The next six weeks - six tough games

**cruiser** · 12 June 2005, 05:03 PM

**liz** · 12 June 2005, 05:07 PM

In recent seasons the Swans have played at the level of their opponents, meaning they've beaten teams they weren't expected to and lost to some very ordinary teams.

This year has been the opposite so far. On that basis it is entirely possible that we'll lose the next 6 - though Collingwood should be a 50-50 on that basis.

But, we're pretty close to having our best team out on the ground at the moment - probably as close as any AFL team is ever likely to get. You would assume that Jude would be right to come back in against the Pies, and that only leaves Maxfield as one out who might be expected to be in if fit. (Other than Schauble given that we don't know what's going on with him and Roos at the moment.)

We've not played any really good football yet this year and are still 7-5. We just need the boys to lift a gear or two in the run home and they should be capable of winning half those next six.

**cruiser** · 12 June 2005, 05:09 PM

Bliss or misery by the end of July.

**Thunder Shaker** · 12 June 2005, 05:14 PM

It's probably worth listing our last four games as well.

Round 19 - Essendon (A)
Round 20 - Brisbane Lions (H)
Round 21 - Kangaroos (H)
Round 22 - Hawthorn (A)
We should win about three of them.

So how will we go?
I am hoping (not expecting) to win three games, including a win over the Eagles. Three are at home, so we are a chance to win those.

So I'm hoping we can win seven of the last 10 games. That would give us 14 wins and fifth place. With our low percentage, I expect we would need 15 wins to finish in the top four. We will finish top four if we get an additional win over Adelaide or Richmond because we would displace them.

**midaro** · 12 June 2005, 05:26 PM

At the moment we'd start clear favourite in only 4 of those 10 matches: Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon and Hawthorn.

I expect us to limp into the final 8, and play one final.

...nothing in our performances this years suggests anything more.

***NMWBloods*** · 12 June 2005, 05:26 PM

Quite seriously we have the potential to win 7-8 of the remaining games. How many we will win is a normal curve between about 1 and 10!

**footyhead** · 12 June 2005, 05:29 PM

Should really see what these Paul Roos Swans are made off in the next 6 weeks.
So far the Swans have not beaten a side that has been above them on the ladder.
IMHO, the Swans have not yet improved enough to be above the critizisims leveled at them from so many over the last 2-18 months.
This Swans side needs to do a whole lot more yet, before they can be cosidered to be worth their wieght.......

**midaro** · 12 June 2005, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by NMWBloods
How many we will win is a normal curve between about 1 and 10!

Yeah, but the mean is at about 4.

**Charlie** · 12 June 2005, 05:38 PM

We'd be favourites for four of those six. Collingwood are in form, but so are we, and we're a better side. Richmond are doing their usual crash and burn routine. Geelong at the SCG will be a brilliant match, but I'll tip us in a 52-48 decision. Melbourne will be too tough. West Coast don't take their best game to the SCG, and tend to get a little leg weary towards the end of the year anyway - we can win it. Adelaide at Footy Park should be too hard, but it's hard to say how they'll be going in six weeks (or us, for that matter).

We're a huge chance for the top four, as long as we don't implode.

***NMWBloods*** · 12 June 2005, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Charlie
West Coast ... tend to get a little leg weary towards the end of the year anyway

Not sure why you'd say that - they won 9 of their last 11 H&A games last year.

Agree on the rest of the comments, although it's a bit harsh on Richmond considering some of their injuries.

**Charlie** · 12 June 2005, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Not sure why you'd say that - they won 9 of their last 11 H&A games last year.

Agree on the rest of the comments, although it's a bit harsh on Richmond considering some of their injuries.

After sleeping through most of the first 11.

I probably should have said 'West Coast have a habit of not sustaining their form for more than half a season'. They certainly crashed and burned in 2003.

I don't think they'll crash too badly this year - but I'd be more likely to believe they'll win 6-7 than 8-10 of their remaining games.

**footyhead** · 12 June 2005, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by midaro
At the moment we'd start clear favourite in only 4 of those 10 matches: Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon and Hawthorn.

I expect us to limp into the final 8, and play one final.

...nothing in our performances this years suggests anything more.

I agree, and am still dissapointed that so many people around here can get so excited by so little.

Until I am convinced we have a team who is not a pretender, I refuse to jump on any band - wagon created by those substances most people from RWO seem to be addicted to: hope and hysteria.

**Mike_B** · 12 June 2005, 07:56 PM

The fact is this year, that it is a very even competition, and really the only team that seems to be an inked-in W is Carlton and we don't play them again.

Every other game is one that we could lose if we don't turn up to play. So yes, its the biggest cliche, but it really is a matter of taking it one week at a time, seeing what our form and other teams' form line is, hoping we don't suffer injuries and suspensions and seeing how other teams fare with this as well.

I'd say that right now we could finish anywhere from 2nd (I don't see us making up 4 games in 10, plus percentage) to about 13th. So no crystal balling for me - way too difficult to predict.

***NMWBloods*** · 12 June 2005, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by midaro
I expect us to limp into the final 8, and play one final.

...nothing in our performances this years suggests anything more.

I expect this will be the case too, or at best get to a second final.

The next six weeks - six tough games

The next six weeks - six tough games

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