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This post assumes that the major objective for this year is too make the finals. I know that's probably not really the case, but anyway.
Conventional wisdom says that you need 12 wins from 22 matches to make the eight. We have 1 from 2. That means that we need to win more than half our matches from this point to scrape in.
The Next Month (and a bit)
In the next four weeks, the Swans play Adelaide today, Hawthorn at the Gaptooth next week, Melbourne at the SCG and Collingwood at Docklands/Colonial/that name I can't stand and refuse to use. In the interests of keeping this post reasonably well polished, I'm going to include the Brisbane game at the SCG as well.
In my mind, our chances of making the eight rest on us being at least 3-4 from this period. 4-3 would be much, much better, while 5-2 would be a dream start. But 3-4 is about as good as we'll get I think. Anything less than that, and it'll start to get too hard. We would need to win 10 from 15 if we were at 2-5.
I am going to wipe off the Collingwood and Brisbane games right now. While I think Collingwood are overrated, I am quite confident that we will lose to them at Docklands. It's just not a match that I see us having a chance at, for admittedly vague reasons. But I'm wiping it off, in any case. The Brisbane is self-explanatory really.
That means that we need to win at least 2 from our next 3 games, including today. While I hope that I look foolish come this afternoon, I don't expect to win against Adelaide. Considering we are playing at the SCG and they are missing half their forward line, I'm not including this match in the same bracket as the games against Collingwood and Brisbane, but I still think they will be too good.
Hawthorn and Melbourne are the windows of opportunity for this period. Hawthorn copped a shellacking against Port last night, and are missing a couple of key players. I am tentatively tipping a Swans win against the Hawks. What the Hawks do have in their favour though is having already experienced the vagaries of the Gaptooth end at the MCG. It will take some getting used to.
So, having covered 6 of the 7 games, I've got the Swans pencilled in for 2-4. That means that the Anzac match against the Demons becomes the most important game for the period. If we lose against the Hawks, it will be an absolutely must win game to stay in touch and maybe resurrect our hopes. If we win in round 4, it becomes one of the matches that could decide on which side of the dotted line we end up come the end of the season. I'm not sure about Melbourne this year, they've been up and down so far. Melbourne is best described as "predictably unpredictable". As this stage, I'll say its a win, but I'm far from confident.
In summary:
Anticipated losses: Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane
Anticipated wins: Hawthorn, possibly Melbourne
Crunch games: Melbourne
The Run Home
I'm going to skip the middle section for now and focus on our last seven matches. I believe that we need to win at least 3, but probably four of these matches. This part of the season sees us playing:
Now, while I realise that it is almost pointless trying to tip matches that are almost three to four months away, I'm going to try and predict what will happen, for the purposes of assessing where we are likely to end up this year.
Again, I'm going to totally disregard our chances in two games. We will not beat Adelaide at Footy Park, nor do I see us having a hope in Hades against Brisbane at the 'Gabba. That leaves us, after including my early season tips, at 3-6.
There are two matches in this period that I'm going to assume that we won't win, although I'm not by any stretch of the imagination ruling them out. I don't think we'll beat Collingwood. As I said earlier, these guys are overrated, and won't win this years premiership. But they ARE good. At this point of the year they will be looking to cement a top four spot, while we could possibly be trying to scrape through to the final eight. That is the difference; elite versus middle-band.
Melbourne at the MCG is one that again, I'm having trouble tipping. At this point I'm going to say that they will win at home though. They will have had basically an entire season to acclimatise to the changed conditions at the MCG, while we will have had just two matches, 2 and 4 months before. They will also be better suited to the wide open spaces of the 'G, as our game under Roosy is showing signs of being much more suited to small grounds, where we can move the ball very quickly.
This game is shaping up as being another crunch game, as we could quite possibly be faced with the prospect of having to win this one to make it through. I'm tipping that if we are in the hunt, we will be on 10 to 12 wins, so there's a fair chance that this game will end up being crucial.
There are three games that I'm confident (to various degrees) we will win in this period. I still think that Carlton are going to struggle this year. We have had Carlton's measure over the years, and the away-game factor is nullified at Optus Oval, which resembles the SCG in terms of size and shape. It suits our game plan. I'm tipping a win here. That puts us at 4-8 in the matches I've addressed so far.
I'm reasonably certain that the Swans will defeat the Dockers at the SCG. The "Dockers" name is shared by two different teams in the AFL. You'd think they could pack all that young talent on a plane, wouldn't you? But they freeze up whenever they are in unfamiliar territory. Swans to go 5-8.
The big crunch game for this period is shaping up be against Hawthorn. Again, this is a tentative tip in the Swans' direction, but I'm less sure about this one than about next week. The Hawks may well be in even more desperate need of premiership points at this point of the year, and they will have their forward line back in order by round 19. They might even have a familiar bald head in the coaches box... what d'ya reckon?
So, with just the middle part of the season left to address, I've got the Swans booked in for 6 wins and 8 losses, with 3 games identified as matches that could make or break our season.
