Penrith....up or down?

[Coastal Boy]

Penrith are struggling in first division this year. However they are equal top spot in third division. (A little weird really)

Hypothetically(but a real possibility) if they win third div and spoon first div where does that leave the relegation/promotion system? The rules stipulate a club cannot enter 2 teams in the same division. So will Penrith be promoted from 3rd to 2nd div and thus be saved from relegation from 1st div or be relegated from 1st div and be given a chance to go back-to-back in 3rd div?

The ramifications for the sides at the top and bottom of 2nd div who may avoid movement are significant.

It's also big for Penrith who may win 2nd and 3rd div next year....or be at the bottom of 1st and 2nd.

Naturally it's not Penriths doing or decision(at least I hope not) but they may be in the middle of it. Clubs may not give a toss about it now but if they are affected may have more to say about it in due time.

[ShortHalfHead]

It's an interesting one, Coastal and has been discussed at length by the club.
Firstly, to allay any fears of possible "tanking", we have the strongest desire to remain in Div 1. This year has been a horrific one for us in div 1 with a very high number of long term injuries as well as a number of players taking overseas sojourns. Despite that, we have been competitive in most games, failing to grab wins by three or so goals on many occasions.

The Div 3, Div 1 scenario was discussed a while ago with the league "What comes first, promotion or relegation?" The league wasn't really sure.. We are certainly comfortable with senior sides in D1, 3 and 5 at the moment (as well as the 19's and ladies team.

The club has always aspired to play at the highest level since 2010 when we had our Div 3 and Div 4 teams both being beaten in the Grand Final. We put a lengthy submission to the league at the end of that year to be promoted in both grades and were granted admission for the Div 3 side to go up (And subsequently won the Div 2 flag

In recent years teams have asked to drop back a grade due to circumstances as well as a dominate team being asked to go up a grade and not doing so.

I'm still confident that we can stay in Div 1 by winning enough games (and a better percentage). Our "grand final" is probably against Uni NSW in a few weeks. They also have a team in Div 2 however, but they also face relegation to Div 3.

Whatever happens on the ladders between now and then will not affect our strong intention to remain in Div 1, where I believe we belong

[mountainsofpain]

One of the better bottom sides I've seen for a while.

Percentage of 72 and a f/a difference of 248 points - with 13 losses, and even allowing for the sole win, the average loss would only be around 20 points.

[Mug Punter]

I'd be inclined to leave the decision to the club in question. I've always felt that Penrith have huge potential but League really is king out there, especially now they have their act together. Have GWS been any assistance to your club at all?

It's an unusual issue and it does expose the vagaries of divisionalisation. Another reason why Div 1 - Div 2 set up with each club fielding two sides is worth considering now.....

[mountainsofpain]

I'd be inclined to leave the decision to the club in question. I've always felt that Penrith have huge potential but League really is king out there, especially now they have their act together. Have GWS been any assistance to your club at all?

It's an unusual issue and it does expose the vagaries of divisionalisation. Another reason why Div 1 - Div 2 set up with each club fielding two sides is worth considering now.....

Not necessarily.

You would be basically returning to the old setup which saw so many inequities. (Ie two divisions with Firsts/Reserves and a single grade third division for bits and pieces).

If you did so, those inequities may well return. Five years isn't necessarily long enough for stabilisation. Remember - one of the major reasons that Penrith (as this thread is about them) is in such good shape at all these days is because of the divisions.

[Coastal Boy]

I'd be inclined to leave the decision to the club in question.....

I don't think it's as simple as that. Remember there may be a winner of Div 2 who is hanging on a promotion or maybe a struggling div 2 team needing some respite in a lower division.

IMO the automatic promo/relegation system should lose the "automatic". Each year each division should be reviewed by the league but with consideration of many factors: results over 2-3 years, percentage and not just wins, planned recruiting or likely player losses(ie consultation with the club in point) and what is best for Sydney footy in the long term.

I look at a couple of examples:

UNSW promoted from div 3 but lost many of their team to retirements after the gf and thus struggle in div 2.

