Is Roos a genius?

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  • Go Swannies
    Veterans List
    • Sep 2003
    • 5697

    Is Roos a genius?

    This long article makes fascinating reading for every Swans supporter:



    It also xexplains why our PR was looking very realxed when we were playing poor footy at the start of the season.

    Here's the vital bit:

    "Which place on the ladder at Rd 7 has spawned most Premierships?

    The Premier has come anywhere from top place at Rd 7 to 11th place; Adelaide was 11th after Rd 7 in 1998. Sydney was 10th at Rd 7 last year. The team in first place has won the flag twice (Carl 1995; Ess 2000 ? both were 7-0). But the position with the most success is fifth, which has won three Premierships (NM 1996; Bris 2002 and 2003). Does that mean Sydney will repeat its 2005 success?"

    And how close is he modelling his season plan this year on Leigh's back-to-backs??
  • j s
    Think positive!
    • Jan 2003
    • 3303

    #2
    There is one obvious flaw in that whole statistical analysis - where is Sydney 1996?

    If they are going to start leaving results out then the whole thing becomes pointless.

    Comment

    • RogueSwan
      McVeigh for Brownlow
      • Apr 2003
      • 4602

      #3
      Re: Is Roos a genius?

      Re: Is Roos a genius?

      Yes
      "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

      Comment

      • shippo
        ?
        Site Admin
        • Jun 2005
        • 132

        #4
        He's a genius, a la Ivan Reichman.
        "She said 'Come look there's a wardrobe of love in my eye'. Take your time, look around, and see if there's something your size."
        Wardrobe Of Love, Ishtar

        Comment

        • msb
          On the Rookie List
          • Mar 2006
          • 827

          #5
          Those like all stats mean nothing

          Comment

          • NMWBloods
            Taking Refuge!!
            • Jan 2003
            • 15819

            #6
            To say that all stats mean nothing is simply ill-informed.

            Some of those states are interesting. Some are obvious. Some of the conclusions are specious.

            The ladder position and premierships is the most questionable conclusion.
            Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

            "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

            Comment

            • CureTheSane
              Carpe Noctem
              • Jan 2003
              • 5032

              #7
              The one thing that was made abundantly clear to me after lest season was that it's all about making the final 8.

              Sure, the higher up you are means you have the better win/loss ratio, but in a comp. where not every team plays each other twice, that can lose it's meaning.
              Also the form of a team entering the finals maens a lot.

              So the upsaide for me is that I find it easier to watch the Swans play (and lose) so long as we finish in the top 1/2 of the teams.

              The downside is that I lost a bit of the home & away passion for winning.
              The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

              Comment

              • barry
                Veterans List
                • Jan 2003
                • 8499

                #8
                Originally posted by CureTheSane
                The one thing that was made abundantly clear to me after lest season was that it's all about making the final 8.

                \
                Its all about making top 4 IMO.

                Comment

                • goswannie14
                  Leadership Group
                  • Sep 2005
                  • 11166

                  #9
                  Originally posted by j s
                  There is one obvious flaw in that whole statistical analysis - where is Sydney 1996?
                  But we didn't win the premiership in 1996.
                  Does God believe in Atheists?

                  Comment

                  • liz
                    Veteran
                    Site Admin
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 16773

                    #10
                    Originally posted by NMWBloods

                    The ladder position and premierships is the most questionable conclusion.
                    As I interpreted it, no conclusion was drawn - that was the point.

                    Or to put it "statistically", if one did a regression analysis to predict the premier based on ladder position after round 7, there would be a very large error term. I suspect the result wouldn't be that much different using even the round 22 ladder position.

                    Comment

                    • NMWBloods
                      Taking Refuge!!
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 15819

                      #11
                      Sorry yes - he didn't draw a conclusion, but the inference was there and I think it doesn't really mean anything.
                      Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                      "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                      Comment

                      • Sanecow
                        Suspended by the MRP
                        • Mar 2003
                        • 6917

                        #12
                        Originally posted by barry
                        Its all about making top 4 IMO.
                        Or the top five for Adelaide.

                        Comment

                        • Legs Akimbo
                          Grand Poobah
                          • Apr 2005
                          • 2809

                          #13
                          I am pretty certain that a regression would show that being inside the eight at the end of the season is a good predictor variable for dependent variable, Premier. After that, it's getting pretty muddy.
                          He had observed that people who did lie were, on the whole, more resourceful and ambitious and successful than people who did not lie.

                          Comment

                          • Sanecow
                            Suspended by the MRP
                            • Mar 2003
                            • 6917

                            #14
                            I think you'll find it's restricted to the top five.

                            Comment

                            • katie-scarlett
                              On the Rookie List
                              • Dec 2005
                              • 515

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Legs Akimbo
                              I am pretty certain that a regression would show that being inside the eight at the end of the season is a good predictor variable for dependent variable, Premier. After that, it's getting pretty muddy.
                              i just passed stat170.
                              dear goodness me to whatever you just attempted to explain..

                              Comment

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