Anticipated losses: Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane
Anticipated wins: Carlton, Fremantle, Hawthorn
Crunch games: Hawthorn, Melbourne
The Mid-season
As you've probably realised, I see the middle of the year as being our most important period. We need to go 6-2 in this time if the other matches go the way I expect. It is doable, but there are many, many crunch games looming.
The matches are as follows:
There are two things in our favour here. One is that there is only one game I'm willing to write off entirely, and that is Port Adelaide. They are one of the better teams in the competition, and anyone writing them off yet are in my opinion a little foolish. We aren't winning this one. The other is that we have 5 games in Sydney, and another in a neutral venue. It is for this reason that I believe that 6-2 is a possible result, although I'm doubtful.
So, having written off the game against Port Adelaide, it becomes even more imperative that we hit this period in top form, and stay there. We have only two games that I believe are good bets at this stage: Geelong and St Kilda. Geelong look positively terrible this year. St Kilda, well, not yet boys. I have a feeling the Swans will go into this match with the intention of hurting these guys after two bad performances last year. So, after assessing 17 games, I'm tipping us to be at 8-9. Which means that of 5 crunch games, we must win 4.
The first is against the Kangaroos at Manuka Oval. In our favour is the fact that we have done well against them in the past few years, and Manuka is a neutral venue. But after seeing them very nearly beat Brisbane last night, I'm convinced that they will go well this year. Tentative tip: Kangaroos.
So, after 18 games, I've got it down to 8-10. That means we need to win the other four if things go the way I expect. The game against Richmond is a tentative tip for the Swans. The fact that it is at the MCG is against us, but Richmond look completely inept.
The 3 games I see as defining our season when its all said and done are those against the Bulldogs, Essendon and WCE. All of these games are in Sydney, that is in our favour. All of these teams will however, be all competing with us for a spot in the lower reaches of the eight. I'll go with us against the Bulldogs, purely on the basis of our extra height. It is absolutely imperative though that Ball is fit to at least provide a contest at bounces against Darcy, and Crouch and Fixter between them need to nullify Nathan Brown.
Against Essendon, I feel we are a chance, but it's still a little in Essendon's favour. They haven't impressed me at all early this year, and we pushed them very hard last year. My tentative tip is that it is very, very line ball, but I'll go with my heart and say the Swans in this one, especially if one of the Bombers' 4 stars gets injured.
Which brings me to the last match in my prediction, against West Coast. A win will give us a place in the eight, a loss will probalby be the end of it. And what do I think? Nah... I'll let you ponder that.
Conventional wisdom says that you need 12 wins from 22 matches to make the eight. We have 1 from 2. That means that we need to win more than half our matches from this point to scrape in.
The Next Month (and a bit)
In the next four weeks, the Swans play Adelaide today, Hawthorn at the Gaptooth next week, Melbourne at the SCG and Collingwood at Docklands/Colonial/that name I can't stand and refuse to use. In the interests of keeping this post reasonably well polished, I'm going to include the Brisbane game at the SCG as well.
In my mind, our chances of making the eight rest on us being at least 3-4 from this period. 4-3 would be much, much better, while 5-2 would be a dream start. But 3-4 is about as good as we'll get I think. Anything less than that, and it'll start to get too hard. We would need to win 10 from 15 if we were at 2-5.
I am going to wipe off the Collingwood and Brisbane games right now. While I think Collingwood are overrated, I am quite confident that we will lose to them at Docklands. It's just not a match that I see us having a chance at, for admittedly vague reasons. But I'm wiping it off, in any case. The Brisbane is self-explanatory really.
That means that we need to win at least 2 from our next 3 games, including today. While I hope that I look foolish come this afternoon, I don't expect to win against Adelaide. Considering we are playing at the SCG and they are missing half their forward line, I'm not including this match in the same bracket as the games against Collingwood and Brisbane, but I still think they will be too good.
Hawthorn and Melbourne are the windows of opportunity for this period. Hawthorn copped a shellacking against Port last night, and are missing a couple of key players. I am tentatively tipping a Swans win against the Hawks. What the Hawks do have in their favour though is having already experienced the vagaries of the Gaptooth end at the MCG. It will take some getting used to.
So, having covered 6 of the 7 games, I've got the Swans pencilled in for 2-4. That means that the Anzac match against the Demons becomes the most important game for the period. If we lose against the Hawks, it will be an absolutely must win game to stay in touch and maybe resurrect our hopes. If we win in round 4, it becomes one of the matches that could decide on which side of the dotted line we end up come the end of the season. I'm not sure about Melbourne this year, they've been up and down so far. Melbourne is best described as "predictably unpredictable". As this stage, I'll say its a win, but I'm far from confident.
In summary:
Anticipated losses: Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane
Anticipated wins: Hawthorn, possibly Melbourne
Crunch games: Melbourne
The Run Home
I'm going to skip the middle section for now and focus on our last seven matches. I believe that we need to win at least 3, but probably four of these matches. This part of the season sees us playing:
- Carlton at Optus Oval
- Fremantle at the SCG
- Adelaide at Football Park
- Hawthorn at the SCG
- Melbourne at the MCG
- Collingwood at Stadium Australia
- Brisbane at the 'Gabba
Now, while I realise that it is almost pointless trying to tip matches that are almost three to four months away, I'm going to try and predict what will happen, for the purposes of assessing where we are likely to end up this year.