St George relegated from div 1 but had a 20 year quality record and thus quickly dominate div 2 and are promoted.

If the league held off for another year in these cases the need for movement would have been avoided.

With this in mind a team like Wests in div 2 are on top but should possibly not be promoted even if they win. Their last few years in div 1 were not competitive and a jump back up there may be premature.

Sometimes even 2 teams should go up or down from a division

I doubt the "settling" of the divisions will ever occur. Teams strengthen and weaken constantly and lopsided competitions are normal. How or when to manipulate them is the question.

[The Student]

I think it's pretty much at the discretion of the AFL - we were supposed to have our Div 2 side go up after winning last season but due to Wollongong and Balmain dropping back there from PD was no room for us so we had to stay where we were. Would have been good for our PD setup to have the team in Div 1 but it wasn't the end of the world.

[Chicken Legs]

It's pretty simple to me!

Premier Division:
1- Manly
2- Wests
3- Penno
4- North Shore
5- Syd Uni
6- Syd Hills Eagles
7- St George
8- UNSW
9- UTS
10- C'Town

Division One:

1- Balmain
2- Mac Uni
3- Parra
4- Southern Power
5- Illawarra
6- Penrith
7- Blacktown
8- Camden
9- Moorebank
10- Randwick, Norwest or Gosford

Division Two: (PD Reserves)

1- Manly
2- Wests
3- Penno
4- North Shore
5- Syd Uni
6- Syd Hills Eagles
7- St George
8- UNSW
9- UTS
10- C'Town

Division Three: (Div 1 Reserves)

1- Balmain
2- Mac Uni
3- Parra
4- Southern Power
5- Illawarra
6- Penrith
7- Blacktown
8- Camden
9- Moorebank
10- Randwick, Norwest or Gosford

[mountainsofpain]

Further to my previous post, I had a look at Penrith's losing margins in Div 1.
2, 49, 31, 13, 16, 3, 16, 8, 26, 54, 14, 16 and 17.

That's only four losses out of 13 over 20 points and an average losing margin overall of around 20.

That's hardly a relegation worthy season. Especially now that they have knocked off the 2nd placed side.

[often_confused]

While Chicken Legs has produced an elegant solution it does not address the imbalance in results that drove divisionalisation in the first place. Balmain are likely to murder some other teams in the proposed Div 1 and similar imbalances would be embedded in the other divisions. The design is strikingly similar to the old SFL / SFA separation, albeit with different clubs.

I think we have a better balance with the promotion / relegation structure and that may mean Balmain may push back into Prems, if they can get the off field up to scratch and the finances worked out. Despite Hills Eagles win on the weekend they have had too many big losses this season and that will require adjustment in NEAFL (an even more complex issue). Those losses include 7 losses by over 50 points.

All clubs go through cycles and the promotion system allows for that. It also recognises that some clubs do not have the depth and thus a Prem Club might have its reserves in Div 2 or 3 while others properly have them in Div 1. The current divisions appears to be working, let's not change it again.

[Chicken Legs]

While Chicken Legs has produced an elegant solution it does not address the imbalance in results that drove divisionalisation in the first place. Balmain are likely to murder some other teams in the proposed Div 1 and similar imbalances would be embedded in the other divisions. The design is strikingly similar to the old SFL / SFA separation, albeit with different clubs.

I think we have a better balance with the promotion / relegation structure and that may mean Balmain may push back into Prems, if they can get the off field up to scratch and the finances worked out. Despite Hills Eagles win on the weekend they have had too many big losses this season and that will require adjustment in NEAFL (an even more complex issue). Those losses include 7 losses by over 50 points.

All clubs go through cycles and the promotion system allows for that. It also recognises that some clubs do not have the depth and thus a Prem Club might have its reserves in Div 2 or 3 while others properly have them in Div 1. The current divisions appears to be working, let's not change it again.

Whilst I don't disagree with the above the current system does not work when the smaller but stronger season clubs have to compete with the Big Boys come finals or near finals!!

Have a look at how many guys will all of a sudden qualify for lower grade finals from PD, U19's Div 1, Div 1 and as low as Div 2.