Rd 22 Scenarios

[sydneyswans1989]

I hate relying on other sides to win or lose, seriously it's our own fault being in this position. Losses against the weagles, saints & melbourne were all winnable being that we lost in all 3 games by under a goal.

Not forgetting a good win against the dees at the G then travelling up to geelong to play pathetic footy, that's a game we should have won with the form we were in.

Honestly I can say If the crows or port were to get up this weekend then consider the swans the luckiest side in the comp. I exspect the crows to get up at home only because the dees arn't a good travelling side & yes their record over that is not all great.

[SimonH]

It's sad to have to rely on others' results to make it, but hey, we can only influence our own games, and recrimination about games we 'shoulda won' can come when it's all over. Every year, even 2005, has games we 'shoulda won'. It's worth noting that 2006 has also contained at least one game we 'shoulda lost', namely the Roos in Canberra.

I'm sticking to my guns that we can't win the flag from 5th-8th, because it's almost impossible for anyone to win the flag from 5th-8th. Even if everything goes right from 5th, and everything goes wrong from 4th: the difference between playing a 5th-8th side at home in the 2nd week, as opposed to playing a 1st-4th side away, is monumental. The stats speak for themselves: since the current final 8 system was introduced in 2000, 1 out of 12 first-start winners from 5th-8th position have won their next week's semi-final. And that one (Hawthorn 2001, who fell over the line by 3 points against serial chokers Port) lost at the prelim stage.

Now for the optimistic part: every time this year a team has looked like the flag favourites, or looked like becoming the flag favourites, they've fallen over: Sydney have done it (post R10), Adelaide have done it in a huge way (post R16) and after Sunday, West Coast have arguably done it twice. Based on that precedent, Freo should fall in a heap against Port! I say that as a man who has foolishly tipped against Freo each of the last 3 weeks, but won't be doing so this week. C'mon Dockers-- prove me wrong again!

[elroy67]

Originally posted by SimonH
I'm sticking to my guns that we can't win the flag from 5th-8th, because it's almost impossible for anyone to win the flag from 5th-8th. Even if everything goes right from 5th, and everything goes wrong from 4th: the difference between playing a 5th-8th side at home in the 2nd week, as opposed to playing a 1st-4th side away, is monumental. The stats speak for themselves: since the current final 8 system was introduced in 2000, 1 out of 12 first-start winners from 5th-8th position have won their next week's semi-final. And that one (Hawthorn 2001, who fell over the line by 3 points against serial chokers Port) lost at the prelim stage.

I think we are a better chance than this. If ladder positions stay the same, WC beat Melb, and We beat WB in the first week of the finals. Then in the semi final we play Melb. at the MCG. This is not really an away game for us.

This is one advantage we hold over all teams come finals time.

The big problem comes in playing a preliminary final in Perth, but we are due to win a close one there against the Eagles.

[hammo]

The way the wheels have fallen off Adelaide and the hold we seem to have over West Coast (also their loss to Freo) would indicate that finishing 3 or 4 this year would represent a massive opportunity to progress straight a home preliminary final.

So it will be a HUGE lost opportunity if we finish 5th and have to go about it the hard way, while Freo and Melbourne cash in on the current situation.

The team should be kicking themselves for getting into this situation courtesy of the Geelong debacle.

[swan_song]

Originally posted by hammo
The team should be kicking themselves for getting into this situation courtesy of the Geelong debacle.

Never a truer word written here!!!

The guys all knew before that game what was needed to secure a top four spot...
However, I don't think for us that going from fifth would be so bad...a home final against the bullies, then if the guys remember to turn up to play, a win and on to the MCG for Melbourne...
Last year we had to play every week in the finals...nothing will change this year, cept for the luxury of unforgivably giving up the double chance with that p#**-weak effort against the Cats.
Then again, maybe this is Roosie's secret strategy to get us through the "easy" way, and with the hope the others bash the hell out of one another before we come along the next week with our "boring" lock-down, hard-at-it brand of footy to administer the coup de grace...
Still, after the first week of finals, it's a knockout competition for every team! But I certainly was glad of that double chance last year when we were robbed of a win in Perth in week one by some of the most scandalous umpiring we had experienced since the previous week..

[annew]

With the injuries to Adelaide and the fact that win or lose makes no difference to them I cannot see Melbourne losing to them this week. Looks like we finish 5th and play Rodney Eade's Bulldogs in Sydney in week 1 of the finals. Damn Geelong why didn't they beat Melbourne and damn West Coast why didn't they beat Fremantle.

[Dave]

Originally posted by annew
With the injuries to Adelaide and the fact that win or lose makes no difference to them

I think it makes a big difference.

I think they will be extemely keen to have a win this week.

[barry]

Originally posted by swan_song
Never a truer word written here!!!

The guys all knew before that game what was needed to secure a top four spot...
However, I don't think for us that going from fifth would be so bad...a home final against the bullies, then if the guys remember to turn up to play, a win and on to the MCG for Melbourne...
Last year we had to play every week in the finals...nothing will change this year, cept for the luxury of unforgivably giving up the double chance with that p#**-weak effort against the Cats.
Then again, maybe this is Roosie's secret strategy to get us through the "easy" way, and with the hope the others bash the hell out of one another before we come along the next week with our "boring" lock-down, hard-at-it brand of footy to administer the coup de grace...
Still, after the first week of finals, it's a knockout competition for every team! But I certainly was glad of that double chance last year when we were robbed of a win in Perth in week one by some of the most scandalous umpiring we had experienced since the previous week..

The more games you have to travel in a row, the harder it is.
Last year, the grand final was only our 2nd week of travel after the home final.
If we finish 5th, the gf will be our 3rd week of travel. Too tough IMO.