Can we do it from outside top 4?

[swans_premiers]

Our top 4 chances are slipping away, supporters of other teams are tipping us to finish 5th-6th. If we do this chances are we are going to have to play a home game against possibly stkilda, bulldogs or geelong..then play the losers of the qualifying finals..most likely collingwood or Melbourne. If we win this we'd probably have to travel to Perth or Adel.

Is it possible or do we simply HAVE to make top 4?

[SimonH]

1. Our top 4 chances were completely in our own hands 2 weeks ago, and they're completely in our own hands now. One game behind 4th, with superior percentage to either 4th or 5th, with 10 rounds to go, is not 'slipping away'. Who cares what other teams' supporters predict? Adelaide were universally predicted to finish bottom 4 at the start of 2005. We don't need to rely on other teams' results; we control our own destiny. And that's the important thing right now.

2. You cannot win the premiership from outside the top 4 in the current AFL system. Making the PF would be an extraordinary achievement, making the GF would be a miracle, and winning it would be asking for miracles on miracles. It would be like Australia winning the World Cup-- it's technically possible; there is no team that it could play on the way to the final that it's physically incapable of beating-- but there comes a point where you go from merely improbable to totally unrealistic. Finishing top 4 is basically what you play the minor round for; if you fail to do it, you're just clocking up valuable finals experience in the first couple of weeks.

[Damien]

Originally posted by SimonH
2. You cannot win the premiership from outside the top 4 in the current AFL system. Making the PF would be an extraordinary achievement, making the GF would be a miracle, and winning it would be asking for miracles on miracles. It would be like Australia winning the World Cup-- it's technically possible; there is no team that it could play on the way to the final that it's physically incapable of beating-- but there comes a point where you go from merely improbable to totally unrealistic. Finishing top 4 is basically what you play the minor round for; if you fail to do it, you're just clocking up valuable finals experience in the first couple of weeks. [/B]

I don't see a massive difference with last year though if we were outside top 4.

Instead of Loss-Win-Win-Win- we would have to Win-Win-Win- Win. With our home game being week 1 instead of week 2.

The biggest issue may be where the away matches are of course.

[SimonH]

You're right about the 'it matters where the games are' issue.

Sorry, I'll add one thing (which is cold comfort for us). It could be done if:
a) you're a Victorian team
b) you play your first week's game in Victoria (doesn't matter if it's a home game), and
c) at least one of your 2 semi-final/PF opponents is also a Victorian team.
This would have the net effect that you only travel once.

Even presuming that week 1 is an injury-free home game walk in the park, you cannot realistically expect that you will travel interstate to play a knockout final against a top 4 team, win it, and then travel interstate again (probably to a different state) and win another knockout final against a top 4 team. And then, having topped the unlikely with the virtually impossible, front up with your best game on display against the best in the GF.

Sure, all it takes is 4 wins in a row. But, take my word for it, those 4 wins won't be forthcoming very often. Once in every, say, 72 years would be a good premiership return for the 5-8ers.

[ScottH]

Re: Can we do it from outside top 4?

Why not?

If we are in form in September anything can happen.

[elroy67]

Winning from outside the top 4 becomes 'less' difficult if the cards fall in such a way that you played most finals on the MCG.

Its hard to see that this will happen with West Coast and Adelaide entrenched in the top 4.

[Zlatorog]

Do the players really want it? If they are not injured than it's all in their heads.

[Plugger46]

Re: Can we do it from outside top 4?

Originally posted by swans_premiers
Our top 4 chances are slipping away, supporters of other teams are tipping us to finish 5th-6th. If we do this chances are we are going to have to play a home game against possibly stkilda, bulldogs or geelong..then play the losers of the qualifying finals..most likely collingwood or Melbourne. If we win this we'd probably have to travel to Perth or Adel.

Is it possible or do we simply HAVE to make top 4?

Too early to tell. There's 10 games of footy to go.

If we're travelling well going into the finals, anything can happen. A lot will happen in the next 10 weeks.

[dendol]

Re: Re: Can we do it from outside top 4?

Originally posted by Plugger46
Too early to tell. There's 10 games of footy to go.

If we're travelling well going into the finals, anything can happen. A lot will happen in the next 10 weeks.

If this team can make it to September with a few wins under their belt, then anything is possible. We've got the finals' experience to know what it takes to win the big games, so it depends how we're travelling in the last month or so.

[hammo]

Our premiership chances are shot if we finish outside the top 4.

Personally I think we need to be in the top 2 this year as a PF in either Adelaide or Perth will be ugly.

[ROK Lobster]

It depends on how the team is travelling. Little point finishing top 4 if they play like they did on Sat night.