Round 19: the other games.

[dejavoodoo44]

I'm cheering for Adelaide to render as much damage to the Suns' percentage as possible.

Though Fremantle beating Collingwood is probably not helpful. But I quite like, the "Collingwood always win the close ones" mythology getting another reality check.

[MattW]

Though Fremantle beating Collingwood is probably not helpful. But I quite like, the "Collingwood always win the close ones" mythology getting another reality check.

No, it's not helpful.

Fremantle are safe now. We're left cheering losses by Gold Coast, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. If they all lose all their games against top 8 teams, GC would also need to lose two games to teams in the bottom 8 and Hawthorn would also need to lose one against a bottom 8 team for us to make it. Unless we somehow wrested a percentage lead from one of them, which looks very difficult.

[Velour&Ruffles]

No, it's not helpful.

Fremantle are safe now. We're left cheering losses by Gold Coast, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. If they all lose all their games against top 8 teams, GC would also need to lose two games to teams in the bottom 8 and Hawthorn would also need to lose one against a bottom 8 team for us to make it. Unless we somehow wrested a percentage lead from one of them, which looks very difficult.

Frankly we don’t deserve to be there this year. There are reasons for that but I don’t want to fall into the 8 based on those sorts of circumstances. I’d rather we have a long break and reload for 2026. It’s not as if we will do any damage if we limp into the 8 based on the failure of other teams.

[MattW]

Frankly we don’t deserve to be there this year. There are reasons for that but I don’t want to fall into the 8 based on those sorts of circumstances. I’d rather we have a long break and reload for 2026. It’s not as if we will do any damage if we limp into the 8 based on the failure of other teams.

If we make the final 8 from here, we would mean we have won 8 in a row including beating four top 8 teams in that run (Fremantle, GWS, Brisbane and Geelong). I don't think we'd be limping into the 8 in that scenario, and we would fancy ourselves against whichever team is 5th.

Of course, that's hugely unlikely, but still possible so of interest to me, and I reckon the team. The purpose of an AFL season is to make and win finals.

[Thunder Shaker]

Frankly we don’t deserve to be there this year. There are reasons for that but I don’t want to fall into the 8 based on those sorts of circumstances. I’d rather we have a long break and reload for 2026. It’s not as if we will do any damage if we limp into the 8 based on the failure of other teams.

It's not a case of "deserving" to play finals, but earning a place in the finals. That is done over a whole season.

This year looks like a 10th-placed finish. Not so great, but it could be worse, like Essendon's horrible season.

[Velour&Ruffles]

If we make the final 8 from here, we would mean we have won 8 in a row including beating four top 8 teams in that run (Fremantle, GWS, Brisbane and Geelong). I don't think we'd be limping into the 8 in that scenario, and we would fancy ourselves against whichever team is 5th.

Of course, that's hugely unlikely, but still possible so of interest to me, and I reckon the team. The purpose of an AFL season is to make and win finals.

If you have to rely on another team losing 3 of their last 5 games and a crapload of percentage then you really aren’t a deserving finalist. You have fluked your way in.

[dejavoodoo44]

Just to add to the previous comments about the hapless Essendon featuring in prime slots. For some reason, the AFL have scheduled two Friday night games next round: Essendon v Western Bulldogs and Sydney v GWS. Guess which one is being shown live on free to air, up here in Queensland. Grrr!

[Thunder Shaker]

If you have to rely on another team losing 3 of their last 5 games and a crapload of percentage then you really aren’t a deserving finalist. You have fluked your way in.

In such a hypothetical scenario, the team that would have fallen out of the finals in the final rounds didn't deserve to be there on form.

Carlton 2022: 11 wins by round 17 and outside the top four on percentage. They lost four of their last five games and finished ninth, missing the finals by 0.6%. Had they scored ten more points over the whole season, they would have made the finals. Had they not lost to Collingwood in the final round (by one point), they would have made the finals.

The final round was the only time Carlton were not in the top eight all season. The Bulldogs replaced them in the final eight, after being no higher than eighth all season.

To make the finals in the last five rounds of 2022, the Bulldogs had a good foundation. They were tenth after round 17, 2022 but were out of the top eight by only one game and about six percent. Right now, Sydney's outside the top eight by two games and 19 percent.

A late run to the finals needs a better foundation than the Swans currently have.

Yes, relying on one team's form to fall away is unlikely. In this case, it's even more unlikely because two teams that need to lose form, not one. Sydney will probably finish tenth.

[BRS328]

Frankly we don’t deserve to be there this year. There are reasons for that but I don’t want to fall into the 8 based on those sorts of circumstances. I’d rather we have a long break and reload for 2026. It’s not as if we will do any damage if we limp into the 8 based on the failure of other teams.

Reluctantly I have to agree with you

[neilfws]

Though Fremantle beating Collingwood is probably not helpful. But I quite like, the "Collingwood always win the close ones" mythology getting another reality check.

I'm continually fascinated by the way headline writers at The Age can make any victory versus Collingwood all about - Collingwood, rather than the winner.

Freo win - the headline is ‘Can’t help but feel frustrated’: Collingwood lament back-to-back single-digit defeats.

Suns win - this one is really good - Magpies show strength in defeat, but big questions remain.

I think they have some kind of mandated mid-week quota for "Pies puff pieces" too.

[dejavoodoo44]

I'm continually fascinated by the way headline writers at The Age can make any victory versus Collingwood all about - Collingwood, rather than the winner.

Freo win - the headline is ‘Can’t help but feel frustrated’: Collingwood lament back-to-back single-digit defeats.

Suns win - this one is really good - Magpies show strength in defeat, but big questions remain.

I think they have some kind of mandated mid-week quota for "Pies puff pieces" too.

I suspect that a long time ago, decisions were made in the Victorian media, that many people turn on the TV or buy the newspaper, for the Aussie Rules coverage, and that those people should given what they want. Since Collingwood have often had the largest fan base, then their fans are the ones who have been most catered to, and that inherent bias has become the standard way of thinking.

I find it more irksome in TV coverage that is supposed to cater to a national audience. You have largely Melbourne based commentators, who read Victorian columnists and listen to other Victorian based talking heads, giving their opinions on a game between a traditionally powerful Victorian club and a club from somewhere other than Victoria. Inevitably there's a tendency to question decisions against the Victorian club, but say nothing when more questionable decisions go their way. And specifically in Collingwood games, they spend much more time discussing a yet to happen Collingwood comeback, than they do discussing how the opposition managed to get five or six goals in front.