Quarters won

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  • NMWBloods
    Taking Refuge!!
    • Jan 2003
    • 15819

    Quarters won

    A slightly worrying statistic is the number of quarters we've won this year and also in our past three wins.

    Of 36 quarters, we've won 15, drawn 2 and lost 19 (for 5 wins).

    In our past 3 wins, we won only 6 quarters out of 12.

    As comparisons:
    West Coast 25-1-10 (8 wins)
    Geelong are 21-0-15 (7 wins)
    Richmond are 17-1-18 (7 wins)
    Melbourne 23-0-13 (6 wins)
    Adelaide are 22-1-13 (5 wins)
    Kangaroos are 14-1-21 (5 wins)
    St Kilda are 20-0-16 (4 wins)
    Fremantle are 19-1-16 (4 wins)
    W Bulldogs are 15-0-21 (4 wins)
    Port Adelaide are 12-2-22 (3.5 wins)
    Hawthorn are 18-1-17 (3 wins)
    Brisbane are 16-2-18 (3 wins)
    Essendon are 16-0-20 (3 wins)
    Carlton are 14-1-21 (2.5 wins)
    Collingwood are 14-1-21 (2 wins)

    Indicates that we are not performing well for full games, even when we win.

    So, in 2005 we have won 42% of our quarters, and only 50% in the past 3 wins. Last year we won 49% overall and in 2003 we won 56%.

    I think a good sign would be a winning percentage of mid 50s to low 60s in a season, while you'd want to see about 75% in games you win.
    Last edited by NMWBloods; 24 May 2005, 03:37 PM.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."
  • Tuesday
    On the Rookie List
    • May 2005
    • 890

    #2
    It's like they [somehow] manage to pick up the card off the board that says "Get out of jail free. Do not pass go, do not collect $200".

    They only just get there, but the point is they get there.
    And you can't find nothing at all,
    If there was nothing there all along.

    Comment

    • NMWBloods
      Taking Refuge!!
      • Jan 2003
      • 15819

      #3
      We do just get there, however it means we need to improve dramatically otherwise the winning will simply remain irregular.
      Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

      "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

      Comment

      • j s
        Think positive!
        • Jan 2003
        • 3303

        #4
        Re: Quarters won

        Originally posted by NMWBloods
        Indicates that we are not performing well for full games, even when we win.
        The trend is in the right direction though - up from 37.5% for the first six games to 50.0% for the latest three.

        Comment

        • Dave
          Let those truckers roll
          • Jan 2003
          • 1557

          #5
          I guess the positive thing is that there is a lot more room for improvement.
          It's not as though we are at our best and just getting out of jail.
          That would be more concerning.
          "My theory is that the universe is made out of stupidity because it's more plentiful than hydrogen" - Frank Zappa

          Comment

          • chammond
            • Jan 2003
            • 1368

            #6
            Originally posted by NMWBloods
            We do just get there, however it means we need to improve dramatically otherwise the winning will simply remain irregular.
            The Bulldogs game did go against the trend a little, though. Up til round 9 we were best performed in Q's 1 and 4, whereas on Sunday we were clearly the better team in Q's 2 & 3.

            I'm taking this as a definite sign of improvement . . . . in the absence of anything better

            I must confess that I was almost in despair at quarter time on Sunday . . . that first quarter must surely have been the worst performance in a long, long time?

            Comment

            • mocaholic
              Regular in the Side
              • Oct 2003
              • 575

              #7
              Originally posted by Tuesday
              It's like they [somehow] manage to pick up the card off the board that says "Get out of jail free. Do not pass go, do not collect $200".

              They only just get there, but the point is they get there.
              We're Octagonal as opposed to Rubiton.
              Insert Your Life [HERE]

              Comment

              • Schneiderman
                The Fourth Captain
                • Aug 2004
                • 1615

                #8
                Re: Quarters won

                Originally posted by NMWBloods
                Indicates that we are not performing well for full games, even when we win.
                Yes it does, if you want to see the down side.

                And/Or that when we switch on, we are seriously good. Conversely, when we lose a quarter we restrict the damage. Do the stats support this? I think so, but cant be bothered working it out.

                I am a firm believer that competitive sport is a momentum thing... and that curbing the damage when your opponent has the momentum, plus maximising it when you have it, is critical. As a result, its no good winning lots of quarters by small margins, and losing only a few by lots.

                Note how Richmond is travelling, and they have won two more games than us. Same theory applies there too.
                Our Greatest Moment:

                Saturday, 24th Sept, 2005 - 5:13pm

                Comment

                • giant
                  Veterans List
                  • Mar 2005
                  • 4731

                  #9
                  Note the Kangas stats - even when they were 5-0 they'd lost more qrs than they'd won. Symptomatic of a team that was doing it the hard way - and of a team that will likely lose its fifth in a row this week.

