We would have been better finishing 5th

[annew]

Presuming we beat Carlton today we will meet West Coast in Perth and then if we lose that it is a home final against either St Kilda or Collingwood. Should we win that game then its back to Perth against Fremantle or off to AAMi against Adelaide. Yuk!

Now if we had finished 5th which we can't do now it would have been a home elimination final against Bulldogs and if we won that it would then have been a semi in Melbourne and then a prelim in in either Adelaide or Perth, and that would have been better than the scenario at 4th. Our only chance to get to the GF is to beat West Coast next week.

[adnar]

err any Semis are going to be non victorian. infact there will be no finals in melbourne after week 1 till the grannie.

[annew]

yep you are right my mistake. Still we do need to beat West Coast next week.

[Mike_B]

Nobody can convince me that finishing 5th is better than finishing 4th. By finishing 4th, whichever team you come up against, you give yourself a 2nd chance so the first final isn't sudden death, if you do lose you play your semi at home and if you win, you earn a preliminary final at home.

Compare this with finishing 5th where you play a sudden death final week 1, then if you win that, you travel to play a team coming off a loss the week before who would be desperate to make up for that loss.

I'd take 4th every day of the week.

[graystar]

I think we are good enough to win whoever we play in the first week, so I am not worried.

[ROK Lobster]

In addition to what Mike said...

4th is good. I'd say we are a red hot chance to do a number on the Eagles in Perth.

Edit: seems to be in addition to what graystar said too.

[hammo]

Essentially finishing top 4 gives us the chance of winning in Perth and going straight into a home preliminary final. You can't do that finishing 5th.

It is pointless looking at who we may or may not face. If you want to win the flag you need to beat whoever you play against.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by adnar
err any Semis are going to be non victorian. infact there will be no finals in melbourne after week 1 till the grannie.

If we don't make 4th then there will be one semi in Melbourne (assuming the home sides win) as there will be a Melbourne-based team in 4th.

However, at this time of the year you need to beat anyone you play, as others have said. Simply just keep winning!

[giant]

Still, I've just been running the scenarios thru my head while showering - it's where I do my best thinking....

I have some sympathy for annew's position - we are now facing the prospect of two trips to Perth in a finals progam, whereas 5th might have meant only one. Pretty daunting stuff - if 4th is going to work for us we really need to win week 1 in Perth.

BTW, if we do, my shower scenario modelling suggests that would lead to a derby prelim (with WCE having three "home" finals!) with Sydney to belt the crap out of the Crows of some Melbourne also-rans.

Exciting times indeed! And many exciting showers ahead for me!

[Tuco]

While I understand your logic, I firmly believe it makes absolutely no difference who you meet. There are no easy games in finals. But the fewer you have to endure the better.

I understand there are ramifications for losing to WC (assuming we beat Carlton, of course). But we have to go over there not only hoping we can win but KNOWING we can win.

Coming 5th and facing 3 finals with two roadtrips before even making it down to the GF is not the easiest route by a long shot.

Also from 5th there would be a good chance of meeting Freo in WA in a Prelim and that's no mean task these days! While coming 4th we will play for the right to host a Prelim of our own.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Tuco
Coming 5th and facing 3 finals with two roadtrips before even making it down to the GF is not the easiest route by a long shot.

Absolutely. However, it's what we did last year.

[Tuco]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Absolutely. However, it's what we did last year.

Ah the sweet sweet memories.

But in all fairness and being objective that was one of the most remarkable journeys I've ever seen a team endure on the way through the finals to a Premiership. Does lightning strike twice?

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Tuco
Ah the sweet sweet memories.

But in all fairness and being objective that was one of the most remarkable journeys I've ever seen a team endure on the way through the finals to a Premiership. Does lightning strike twice?

Big odds against. Remarkable (with huge doses of luck) is the word for it.

Then again, Adelaide had two remarkable finals series back to back.

It's very rare though!

[giant]

Originally posted by Tuco
Also from 5th there would be a good chance of meeting Freo in WA in a Prelim and that's no mean task these days! While coming 4th we will play for the right to host a Prelim of our own.

There's a good chance this can happen finishing fourth too.