A great stats site on Swans

[Go Swannies]

So Ben and Spriggs make about half the average number of errors of Leo, Baz and the Captain? LRT and Schneider are amongst our least error prone this season?

Does this include fashion errors (mismatched boots, hair styles) maybe?

[tantrum]

I don't know if they factor in time on ground... errors per disposal might be more indicative of the truth.

But I've always felt Ben Mathews was quite reliable in not producing clangers. (No statistical backup, just an opinion).

This was particularly a few years ago when every time Nic Fosdike touched it, there was a good chance of a stuff-up. But Ben always seemed quite reliable, in comparison.

I saw some stats on shepherds where we were very lowly ranked too. Seems like this particular pattern has been going on for years. I remember late 90s/early 00s (when I worked on AFL stats), Swannies were always crap for shepherds. Odd.

[ScottH]

Re: Re: Re: Re: A great stats site on Swans

Originally posted by BayseysLeftBoot
We've improved in both these areas over the last month so it shouldn't be a worry come finals time

Exactly, where are the "rolling last month" stats to show where the teams are at right now, not including the part of the season where we were playing crap negative footy. Or where other teams were playing well and have fallen by the wayside.

[floppinab]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: A great stats site on Swans

Originally posted by ScottH
Exactly, where are the "rolling last month" stats to show where the teams are at right now, not including the part of the season where we were playing crap negative footy. Or where other teams were playing well and have fallen by the wayside.

This is one at least.

Originally posted by NMWBloods
In the past 7 games we have averaged 48.7 I50s per game - this would make us 12th instead of 14th.

In those games we have averaged 14.7 goals per game - this would make us 4th instead of 15th.

Be interesting to see what the last three games alone were like, although 3 games is probably not really a good enough sample size.

A stat like that would have me feeling a lot more confident in coming up against the Eagles as opposed to the number one defensive unit in the league.

[sharp9]

Originally posted by tantrum

But I've always felt Ben Mathews was quite reliable in not producing clangers. (No statistical backup, just an opinion).

You are sadly mistaken. On the few occasions I have done VERY detailed analysis Benny has been the worst by a fair margin. Others have worse games than him, but he is very consistent. There have been a few games where his clanger count, or more to the point ineffective plus clanger count is over 50% of his possessions. And that's not counting his ball handling errors and the times when he doen't dispose of the ball when others would manage it before being tackled and the number of times he doesn't dispose of the ball for fifteen seconds as we are running forward, and then eventually chips it 20 metres sideways for a technically "effective" possession.

There was one game when from 12 possessions he had 3 which actually went forward to a Swan in a timely fashion (1 kick...and that was a short one) which is a pathetic total from a very experienced midfielder.

He is the antithesis of Buchanan in this...even though Buchanan kicks a clanger with 1 out of 5 medium/long kicks (not counting his kicking for goal!). Monty would be close to the league leader for marks inside 50 from his kicks.

[giant]

Originally posted by TheHood
I remember when we were woeful in that department 2 years ago. We had Bally doing all the work with Goodesy and didn't have a clearence specialist on our list.

Now Kirky, Jude and Noggy are just about the best at slamming it on the boot fast...no fuss and no stuffing around.

When we played the Roos in Rd 2 I had never seen us pfaff about worse in the centre, always looking for the perfect handball to try and get clear. It all ended in tears with turnovers and errors costing us the game.

Snap clearances is definetly a conscious midfield tactic introduced during the year and as our forwards got better, the more damaging those clearances became.

Roosy has kept his mouth shut about this because if other teams agree that is where we're winning it, we will become the tagged.

Very good point this - definite change in MO from H1 of the season. Kirk & Noggy in particular seem to have licence to just get it forward from the centre & its helped that ROK & Davis seem able to out-manoevure their opponents from the HFF for the mark I50.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by sharp9
He is the antithesis of Buchanan in this...even though Buchanan kicks a clanger with 1 out of 5 medium/long kicks (not counting his kicking for goal!). Monty would be close to the league leader for marks inside 50 from his kicks.

Dermie made a comment similar to this either last week or the one before (although I don't fully trust anything he says related to stats) - Buchanan is one of the leaders in the comp for disposals that result in shots for goal.

[ScottH]

Benny had 19 effective disposal on Sunday, IIRC.

[tantrum]

Originally posted by sharp9
You are sadly mistaken. On the few occasions I have done VERY detailed analysis Benny has been the worst by a fair margin.
He is the antithesis of Buchanan in this...even though Buchanan kicks a clanger with 1 out of 5 medium/long kicks (not counting his kicking for goal!). Monty would be close to the league leader for marks inside 50 from his kicks.

http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/compare_players?tid1=114&pid1=430&tid2=114&pid2=2001105

has Matthews 2.1 errors per game and Buchanan 3.4, with a fairly similar overall possession count. Mathews has fewer kicks (7.8 vs 8.6) but more long kicks (3.3 vs 2.8).

Mathews is listed as having made fewer errors per game than Kennelly, Williams, O'Keefe, O'Loughlin, Hall, Ball, Ablett, Barry, Bevan, Bolton x 2, Goodes, Fosdike, Kirk, for example.

Maybe you need to do your VERY detailed analysis on more than a few occasions? No disrespect intended.

Of course, I'm not factoring in ineffective possessions etc, but to say he's the antithesis of Buchanan is drawing a long bow.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by tantrum
Of course, I'm not factoring in ineffective possessions etc, but to say he's the antithesis of Buchanan is drawing a long bow.

Ineffective possessions is a key difference. Buchanan makes more errors but also makes more things happen.

[tantrum]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Ineffective possessions is a key difference. Buchanan makes more errors but also makes more things happen.

I agree!

[SimonH]

Stuff about Adelaide (and there's a moral)

Talkin' more generally, the site is a great one. It proves that it's different strokes for different folks depending on your strengths.

Adelaide is 13th in kicks, 11th in long kicks, 14th in marks and 12th in contested marks; but 3rd in handpasses.

All of that would seem to be a recipe for a team coming down the bottom of the ladder (all together now: "Kiiiiiiick iiiiit!"), but with the team that they've got, they've been extremely well coached. (And it pains me to say that 'cos I've never had any time for Neil Craig.) If they just bombed it long into the forward line they were always going to get flogged... even if it went in quickly. Despite Scott Welsh kicking 50 goals, Adelaide are bottom of the league in allowing their opponent to rebound from inside defensive 50, meaning that if they do kick to an even-money contest in their 50, things are liable to go wrong.

Where Sydney's plan is to run in numbers, link up chains of handpasses to create the loose man and then kick it long and fast to the forward line, Adelaide just runs in numbers, links up chains of handpasses... and keeps running in numbers until it gets a shot on goal!

It's easy to forget these days that Adelaide were confidently predicted to be cellar-dwellers by pretty much anyone you cared to ask at the start of the year. Just to take the first 10 samples from the above link: 14, 13, 14, 13, 14, 16, 15, 15, 12, 12. That's pretty darn universal condemnation. As a dude by the name of UNIT summed it up in predicting they'd come last, "Their list is shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiite." Have a look at the Adelaide v Collingwood R21 teams. Man for man, I rackon that the Woods clearly had the more talented side.

So have Sydney got the cattle to go all the way? Hell yeah-- we've just gotta do the right stuff with 'em!

[Bart]

Re: Stuff about Adelaide (and there's a moral)

Frees Against Ranked 1st

[NMWBloods]

Good comments SimonH (I have the same view on Neil Craig too!!).