Who should go........

[liz]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Causality is always difficult to assess.

The evidence (such that it is) is that J Bolton was playing very well until rd 11 but the team was only average. Since his return from injury he has been only average yet the team has improved dramatically.

The linkage is probably not there, however it does possibly show that he is not necessarily essential to success to the degree of some other players.

The team may only have been average but it still managed to win more games than it lost. If we hadn't scored those wins over teams like Carlton, Brisbane, Essendon, Port, Doggies while our form was only average then it wouldn't matter that we're now in great form. We'd be sitting in the bottom half of the table with absolutely no prospect of a premiership.

I'd argue strongly that it was Jude's superb form in the first half of the year (and particularly the clearances that he was generating) that provided a launch pad for an across-the-team improvement in the second half of the year. Therefore the fact that Jude was the most effective midfielder (and probably the best player in the team) during the period we were struggling slightly arguably makes him more important than players who have improved now that the whole team is playing better.

A premiership is won over 26 weeks by between 30 and 38 players. We can't expect the team to be in peak form for the whole period; nor can we expect any particular player to be in peak form for the whole period. The outcome is a combination of all those players' output over the length of the season.

[Wil]

Originally posted by liz

A premiership is won over 26 weeks by between 30 and 38 players. We can't expect the team to be in peak form for the whole period; nor can we expect any particular player to be in peak form for the whole period. The outcome is a combination of all those players' output over the length of the season.

I don't agree. While having a strong core is needed over the whole season. You need a few game-winners to stand up and be counted during the finals campaign. I don't think we currently have that.

Guys like Jude Bolton and O'Keefe will not get us to a flag (and god, do I hope I am very very wrong about that). But with all respect to Roos we are a much different (and better) team than in 2004 and 2003 so we have as much chance as any. Perhaps we do have all the pieces in place now...

[Go Swannies]

stats from afl

Handball
48 Buchanan 150
49 J Bolton 149

Disposal
52 J Bolton 364
94 Buchanan 316

Tackles
11 J Bolton 77
38 Buchanan 58

Frees for
9 J Bolton 29
66 Buchanan 20

Frees against
16 Buchanan 25
36 J Bolton 22


It has seemed to me that the best thing about Jude's injury was that we found that Bucky had a place in the team. Trading Jude, especially as he may be our captain, would seem to be a step into the dark.

We'd get more out of trading Goodes and he has been less consistent than B1 over the whole of this season.

[Bleed Red Blood]

Originally posted by Wil
Guys like Jude Bolton and O'Keefe will not get us to a flag.

No. They are very important players, very important.

[liz]

Originally posted by Wil
I don't agree. While having a strong core is needed over the whole season. You need a few game-winners to stand up and be counted during the finals campaign. I don't think we currently have that.

Guys like Jude Bolton and O'Keefe will not get us to a flag (and god, do I hope I am very very wrong about that). But with all respect to Roos we are a much different (and better) team than in 2004 and 2003 so we have as much chance as any. Perhaps we do have all the pieces in place now...

Strangely, Mike Sheehan was lauding this "dud' Jude a couple of weeks ago on 'On the Couch', noting that he's elevated himself to the status of elite midfielder.

And try telling Leigh Matthews that O'Keefe can't play.

Fact is that we're in fourth place with most pundits reckoning that we're at least some shot at the flag. These two guys (plus many others who have made lesser contributions throughout the year) have been pretty much everpresent in the team and have made important contributions at various times.

If we can't win a premiership by relying, in part, on players of the ilk of Bolton and O'Keefe then I guarantee we will never win one.

[Sean]

Originally posted by Wil
Guys like Jude Bolton and O'Keefe will not get us to a flag (and god, do I hope I am very very wrong about that).

Which players will get us a flag? A Toby Thurstans perhaps. What about an Aaron Shattock or a Robert Copeland? They've won them so they must be the flag winning types!

O'Keefe & Bolton are easily good enough to play in a flag winning side. Trading them doesn't benefit the side unless we are talking about fantasy footy stuff. Speaking of which, who was the last pick 12 to have an immediate impact on a side?

[Wil]

Originally posted by liz
Strangely, Mike Sheehan was lauding this "dud' Jude a couple of weeks ago on 'On the Couch', noting that he's elevated himself to the status of elite midfielder.

And try telling Leigh Matthews that O'Keefe can't play.

Fact is that we're in fourth place with most pundits reckoning that we're at least some shot at the flag. These two guys (plus many others who have made lesser contributions throughout the year) have been pretty much everpresent in the team and have made important contributions at various times.

If we can't win a premiership by relying, in part, on players of the ilk of Bolton and O'Keefe then I guarantee we will never win one.