Again, I'm going to totally disregard our chances in two games. We will not beat Adelaide at Footy Park, nor do I see us having a hope in Hades against Brisbane at the 'Gabba. That leaves us, after including my early season tips, at 3-6.
There are two matches in this period that I'm going to assume that we won't win, although I'm not by any stretch of the imagination ruling them out. I don't think we'll beat Collingwood. As I said earlier, these guys are overrated, and won't win this years premiership. But they ARE good. At this point of the year they will be looking to cement a top four spot, while we could possibly be trying to scrape through to the final eight. That is the difference; elite versus middle-band.
Melbourne at the MCG is one that again, I'm having trouble tipping. At this point I'm going to say that they will win at home though. They will have had basically an entire season to acclimatise to the changed conditions at the MCG, while we will have had just two matches, 2 and 4 months before. They will also be better suited to the wide open spaces of the 'G, as our game under Roosy is showing signs of being much more suited to small grounds, where we can move the ball very quickly.
This game is shaping up as being another crunch game, as we could quite possibly be faced with the prospect of having to win this one to make it through. I'm tipping that if we are in the hunt, we will be on 10 to 12 wins, so there's a fair chance that this game will end up being crucial.
There are three games that I'm confident (to various degrees) we will win in this period. I still think that Carlton are going to struggle this year. We have had Carlton's measure over the years, and the away-game factor is nullified at Optus Oval, which resembles the SCG in terms of size and shape. It suits our game plan. I'm tipping a win here. That puts us at 4-8 in the matches I've addressed so far.
I'm reasonably certain that the Swans will defeat the Dockers at the SCG. The "Dockers" name is shared by two different teams in the AFL. You'd think they could pack all that young talent on a plane, wouldn't you? But they freeze up whenever they are in unfamiliar territory. Swans to go 5-8.
The big crunch game for this period is shaping up be against Hawthorn. Again, this is a tentative tip in the Swans' direction, but I'm less sure about this one than about next week. The Hawks may well be in even more desperate need of premiership points at this point of the year, and they will have their forward line back in order by round 19. They might even have a familiar bald head in the coaches box... what d'ya reckon?
So, with just the middle part of the season left to address, I've got the Swans booked in for 6 wins and 8 losses, with 3 games identified as matches that could make or break our season.
Anticipated losses: Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane
Anticipated wins: Carlton, Fremantle, Hawthorn
Crunch games: Hawthorn, Melbourne
The Mid-season
As you've probably realised, I see the middle of the year as being our most important period. We need to go 6-2 in this time if the other matches go the way I expect. It is doable, but there are many, many crunch games looming.
The matches are as follows:
- Geelong at the SCG
- Kangaroos at Manuka
- Richmond at the MCG
- Essendon at Stadium Australia
- The Bulldogs at the SCG
- Port Adelaide at Football Park
- West Coast at the SCG
- St Kilda at the SCG
There are two things in our favour here. One is that there is only one game I'm willing to write off entirely, and that is Port Adelaide. They are one of the better teams in the competition, and anyone writing them off yet are in my opinion a little foolish. We aren't winning this one. The other is that we have 5 games in Sydney, and another in a neutral venue. It is for this reason that I believe that 6-2 is a possible result, although I'm doubtful.
So, having written off the game against Port Adelaide, it becomes even more imperative that we hit this period in top form, and stay there. We have only two games that I believe are good bets at this stage: Geelong and St Kilda. Geelong look positively terrible this year. St Kilda, well, not yet boys. I have a feeling the Swans will go into this match with the intention of hurting these guys after two bad performances last year. So, after assessing 17 games, I'm tipping us to be at 8-9. Which means that of 5 crunch games, we must win 4.
The first is against the Kangaroos at Manuka Oval. In our favour is the fact that we have done well against them in the past few years, and Manuka is a neutral venue. But after seeing them very nearly beat Brisbane last night, I'm convinced that they will go well this year. Tentative tip: Kangaroos.
So, after 18 games, I've got it down to 8-10. That means we need to win the other four if things go the way I expect. The game against Richmond is a tentative tip for the Swans. The fact that it is at the MCG is against us, but Richmond look completely inept.
The 3 games I see as defining our season when its all said and done are those against the Bulldogs, Essendon and WCE. All of these games are in Sydney, that is in our favour. All of these teams will however, be all competing with us for a spot in the lower reaches of the eight. I'll go with us against the Bulldogs, purely on the basis of our extra height. It is absolutely imperative though that Ball is fit to at least provide a contest at bounces against Darcy, and Crouch and Fixter between them need to nullify Nathan Brown.
Against Essendon, I feel we are a chance, but it's still a little in Essendon's favour. They haven't impressed me at all early this year, and we pushed them very hard last year. My tentative tip is that it is very, very line ball, but I'll go with my heart and say the Swans in this one, especially if one of the Bombers' 4 stars gets injured.
Which brings me to the last match in my prediction, against West Coast. A win will give us a place in the eight, a loss will probalby be the end of it. And what do I think? Nah... I'll let you ponder that.
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