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Here's my guess as to what will happen.
There is one crucial bit of evidence missing that is essential for a charge to be laid. There is no vision of the contact. Thus it is not possible to determine if the alleged strike was with an open palm or a fist; nor is it possible to determine what part of the body was struck. Macguire's reaction suggests it was the solar plexus, but player reaction is not a reliable indicator of this.
I will bring up another case to illustrate my point. In round 21, a Kangaroos player was reported by the umpire for striking Amon Buchanan. From the umpire's perspective, and the front-on vision, there was apparent contact and then Amon Buchanan grabbed the back of his head. Was he punched in the head? No. There was additional footage from behind that clearly showed the contact was with an open palm to Amon's back. The report was withdrawn.
This is why I feel Bazza cannot be charged with a specific offence. Bazza can claim the contact was with a palm. The tribunal doesn't generally get victim evidence because of its unreliability. Without evidence to the contrary it's difficult to sustain a precise charge.
If my understanding of this evidence is incorrect, a striking charge is likely to be sustained. I feel there's two possible outcomes. One outcome is a 225-point offence which results in a suspension, or a 125-point offence that results in Bazza playing. If there's a reprimand, Bazza will take it, but if there's a likely suspension it will be contested.
There is one crucial bit of evidence missing that is essential for a charge to be laid. There is no vision of the contact. Thus it is not possible to determine if the alleged strike was with an open palm or a fist; nor is it possible to determine what part of the body was struck. Macguire's reaction suggests it was the solar plexus, but player reaction is not a reliable indicator of this.
I will bring up another case to illustrate my point. In round 21, a Kangaroos player was reported by the umpire for striking Amon Buchanan. From the umpire's perspective, and the front-on vision, there was apparent contact and then Amon Buchanan grabbed the back of his head. Was he punched in the head? No. There was additional footage from behind that clearly showed the contact was with an open palm to Amon's back. The report was withdrawn.
This is why I feel Bazza cannot be charged with a specific offence. Bazza can claim the contact was with a palm. The tribunal doesn't generally get victim evidence because of its unreliability. Without evidence to the contrary it's difficult to sustain a precise charge.
If my understanding of this evidence is incorrect, a striking charge is likely to be sustained. I feel there's two possible outcomes. One outcome is a 225-point offence which results in a suspension, or a 125-point offence that results in Bazza playing. If there's a reprimand, Bazza will take it, but if there's a likely suspension it will be contested.
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