Three Strikes and You're Out

[sharp9]

Someone this morning in one of the papers wrote that if the Swans lose to Carlton then we will officially be rebuilding.

Jumping the gun?
Harsh call?
Silly over reaction?

I think it's correct. If we can't beat Carlton tomorrow with a near premiership 22, all on field players fully fit (except maybe Willo) and 2 hidings to get motivated by and learn from, then it is over. The season isn't necessarily over, but the Premiership team of 2005 would be over with all credits spent and the team to go forward completely on form.

If we can't win tomorrow then the attempt to continue unchanged from 2005 will have officially failed and wholesale changes to the philosophy of how we play and who we select will have to change. We will be rebuilding...maybe only 2 or 3 players will change from the best 22 but how the players are used will have to alter (ie Kirk to tagging, Malceski, McVeigh, Davis, Goodes on ball).

I note that Buchanan has been named as rover again. Please Roosy give him a go! Don't put our best ball winning player in the forward pocket for long stretches again!

[sharp9]

And just so you don't think I'm being completely unreasonable here is a quote from the Herald

"It's all about attitude," Roos said. "If we don't change our attitude pretty quickly we could find ourselves in a rebuilding year."

Roos said it was the players' lack of effort more than departing from the game plan or their individual roles that was the underlying cause of the defending premier's early-season form slump.

And, while he is not panicking, the mastermind of the Swans' first flag in 72 years has indicated that if things don't dramatically improve against Carlton he will start to look for players with the right attitude.

"If we don't get players who are prepared to make the effort then we will have to look at making changes," Roos said.

[Go Swannies]

Do they strip them of the Premiership? That'd certainly show them.

I didn't know the rule was that one time premiers (Bombers 2000, Lions 2001, Port 2004, Swans 2005) only had three games to come good. Does that mean that Leigh, the old softy, was too generous giving the Lions' Premiership players more than nine games to come good in 2005? Watching hacks like Lappin, Leppitsch, Voss and even Akermanis trying to run around last night, you'd be tempted to think so. If they can't make it by R3 2006 they should be dumped to make way for some new talent. Good thing they are getting good value from Ben Fixter.

[NMWBloods]

None of those previous premiers lost their first three games.

[Schneiderman]

Better to rejig the side in Round 4 than wait till Round 12 like Port did last year. How many we lose is less of an issue than how we lose.

[Go Swannies]

After the first two months last year many on this site were recommending giving the 2005 season away and using it to rebuild. Personally, I'm glad the Swans decided to ignore that advice. I'm glad of the Premiership memories.

I'm presuming that the Premiership players haven't lost the skills they had last year. But I am worrying that they are letting other teams rake up too many wins that will be hard to pin back. We need to start winning soon - hopefully tomorrow. And Roos is right - the established players need to know that they are on notice to improve.

But the year after a Premiership I'd be happiest to win back-to-back of course but otherwise I could live with 3-6 (even 8) with the team we have plus some young talent, more than finishing 10-14th with a team of inproving youngsters. If we don't finish in the Eight, we'll live with decades of "2005 - the year the Swans fluked the Premiership". Playing good September footy is the only way to dispel that recurrent rumour out of Melbourne (and the ever-bitter Perth). Most of the current team getting their fingers out is the best way of that happening. I hope it's soon but I'm prepared to wait.

And there's no evidence that the Swans team has fallen apart through tension, hated and politics the way Port did after their Flag. So we should be in a better position to do better than they did last year.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
If we don't finish in the Eight, we'll live with decades of "2005 - the year the Swans fluked the Premiership".

Yep, that will be very annoying!

[dimelb]

I suspect there is a rhythm to teams' fortunes. We were fortunate last year in that we had a very settled team, people playing to their capacity most of the time and a good run (helped by good management) with injuries. Also, players peaked at the right time. Consider the changes: the ruck division loses Ball and gets Chambers; Tadhg goes missing (not his fault of course); Willo stays on a season too long (I'd be delighted to be proved wrong) - apart from any other changes that's enough to tip the balance. On the other hand other outfits step up: the Bulldogs are going to be formidable (and so they should with those draft picks); the Saints still have a good list, who seem to have hardened their resolve; and the Eagles (with a super list) and Adelaide (with a very useful bunch) are hungrier than ever; not to mention Geelong, who will be very aware of the difference their injuries no doubt made last September.
The odds are against us repeating the dose - not impossible, but against us. If we are to have a show in 2006, we must beat Carlton.

[Frog]

Originally posted by dimelb
If we are to have a show in 2006, we must beat Carlton.

Why ??? We were 2 - 4 after 6 rounds last year ...

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by Frog
Why ??? We were 2 - 4 after 6 rounds last year ...

And played our worst game of the season in R10 against the Saints at the Dome.

Last year we certainly deserved to lose our first game - it was only because the Hawks were worse than us that our deplorable skills in R1 produced a substantial win.

The next week, we played the Roos in Manuka and looked perhaps worse than we did last weekend (and that's an achievement).

We came good in week 3 against the Lions at the Gabba - even if we only took the lead after the final siren. Before that, we weren't looking convincing.

So we are on track this year. It seems we can't get fast season starts right and we have to work very hard towards the end of the season because of that.

But it could be worse - we could have the soft tissue injuries that plague the Saints, and seem set to continue this season despite a complete change of fitness coaches.

[Bas]

I think a balanced analysis of where the Swans are at the moment, can be found in Mick Malthouse's article in the Weekend Australian today.

Malthouse sums up the Swans current position perfectly. I was surprised that he too wasn't bagging the Swans.

Basically, he compares the Swans to the West Coast in 92.

[NMWBloods]

Malthouse's article

[dimelb]

Excellent article.