Best Scenario...

**giant** · 31 July 2005, 06:52 PM

Re: Best Scenario...

Originally posted by motorace_182
Well, it seems that it shall be a Weagles and Crows top 2 finish. Adelaide have 3 games at AAMI before going to Subi, is that correct? That means that it would be best to finish 4th. This would give an away final at Subi against West Coast, which can be pencilled in as a loss, but we all felt that way about Port '03...
Providing we lose as expected, we will get a home final against someone like the Kangas, they have never played Telstra before so hopefully we can knock em off there.
Then we progress to Adelaide for a prelim vs the Crows. As was shown last night, they are easily defeated. We were woeful in the second half and wasted opputunities when on top. We had the game plan to beat them, just poor execution when it mattered.
Once we get over Adelaide, anything can happen!!

I can see us really giving the Weagles a shake in the first week, they have been very shaky as of late. I reckon fourth is the best spot to finish... any thoughts?

If it happens that ROK has only cost us 2nd place rather than a spot in the four, then like you I reckon we'd now fancy our chances of beating Crows in Adleaide (especially if it's played during the day - which for the purposes of having a spectacle it should be). In which case, happy to finsih third, beat them over there then play a home prelim final.

But we now have to win the next 4 games before we can dream of home prelims.

***NMWBloods*** · 31 July 2005, 07:10 PM

Re: Best Scenario...

Originally posted by motorace_182
As was shown last night, they are easily defeated.

They are not easily defeated - we lost!

We might have been poor in spots, but so were they.

H&A games aren't always good pointers to what will happen in finals - there are many examples of that.

**SXP** · 31 July 2005, 09:25 PM

Re: Best Scenario...

Originally posted by motorace_182
Well, it seems that it shall be a Weagles and Crows top 2 finish. Adelaide have 3 games at AAMI before going to Subi, is that correct? That means that it would be best to finish 4th. This would give an away final at Subi against West Coast, which can be pencilled in as a loss, but we all felt that way about Port '03...
Providing we lose as expected, we will get a home final against someone like the Kangas, they have never played Telstra before so hopefully we can knock em off there.
Then we progress to Adelaide for a prelim vs the Crows. As was shown last night, they are easily defeated. We were woeful in the second half and wasted opputunities when on top. We had the game plan to beat them, just poor execution when it mattered.
Once we get over Adelaide, anything can happen!!

I can see us really giving the Weagles a shake in the first week, they have been very shaky as of late. I reckon fourth is the best spot to finish... any thoughts?

I like some impossibly optimistic people. They make me lough.

**Go Swannies** · 31 July 2005, 09:30 PM

Phew, and I was worried after last night. Should we book a restaurant for the party after the Grand Final?

**cruiser** · 31 July 2005, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Phew, and I was worried after last night. Should we book a restaurant for the party after the Grand Final?

The grand final wasnt mentioned. That's an entirely different ball game again.

**Go Swannies** · 31 July 2005, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by cruiser
The grand final wasnt mentioned. That's an entirely different ball game again.

The scenario took us to the Grand Final. Why not get ready to party?

**Thunder Shaker** · 31 July 2005, 09:40 PM

Fourth spot would be better than third to give us the best chance of avoiding a cut-throat prelim in Perth.

However, you are dismissing the Saints too easily. They are looking dangerous right now and may be peaking at the right side. I'm hoping that the Saints fall in a heap like we di in '87 but I don't see it happening.

Let us suppose the top four are:
Wet Toast
Cows
Sainters
The Mighty Swans

Week 1 we would go to Subi and probably lose. (We would be an outside chance tho.)
The other semi would be Adelaide vs St Kilda. Would the Crows beat the Saints here? I don't know; the Saints are looking dangerous and the Crows are a bit wobbly. If the Saints do win we would face a prelim against them. Go the Cows!

Week 2 - home semi against the Roos. Let's assume we win.

Week 3 - If the Saints win, we face them this week. We would exit here because the Saints are too good.

If the Crows win, we face them in Adelaide. We are a chance but our record against the Crows at FP is not great. This would be the Revenge game for the '98 semi. I hope we win it.

I believe our best path to the Grand Final is to finish fourth. It is our best chance of avoiding a game against the Saints on their turf.

**swans_premiers** · 31 July 2005, 10:24 PM

In reality we need to win two away games and a home game to win the premiership IF we finish top 4. We would also probably have to beat Adelaide, Stkilda and WestCoast somewhere in the finals.

The most winnable away game would be Adelaide at AAMI so you would want to draw them in week one because there's no gaurantee that they will get a home prelim if they play saints.

So then Stkilda would go to perth and probably lose. So meeting Stkilda in a home Prelim would give us the best chance to beat them.

Then meeting West coast at the G on Grand Final day where they are suspect.

This is our best Scenario IMO. That means we'd want the ladder to be WC, Crows, Saints, Swans..which is what most people are tipping anyway. So we can probably afford to drop one more home&away game aslong as we beat the Kangaroos for this scenario to be possible.

**Go Swannies** · 31 July 2005, 10:28 PM

We have to stay ahead of the Roos on both wins and percentages to stay in the four (at least without depending on other teams performances). Brisbane and Roos are both danger games.

**Snowy** · 31 July 2005, 10:59 PM

Agree with last comment but it would still be better to play in Perth in a minor final rather than the preliminary. You just have to hope it doesn't take too much out of you.

**swans_premiers** · 1 August 2005, 12:20 AM

by the way Adelaide have three losable games in Collingwood(play well at AAMI), Port and West Coast. If they lose all 3 and we win all 4 with saints losing to dockers in perth we will finish 2nd.

So this is probably the best case scenario but highly unlikely.

**footyhead** · 1 August 2005, 12:58 AM

Getting a little ahead of ourselves are we???

**liz** · 1 August 2005, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Snowy
Agree with last comment but it would still be better to play in Perth in a minor final rather than the preliminary. You just have to hope it doesn't take too much out of you.

Winning a PF in either Perth or Adelaide would be a huge ask, with the opponent having had a week off.

The only realistic chance we have of a GF appearance is to finish top 4 and then win the first QF on the road. At least in this game both teams are coming in with the same preparation.

Despite the fact that Adelaide have been our bogey team for a few years, I think we'd have more chance of knocking them off in a QF at AAMI than we would the Weagles at Subi, partly because WC are a better team than the Crows, but also because there is less of a contrast in ground size compared to what we're used to.

Either way it will take a huge effort, ala 2003, and we'll probably have to win all of the last four to even be in that position. If we beat the Roos we can stay ahead of them even if we drop one other (though that would leave it nail-bitingly close), but Geelong have 3 of their last 4 at Skilled and we're not going to catch them on percentage.

**barry** · 1 August 2005, 09:23 AM

I'm starting to come around to the idea of finishing 3rd and playing Adelaide in the first final. If we lose, we are up @@@@ creek, but we'd be a good chance of winning, and would set us up bueatifully for a flag tilt.

3rd very possible. Saints have a harder run in.

Best Scenario...

Best Scenario...

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