to that of, say, Davis and Doyle.

I see Buchanan as secure for a couple of reasons outside those mentioned in the article. An injury-wrecked season would most likely see him being given the same lee-way that Ben Fixter received after 2002... I'd say the two of them had comparable break-out seasons. Additionally, his role as a forward pocket gives him the advantage of not relying solely on breaking into the midfield to hold his position, much like Paul Bevan.

[liz]

Don't disagree Charlie, except that at the end of every year the club has to sit down and look at the balance of its list, as well as the individual performances.

I don't have a problem with them deciding to go essentially with the same squad next year as this because I think there are a lot of youngish players at a critical stage of their development.

But I reckon there are 16 players in our squad who are walk-up starts for a senior game next year, injuries permitting. That leaves 6 spots each round for up to a dozen players who has at least some AFL experience, plus another 4 or 5 who haven't debuted yet but would be hoping to in 2005.

If players like Buchanan and Ablett haven't raised themselves to the level of front of the queue - or even established senior players - their place on the 2006 list has to come into question. And with Buchanan, Schneider, Fixter and Bevan all in the mix for the smaller midfield-cum-pocket roles (with top 16 players), someone may find themselves squeezed out.

[Charlie]

Ok - but even then, there's alot of players whose head will be on the block before Buchanan, as well as anticipated retirements. If Buchanan is delisted, it will only be because the club is making wholesale changes to the list. There's no reason to assume that will happen.

Even then, Buchanan is likely to attract a little bit of interest at the trade table - not on his own, but as a deal clincher, or perhaps in exchange for a middle or lower order draft pick. He will be in the AFL in 2006, and that on it's own means that he is not a Category 3 player.

[liz]

Here our opinions differ. I don't think Buchanan has enough runs on the board to guarantee his place on the list (or in AFL footy) if he doesn't play at least half that games. I reckon there are about 9 players on the list - all fringe players - who need to make some kind of impact this year if they are to secure their futures.

[Charlie]

Originally posted by liz
Here our opinions differ. I don't think Buchanan has enough runs on the board to guarantee his place on the list (or in AFL footy) if he doesn't play at least half that games. I reckon there are about 9 players on the list - all fringe players - who need to make some kind of impact this year if they are to secure their futures.

You'll see that I have a similar number of players in that group, but Buchanan isn't one of them.

[caj23]

Originally posted by Charlie
Ok - but even then, there's alot of players whose head will be on the block before Buchanan, as well as anticipated retirements. If Buchanan is delisted, it will only be because the club is making wholesale changes to the list. There's no reason to assume that will happen.

I'm with Liz on this one, like many of our other younger players on our list there is no way that Buchanan could consider himself safe for 2006 if he has an ordinary season next year.

Originally posted by Charlie
Even then, Buchanan is likely to attract a little bit of interest at the trade table - not on his own, but as a deal clincher, or perhaps in exchange for a middle or lower order draft pick. He will be in the AFL in 2006, and that on it's own means that he is not a Category 3 player. .

As we have seen from this years trade period, clubs will not throw away draft picks on ordinary players. Buchanan would've had very little trade value (if any) this year, and unless he improves significantly will have even less next year.

Having said all of this I think he does offer the squad something and hopefully he will take the next step in 2005.

Unfortunately, from what i have seen so far I don't think Ablett has what it takes and will be gone at the end of 2005

[Rushed Behind]

no one is ever safe. for the rite price all players are tradebul for some players, like Hall, the price is very hier than others and probly not ever gonna be offered. if not tradebul then delistebul.

[sharpie]

Originally posted by Will Sangster
Unfortunately, from what i have seen so far I don't think Ablett has what it takes and will be gone at the end of 2005

But he's been here for something like 5 years and not done much. Each year he is one of the first we discuss as being delisted, yet he stays. My point is, there are always quite a few guys that look like getting the chop, but very rarely is there such a big clearout that they all go.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Rushed Behind
no one is ever safe. for the rite price all players are tradebul for some players, like Hall, the price is very hier than others and probly not ever gonna be offered. if not tradebul then delistebul.

Is that anywhere near Istanbul...?

[sharpie]

Originally posted by Rushed Behind
no one is ever safe. for the rite price all players are tradebul for some players, like Hall, the price is very hier than others and probly not ever gonna be offered. if not tradebul then delistebul.

Must be footyhead's cousin, or they went to the same school.

[caj23]

Originally posted by sharpie
But he's been here for something like 5 years and not done much. Each year he is one of the first we discuss as being delisted, yet he stays. My point is, there are always quite a few guys that look like getting the chop, but very rarely is there such a big clearout that they all go.

Agreed Sharpie he should consider himself extremely lucky to still be on an afl list given his performances to date, let alone getting a regular gig in the seniors.

Lets hope that he repays Roos faith in him

[chammond]

Originally posted by Will Sangster
Agreed Sharpie he should consider himself extremely lucky to still be on an afl list given his performances to date, let alone getting a regular gig in the seniors.

Lets hope that he repays Roos faith in him

But Ablett has improved every season so far, which I guess does repay the faith shown in him.

He's not a superstar, but if he keeps showing steady improvement he'll probably turn into the kind of solid performer that his old man was . . . . . and play 200 games for the Swans.

The more interesting issue will be the competition between Schneider and Buchanan. With the introduction of Spriggs, and return to fitness of Fosdike, there won't be room for two players like Schneider and Buchanan. It'll be a keen battle!