A nightmare run home?

[cruiser]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Kangaroos have the best run home.

Haw (TD)
Adel (TD)
Port (Manuka)
Coll (TD)
St Kilda (TD)
Swans (SCG)
Carlton (TD)

Minimal travel and mainly winnable games.

Except round 21

[Schneiderman]

I think its actually a pretty good run considering, and with a bit of luck we will be meeting teams that are good on paper but suffering from other issues when we meet them:

Melb - Not playing very well ATM and with some key players out (who hurt us a lot last time around)
WC - Possible brusing encounter with Bris the week before
Adel - Seem to be finishing off their games very poorly... maybe the youngsters are tiring as the season wears on
Bris - An easy match the week before against Haw before having to travel.

Injuries will also play a MAJOR part, so here's hoping we stay fit and firing.

And as others have said, we need to beat these teams to get into the top 4, so that means our destiny is in our own hands!

[giant]

Agreed, we get to find out before Sept if we have any need to get excited this year.

Actually, it's mazing how slim the margin will be between agony & ecstasy for a number of clubs this year. No more 1 point losses!!

[Bron]

Originally posted by DST
Of the four away games only one of them looks to be a certain loss (against the Crows)

Better not be! I'm looking forward to a big win in my second home of Adelaide. And being able to play the song all week afterwards in the office!

[DST]

Originally posted by cruiser
The Crows have a fairly easy run home. However, that may be their undoing come September.

With the Crows managing to get themselves out of the poo the last two weeks, the top two spots are as good as sealed. Also word on the street is the deal to solve the MCG preliminary final issue will be siged by months end, so they are probably staring down two home finals.

Maybe the Kanga's maybe able to sneak into 2nd spot, but they are notorious for dropping games they need to win at years end.

The next 6 positions are all up for grabs between 8 clubs and it is anyones guess where they are going to finish.

DST

[Grant]

This may sound weird but i have gone through the fixture for the remaining games of season and predicted who i think will win each game.I came out with the solution that we would finish 3rd and play adelaide at footy park in first final.
I don't really like this scenario because it means that if we lose that and then win 2nd week at home,we play Eagles at subi in prelim.

Would rather finish 4th and play them first up at subi,have a red hot crack at them then(like Port 2003) but if we lose then we go into other side of draw,so in conclusion i feel we would be better dropping one of the games i think was 50/50 but gave us a win(of course) and finish 4th...

But maybe i should just be taking it one week at a time,and look forward to spoiling Jeff Whites 200th game this week first

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by Grant
Would rather finish 4th and play them first up at subi,have a red hot crack at them then(like Port 2003) but if we lose then we go into other side of draw,so in conclusion i feel we would be better dropping one of the games i think was 50/50 but gave us a win(of course) and finish 4th...

It is certain that percentage would decide many places in the top eight this year. Depending on other results, fourth place on the ladder may be inaccessible to us if it is decided on percentage. I would rather win one additional game to finish third than finish fifth and out of the top eight on percentage.

Besides, suppose we do finish third and play Adelaide. We could win you know, in the style of 2003. If we do win, we would avoid a trip to Subiaco in the finals.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
It is certain that percentage would decide many places in the top eight this year.

Yep, and yet we had to listen to a few fools who couldn't see why some people were upset when we threw away decent leads in games we should have won comfortably!!

[barry]

If results go to form, and we beat WC at the SCG, I think 4th is ours.

If we jag wins against Adelaide and possibly Melbourne, we may sneak into 2nd.

3rd is no good.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Yep, and yet we had to listen to a few fools who couldn't see why some people were upset when we threw away decent leads in games we should have won comfortably!!

We're not alone in this: Adelaide vs Fremantle, Hawthorn vs Adelaide. Both times the Crows gave up leads of about six or seven goals in the last quarter to win by small margins.

[Xie Shan]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
We're not alone in this: Adelaide vs Fremantle, Hawthorn vs Adelaide. Both times the Crows gave up leads of about six or seven goals in the last quarter to win by small margins.

Doesn't help us much though - their % is already up to 125.83%. Very unlikely that we have any hope of catching them as we're currently on 103.52%. We should finish up with a % higher than Melbourne's (105.55%) if we win enough games.

But 4th will be a pretty good result - even though the first week will be at Subi rather than Adelaide, there are greater similarities between WC of 2005 and Port of 2003 - both runaway minor premiers unproven (at the time) in finals, hence better chance for the 4th-placed team to cause an upset (IMO).

That said, the Swans will be massive underdogs whether they finish 3rd or 4th, but they are no certainty to even make it that high

[giant]

Nice to dream tho...

WCE's recent finals history is appaling & while this looks like a different side the pressure will really be on Woosha to deliver this year - sounds a lot like Choco & Port circa 2003.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by Grant
This may sound weird but i have gone through the fixture for the remaining games of season and predicted who i think will win each game.I came out with the solution that we would finish 3rd and play adelaide at footy park in first final.
I don't really like this scenario because it means that if we lose that and then win 2nd week at home,we play Eagles at subi in prelim.

Well assuming we get that far, here's two things that I keep reminding myself of:

1. We have a better shot IMO of winning in Adelaide than in Perth. Winning that QF is critical.
2. If we lose the first week and still get a second shot, whats the bet we face the Lions at TS.... not again!

[barry]

I think 4th is our only realistic goal.

In that case I'd like to see the ladder as:
WC,
Geelong,
Adel,
Sydney



Send the reserves to Perth first up, resting older players like Hall and MOL, Ball, anyone not 100% fit.

2nd final at home vs one of the bottom 8 teams

preliminary vs Geelong (assuming they beat Adelaide) at the relatively neutral MCG (Geelong only play the dome or SS as home grounds)

[cruiser]

Originally posted by barry
Send the reserves to Perth first up, resting older players like Hall and MOL, Ball, anyone not 100% fit.

Any team that chucks a final doesnt deserve to be at the GF.