12'th ?

[footyhead]

How does everybody feel if we are @ 12th at the end of this round ?
How long is it since we have been so lowly on the ladder ??

[NMWBloods]

12th in rd 4 2003.

We were 14th in rd 12 2002...

[Guzzitza]

At least if we sink to the bottom by the end of the year we can get some good drafts, then Roos can stop whinging about drafting not going his way. WHich only leaves the umpires, having no superstars, and injuries as excuses. 1 down..... 3 to go.

[Dave]

I would have no problem doing some time down in the cellar if it means we pick up some good draft picks.
I really think that just making it into the finals each year and ending up in the top 6 or 8 has done more harm due to the shallow talent pool for the last few years.

The problem will be how many people are prepared to suffer some short term pain for a long term gain?

[Guzzitza]

I feel its more painful and frustrating what we are doing now. Having all these players we are told have great potential or are on the verge of becoming something (dare i say a superstar or talent?) yet just not getting there. Frustrating to watch. We will not win a premiership with this team, this year. Indeed it seems that any team can win a game in the competition so far this year, but that always sorts itself out at the business end of the season. We barely scrapped in to the finals last year anyway. If we end up near the bottom, then so be it. Your better off coming last than 9th really. THats what it comes down to. If the supporters leave, which Roosy seems to think they will (as we unlike othe clubs cant afford to come last), then im sure in true sydney fashion theyll come back in droves when we start winning with all our super talented new draft picks. LOL.

[Mike_B]

IMHO the Swans can afford to have a few years out of the finals alot more now than say 6-7 years ago. There is a much stronger core of support/members that will stick by the team regardless. EVERY club experiences membership drops when they aren't having on-field success.

[Thunder Shaker]

12th at the end of the round is quite likely yes. And so is 12th at the end of the season. If you want to see a rough idea for how the teams will finish, the round 7 ladder will be a good guide. 3-4 after round 7 is likely. I also expect that at the end of this season we will finish with a percentage below 100 for the first time in 11 years.

Should we mind? No. On the contrary, it is a blessing in disguise. Only two sides have not finished in the bottom four in the last 10 years - Sydney and Geelong. All other sides have done so at least once, and have benefitted.

1997 - Essendon finished 14th. 2000 - Essendon win flag after losing only one game for the season.
1998 - Brisbane win the spoon. 2001-2003 - Brisbane win three premierships.
2000 - Port Adelaide finish 14th. 2002-2004 - Port Adeliade finish on top of the ladder. 2004 - Port Adelaide win their first flag.

In other words, the sides that have won the last five premierships between them did so three years after a bad season. There's more.

1999 - Collingwood win the spoon. 2000 - Collingwood finish 15th. 2002-2003 - Collingwood make the Grand Final.
2000 - St Kilda win the spoon. 2001 - St Kilda finish 15th. 2004 - St Kilda make a preliminary final.

If we do have two or three years in the bottom four, we will be more likely to retain the players we select with our first-round selections than we did in 1992-1994. If we finish bottom four in 2005, then in 2008 we could be very dangerous.

[Xie Shan]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
In other words, the sides that have won the last five premierships between them did so three years after a bad season.

Good reasoning, but don't forget it's now three years since the Swans have had a bad season (2002). Does this mean we're going to win the premiership this year?

Even on current form, a bottom four finish is pretty unlikely - even in 2002 when we were as low as 14th at one stage, we still won a few games towards the end.

The point is, as out-of-sorts they are now, the Swans are simply not bad enough to lose enough games over the course of a season to finish bottom four.

Anyway in the last two years, they've made a habit of getting their major form slump for the year over with relatively early-

Rounds 2-4, 2003 - lost 3, then went 14-6.
Rounds 5-8, 2004 - lost 4, then went 11-5.

After that, they did not lose more than 2 in a row for the rest of the season, in both years.

Trouble with this reasoning is that the team genuinely looks to have gone backwards now in terms of skill level and decision-making, and confidence appears at an all-time low since Roos took over.

It's still way too early to write off the season yet - wait till after Round 7. Forget next week - no chance against the Eagles in current form, but if we lose to Essendon the way they're going now, then we're really struggling.

[JF_Bay22_SCG]

Originally posted by Mike_B
IMHO the Swans can afford to have a few years out of the finals alot more now than say 6-7 years ago. There is a much stronger core of support/members that will stick by the team regardless. EVERY club experiences membership drops when they aren't having on-field success.

However if we get thrashed against the Eagles in perth, as I unfortunately expect, I shudder to think as to what sort of terrible crowd we will get at Homebush for the Bombers match. If we get 35000 the way both teams are going, we'll be lucky.

JF

[footyhead]

If the Swans develope a true winning culture, that promises a spectacle every game as well as a committed effort by the entire club, coaches and players, then maybe the Sydney public could be expected to support their club through the lean times.
As it is I am suprised that they have turned up in so many numbers recently , considering Roos boring game plan.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by sydfan83
don't forget it's now three years since the Swans have had a bad season (2002). Does this mean we're going to win the premiership this year?

The point I made shows that teams often enjoy success after enduring pain. Of course the point I made cannot be applied universally. There's more counterexamples than examples: four teams finish in the bottom four every year but only one team wins the flag each year. Yet it's striking how often the three-year cycle can be applied.

[ScottH]

Originally posted by JF_Bay22_SCG
However if we get thrashed against the Eagles in perth, as I unfortunately expect, I shudder to think as to what sort of terrible crowd we will get at Homebush for the Bombers match. If we get 35000 the way both teams are going, we'll be lucky.

JF

The eagles were awesome today!!! we can only hope they have jetlag next week.

They looked unstoppable against the lions, who are officially no longer the bench mark team. WC are.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by ScottH
The eagles were awesome today!!! we can only hope they have jetlag next week.

They looked unstoppable against the lions, who are officially no longer the bench mark team. WC are.

It's hard to believe it was only seven months ago when we blew the Eagles away by 41 points in a final.

[ScottH]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
It's hard to believe it was only seven months ago when we blew the Eagles away by 41 points in a final.

Hmmmmmmmm.

Different year, way different teams.