top 4

[barry]

Amazingly we are only 1 win out of top 4 at the moment.

But with our good percentage, I strongly believe we need to win 14 games this year to sneak into 4th. (Last year we won 15 and came 3rd).

That means we can only lose one more game this year, and playing Melbourne at the MCG, and Geelong at Skilled makes it tough.

We absolutely have to beat Port in Adealide this week. Need to pick our best 22. In: Doyle, Davis. Out: Richards, Phillips. Stay where you are: Matthews.

[LRTs Love Child]

I cant remember our % being this high for a long time. That said, I struggle to remember last week half the time!

Definitely need to play a 2nd ruckman this week. Lade will carve Teddy up if he's going to be our backup. So if the Donkey is fit, give him a game. At least Doyle gives us a option up forward when he's resting, unlike one P. Chambers.

[NMWBloods]

What's amazing (and frustrating) is that if we had beaten WC last week and won just one other game we would now be second!

A top 4 spot is still very much up for grabs.

The Melbourne game is a classic 8 pointer!

If we can make top 4 then I think we have a great opportunity to make the GF and even win it. I believe Adelaide are beatable.

If we don't make top 4 then I think it's really difficult. History has shown that the top 4 nearly always plays off in the preliminary finals. However, it is still pretty open this year and we've shown that we can push WC at home, and the rest of the games would be in Melbourne, where we can win.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
rest of the games would be in Melbourne, where we can win.

Of course we can win, we win more games in melb than sydney.All those close games we lost we must be kicking our selves up the arse.Our% is so good because we have lost a lot of games by only a few points no hidings in there except for the crows.

[satchmopugdog]

Originally posted by LRTs Love Child
[

Definitely need to play a 2nd ruckman this week. Lade will carve Teddy up if he's going to be our backup. [/B]

After seeing Lade play today that is very true. He is a class act. In fact, he will carve up Jolly. All we can hope is that our crumbers can read the ball from him. Very clever ruckman.

[ScottH]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
What's amazing (and frustrating) is that if we had beaten WC last week and won just one other game we would now be second!

St Kilda game was a "should've"

[573v30]

Originally posted by ScottH
St Kilda game was a "should've"

...and the Melbourne game.

[liz]

Most frustratingly, all three close games have been against other top 4 contenders, which adds to the pain.

[barry]

WC loss was caused at the selection table. Roos, you owe us one.

Irrespective of what people think of Davis, imagine if Grundy played instead of Matthews??

[ScottH]

Originally posted by barry
WC loss was caused at the selection table. Roos, you owe us one.

Irrespective of what people think of Davis, imagine if Grundy played instead of Matthews??

I was wondering the same thing, we only needed one goal from him.

[melbloods78]

Lets actually get enough wins on the board to be in the top 8 before thinking further. I am confident we can challenge from any position in the finals, we have been lucky enough to rack up quite a bit of finals experience within the team and the away performances this year have been far better than at home.

Top 4 is ideal for us interstate sides but i believe if we get there we will trouble a lot of sides

[SimonH]

Before last week, we needed 6 out of 7 to give ourselves a decent dip at going top 4. Now we need 5 out of 6.

St Kilda have a very difficult run, and the Dogs are right up against it too. The biggest threat to put us in strife by going 15:7, even if we do make our target of 14:8, is Collingwood. Putting their Adelaide in Adelaide game down as a 'L', and Port in Adelaide as a 50:50, the balance of their games are against the 4 worst teams in the comp on form: Hawthorn, Essendon, Carlton and Kangaroos. All games that Collingwood would have to lose, rather than the opposition having a serious chance of winning on their own merits.

Counterbalancing that, Melbourne are not home in the 4 yet. Games against the Dogs, Geelong in Geelong and Adelaide in Adelaide as well as us, mean that if we can beat them in Melbourne and get the other results on the board (and it's a big if), they could be the team we replace in the 4.

Interesting times.

[R-1]

Collingwood are also only a few percentage points behind us, as well as a game ahead. A few big wins against those cellar dwellers could cause us some further problems.

[iigrover]

After playing with my crystal balls...

IMO, it will be the 'pies we will need to replace to get in the top 4, not the dees. Therefore, unless the 'pies get the colliwabbles in the last few weeks, I reckon the Swans/Melb game will be the decider of whether we make it into the 4 or not.

Having said that, assuming the Swans win all games excepty for this one i think we will finish 5th and the 8 will be:

Crows (20 wins)
Eagles (17 wins)
Melb (16)
Pies (15)
Swans (14)
WB (14)
St Kilda (13)
Freo (12)

Danger games for the Swans will be Melb and the Cats, away, and Brisbane as (i predict) if they beat us they can make the 8.

[hammo]

Melbourne at the G is winnable.

They have been playing well but when the heat is turned on them they invariably collapse. Plus we play the G as good as any ground in the country now.