Who said Jude is a dud or that O'Keefe can't play? This is a thread about trades. I thought you had some intelligence about sport and AFL but I guess you are like the others who think we can trade Spriggs to get Judd?

Jude and O'Keefe are two big names in our team that I don't believe we need in the team, or will help us in our finals campaign. So I think, for the right price, they could be traded to get in the players the Swans need to win the flag.

After last Sunday I couldn't care less about what Leigh Matthews has to say and the "pundits" tend to be irrelevent when it comes to anything from outside of Melbourne.

Yes, of course we have a shot at the flag and lets see how it goes. But in terms of trades and trying to make the team better by them we will not get anywhere if we don't make hard choices.

I think you can find me and you and others arguing about this at the exact time last year

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by Wil
the "pundits" tend to be irrelevent when it comes to anything from outside of Melbourne.

As well as Matthews, Schwass and Healy reckon we are a chance, and they tend not to be so Melbourne biased.

Source: Schwass

Source: Matthews

Source: Healy

[Wil]

Originally posted by Sanecow
As well as Matthews, Schwass and Healy reckon we are a chance, and they tend not to be so Melbourne biased.

Source: Schwass

Source: Matthews

Source: Healy

Well, I don't understand the relevance of this to this thread. All I could think of is the scenario that: Swans don't win the flag. But we should of won it as the pundits said we had a chance. Therefore we are good enough to win the flag and do not need to change the team for next season.

I don't buy that. I think if we lose then we should have a look and see if we can improve in what might have cost us the game in the finals. It might be that we need a proper All-Australian level Full Back in the team. It may be we need a current All-Australian outside goal kicking midfielder in the team. Who knows? We will see at the end of the season. So if the chance arises that we can make a move on a player that will help us to a flag. Well perhaps a big choice needs to be made in who goes...

Frankly, I don't think we need to trade anyone provided Roos can do another Jolly and bring in a competant person who can help us from day 1 rather than in 3 years time. I still think drafting Willoughby was a bad move.

[liz]

Originally posted by Wil
Who said Jude is a dud or that O'Keefe can't play? This is a thread about trades. I thought you had some intelligence about sport and AFL but I guess you are like the others who think we can trade Spriggs to get Judd?

I'm just one of those people who thinks you don't trade your core players to get nothing. If Judd were on the trade table, I would trade any player on our list to get him - even Barry Hall, given the age differential.

But players like Judd are not on the trade table and are not going to be on the trade table.

Would I trade an O'Keefe or Bolton to get an Ottens, Thompson or even a Whitnall (given the rumour he wants out of Carlton) then the answer is a most definitive no.

As for the bit about not claiming Jude or O'Keefe are duds, you're the one who stated that we can't win a premiership with them. Doesn't that pretty much make them duds?

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by Wil
Well, I don't understand the relevance of this

I'll walk you through it, big guy. Liz said that (to paraphrase) "most pundits reckon that we're at least some shot at the flag". To counter, you said "the 'pundits' tend to be irrelevent when it comes to anything from outside of Melbourne". To show how badly wrong you were, I named three "pundits" who reckon we are a chance and who aren't focussed entirely on Melbourne (two ex-Sydney players and the Brisbane coach in case you didn't recognize the names).

[Wil]

Originally posted by Sanecow
I'll walk you through it, big guy. Liz said that (to paraphrase) "most pundits reckon that we're at least some shot at the flag". To counter, you said "the 'pundits' tend to be irrelevent when it comes to anything from outside of Melbourne". To show how badly wrong you were, I named three "pundits" who reckon we are a chance and who aren't focussed entirely on Melbourne (two ex-Sydney players and the Brisbane coach in case you didn't recognize the names).

Alright you guys win. You know the old saying and you have beaten me with experience.

Yes, I think we can trade Saddington for Chris Judd.

[Go Swannies]

Premature depression thread.

Why don't we beat the rush and start a "How the Swans lost the Grand Final" thread? The Lions won the Premiership, held the team together and won two more. Port won and disintegrated and look how far that's got them.

Right now, I want every Swans player (including Schaubs and Stewie) to be in the Premiers photograph and to run onto the field for R1 2006.

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by Wil
Yes, I think we can trade Saddington for Chris Judd.

http://disted.tamu.edu/classes/telec...a/strawman.jpg

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by liz
A premiership is won over 26 weeks by between 30 and 38 players. We can't expect the team to be in peak form for the whole period; nor can we expect any particular player to be in peak form for the whole period. The outcome is a combination of all those players' output over the length of the season.

Of course it is. However, it is still arguable that replacing him with a top-flight outside midfielder could be a net gain for us.