                  Comment

                  • NMWBloods
                    Taking Refuge!!
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 15819

                    #10
                    Re: Re: Quarters won

                    Originally posted by Schneiderman
                    And/Or that when we switch on, we are seriously good. Conversely, when we lose a quarter we restrict the damage. Do the stats support this? I think so, but cant be bothered working it out.
                    I don't agree so much with the former - I don't think we've been "seriously good" much at all this year.

                    We do restrict the scores against us, but that's hardly surprising given we can often play that lock down style of play.
                    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                    Comment

                    • gilze
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Oct 2004
                      • 98

                      #11
                      I think our numbers of quarters won is well represented in the fact that we have a percentage of 96%. But crucially we have gritted it out when we've had to in recent weeks. We could easily have dropped the games against the bombers and bulldogs. what i'd like to know is the average losing margin for the 19 quarters we've lost cause i'm sure a lot of them have been real tight.
                      Come on Magic!

                      Comment

                      • NMWBloods
                        Taking Refuge!!
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 15819

                        #12
                        Unfortunately I can't get that filter, but in terms of F/A %:

                        Q1: 94.5%
                        Q2: 101.2%
                        Q3: 91.9%
                        Q4: 96.5%

                        Our biggest quarter wins (20 pts or more) are:
                        Brisbane Q4: 38 pts
                        Hawthorn Q2: 24 pts
                        Essendon Q4: 22 pts
                        Bulldogs Q3: 21 pts

                        We don't have many big winning quarters as we don't kick many goals. We've managed 5 or more goals in a quarter only 4 times, twice against Hawthorn.

                        Our biggest quarter losses (20 pts or more) are:
                        Adelaide Q4: 32 pts
                        Kangaroos Q4: 28 pts
                        West Coast Q2: 21 pts
                        West Coast Q3: 20 pts

                        Opponents have managed 5 goals or more in a quarter 6 times.


                        As a comparison against say Richmond:

                        in terms of F/A %:

                        Q1: 100.0%
                        Q2: 104.0%
                        Q3: 123.2%
                        Q4: 133.5%

                        The biggest quarter wins (20 pts or more) are:
                        Collingwood Q4: 45 pts
                        Carlton Q1: 44 pts
                        Carlton Q2: 33 pts
                        Fremantle Q3: 37 pts
                        Port Adelaide Q3: 37 points
                        Fremantle Q1: 25 pts
                        Port Adelaide Q2: 22 pts

                        They've managed 5 or more goals in a quarter 12 times.

                        The biggest quarter losses (20 pts or more) are:
                        StKilda Q1: 28 pts
                        Geelong Q3: 27 pts
                        Geelong Q2: 26 pts
                        Port Adelaide Q1: 20 pts

                        Opponents have managed 5 goals or more in a quarter 10 times, 7 of which were against Geelong (4) and StKilda (3) when they were thumped.

                        Richmond is an example of a team that roughly splits its quarters, but it wins them it can do very well and is able to put teams away, sometimes in the course of a couple of quarters.

                        It also highlights another difference - risk taking. They seem to be going out to win by kicking a lot of goals and of course sometimes it backfires, as opposed to playing to protect a lead or restrict their opponents. Their opponents kick 1 extra goal per game relative to Swans' opponents, but they kick 4 extra goals per game relative to the Swans.
                        Last edited by NMWBloods; 24 May 2005, 08:38 PM.
                        Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                        "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                        Comment

                        • liz
                          Veteran
                          Site Admin
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 16778

                          #13
                          Originally posted by NMWBloods

                          Our biggest quarter losses (20 pts or more) are:

                          Bulldogs Q4: 20 pts



                          We were 21 points ahead at 3/4 time and won by 13 so not sure how that adds up.

                          Comment

                          • NMWBloods
                            Taking Refuge!!
                            • Jan 2003
                            • 15819

                            #14
                            Originally posted by liz


                            We were 21 points ahead at 3/4 time and won by 13 so not sure how that adds up.
                            Of course it doesn't!!

                            Transposition error.
                            Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                            "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                            Comment

                            • barry
                              Veterans List
                              • Jan 2003
                              • 8499

                              #15
                              Originally posted by NMWBloods
                              Of course it doesn't!!

                              Transposition error.
                              Nothing new there.



                              Be interesting to see how "scoring shots" including OOBOTF shots compare against other clubs per quarter. We could be right up there on that scale. If so, it would mean only accuracy is the issue.

                              Comment

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