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After this round, there are two rounds plus one more game remaining. Here is the state of play.
* Adelaide cannot miss the finals. Every other team in the top 8 could still miss the finals.
* West Coast will finish last.
* Sydney will almost certainly finish 10th. The last two rounds would have to produce very unlikely results by enormous margins to change this.
* All other finishing positions are undecided.
And clueless writers for the Age are claiming "worst season ever?" Rubbish. They know nothing."Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi finalComment
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Spot on. Any of the top 9 could finish just about anywhere. In many other seasons if we’d won 12 games we’d have made the finals, and we should have won 3 other matches this year anyway. The AFL media landscape is a salt-pan of desiccated intellects and blasted imaginations.Comment
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Yes, the number of wins needed to finish in eighth spot is higher than usual this year. A small point regarding "other seasons": until 2022, each team played 22 games, not 23. The introduction of Gather Round has slightly changed the calculation on number of wins to make the finals.
Here are the numbers for the last 10 years for the team finishing in eighth position. If they had the same number of wins as the team in ninth, percentage was also needed and this is noted. To facilitate a comparison, I have calculated winning percentages.
2024: 56.5% (13 wins / 23) plus percentage
2023: 54.3% (12.5 wins / 23)
2022: 54.5% (12 wins / 22) plus percentage
2021: 50.0% (11 wins / 22)
2020: 55.9% (9.5 wins / 17) - shortened season due to the pandemic
2019: 54.5% (12 wins / 22)
2018: 59.1% (13 wins / 22)
2017: 54.5% (12 wins / 22) plus percentage
2016: 54.5% (12 wins / 22) plus percentage
2015: 59.1% (13 wins / 22)
2025 is currently at 14 wins after 21 games for eighth spot, a winning percentage of 66.7%. This is approximately 1.5 games more than 2018 and 2015, the seasons where eighth had the highest winning percentage in previous seasons."Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi finalComment
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While a label of "worst season ever" seems misplaced, there does seem to be a big divide this year between the top nine and the rest (or maybe the top nine, the bottom eight, and us somewhat in between).
For as long as I can remember, there have been two or three hopeless teams who simply weren't competitive. Even then, those teams sometimes pulled off surprises. (Remember that, for much of last season, the only game the ladder leader had lost was to the bottom placed side). But this year, there has been a much larger chunk of teams who are unable to compete against those nearer the top. Rather than have 12 or 13 teams still chasing a finals spot a few weeks out, it's basically been nine teams for half the season. We are the only team outside the nine who has pulled off a few wins against those in the top nine.
Sadly, for us, it was actually two losses to teams below us (Port and Essendon - one poor half and poor goal conversion in the half where we played OK) that have cost us the chance to still be in the finals race.Comment
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