Our opposition?

[Go Swannies]

Last night Old Royboy and I were trying to come up with a likely 8 after I said that I didn't think that the Saints or Cats would be playing finals this year.

The list of eight was easy to start:
Weagles,
Pies,
Swans,
Dogs (they look the real deal I reckon) and
Crows (even after the Richmond fiasco).
And probably the Dees though they have a record of fading.

That leaves two spots. I'm at a loss to pick them.

Freo - won with woeful skills at Subi yesterday

Hawks - doubt if they'll last the distance but may get better when some come back from injury.

Richmond - doubt it, though yesterday's discipline by the youngsters was impressive

Saints - I've picked Carlton to beat them today.

Cats - I picked them to be thrashed by the Pies.

Blues - when your season depends on Fev, you're in trouble

Lions - never underestimate Leigh but seems like a civil war up there.

Port - internally divided and awful

Kangaroos - shouldn't be as bad as they are so might imporve on the ladder to play finals.

Bombers - time to rebuild, fallen off the pace already.

Of course, the Bombers and Port beat us - it shows just how poorly we started this season (though Lllloyd and Hird were there then).

Having a stab at it, the Saints, Hawks, Roos and possibly Freo may be battling for the minor spots.

I know there is a long way to go but the Dogs and Swans skills last night were about the best I've seen this year. Both teams could do well in finals (esp when the Dogs get some talls back) and both could give the Eagles and Crows a battle. The Pies? They are playing really well right now and Malthouse has an excellent record in getting a team to perform above its abilities.

For the Swans, back-to-back isn't looking fanciful anymore. We need a good run with few injuries (can we afford to have Mathews out again?!) to be in a good position come finals. In September, a whole new comp fires up and who knows?

Of course, there will be some big upsets along the way. We could go down to the Saints next week (do sackcloth and ashe come in red and white?), the Eagles could lose to the Bombers this afternoon (would that be weirder than the Crows falling to the Tigers?), but the trend is there - and it's looking good.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Our opposition?

Originally posted by Go Swannies
For the Swans, back-to-back isn't looking fanciful anymore. We need a good run with few injuries (can we afford to have Mathews out again?!) to be in a good position come finals. In September, a whole new comp fires up and who knows?

I just wrote something similar in the 'Dogs match thread.

I think the missing two of the final eight will be StKilda and Freo. Potentially I think Geelong can turn things around though and sneak in.

There is still a long way to go but I think the flag will go to either Swans, Crows, Pies or Eagles.

The first three have the best even spread across the ground. Eagles still lack a key forward, but have so much other talent it naturally keeps them in the hunt.

I think the hard running game of the 'Dogs and most critically their lack of talls will make it too difficult for them toward the end of the season.

Saints lacks a ruckman, a backline and heart.

Demons are a the great unknown. They have good talent, but can go missing, and their backline is suspect.

[Schneiderman]

Re: Re: Our opposition?

Originally posted by NMWBloods
There is still a long way to go but I think the flag will go to either Swans, Crows, Pies or Eagles.

My tip for the top 4. And also my tip to play off in the PFs, with naturally one of the to pinch the flag. At the current run rate, their will be some blow out finals games until the PFs start, and then some real close results to decide the Premiers.

[liz]

Still far too early to predict. No-one would have picked the Swans as a likely top 4 team this time last year.

I'm not prepared to write off the Saints or the Cats yet. The Saints, in particular, have enough quality in their best team to blast anyone else off the field if they're in the mood. It will come down to whether they can get Kossie and Hamill back up and running later in the year, and whether they're still close enough at the point they do do this.

[msb]

We should stay in top 4....geez i hope we dont somehow play collingwood in the grand final if we make it (i know way too early to look ahead) but at the moment i have a strange feeling we will for some reason and do not want to meet them on the G, they are on fire ATM.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by msb
[Collingwood] are on fire ATM.

All fires eventually burn out.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Our opposition?

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Saints - I've picked Carlton to beat them today.

Oops...

[Go Swannies]

Re: Re: Our opposition?

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Oops...

Reckon - I think I let my dislike of the Saints get the better of me. But I did predict the Lions would easily run over Port and that the Cats would capitulate to the Pies.

So Carlton beat the Bombers and the Bombers might beat the Eagles. But the Blues couldn't even turn up to play against the Saints!

Did anyone pick Richmond? I'll get either 5 or 6 this week, depending if the Eagles win or not. I'd prefer to get 5 and have them lose.

[ROK Lobster]

Re: Re: Re: Our opposition?

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Reckon - I think I let my dislike of the Saints get the better of me. But I did predict the Lions would easily run over Port and that the Cats would capitulate to the Pies.

The Saints are great front runners, and great are burying the poorer sides. They were always going to win today. (That said, I tipped North )

[Thunder Shaker]

Re: Re: Re: Our opposition?

Originally posted by Go Swannies
But the Blues couldn't even turn up to play against the Saints!

Except for Fev of course.

[SimonH]

Geelong will be back, and most likely will make the 8.

It is sad and unusual that at this early stage there are already 6 teams that won't/don't deserve to make the 8 in Essendon, Carlton, Roos, Blions, Richmond (worst team in AFL history to make 4:4, anyone?) and Port. It is possible that (in descending order of likelihood) Blions, Roos or Port could turn it around enough to make the finals, but at best they'd flop into 8th spot and probably get knocked out in the first round of the finals. Then add in Hawthorn, who are looking more unlikely every week to make the cut; if we get over them next week, and then the Dogs beat them in round 10, they're gone. That's 7 teams in total. And one of the remaining 9 is the notoriously weak-backboned fadeout called Fremantle!

The lack of competition means that Geelong are well and truly in the mix to make the 8. A team that I've backed (Norwood, 1984) won the premiership in the same year that it lost a game by >100 points; and (IIRC) that match was further into the year than round 8. No doubt it's happened in VFL history as well.

As a team that relies on a gritty team performance, rather than a few superstars, this flogging will probably do Geelong more good for the rest of its season, than a 5 goal loss would have.

And as a team with arguably the league's highest proportion of 'Hollywood' players, hopefully Collingwood will now hope their reputation is enough to scare opposition teams, and start resting on their laurels over the next few weeks.