Its in our best interests for the Crows to beat the Dockers this week

[punter257]

I don't want to sound negative, but if we did happen to lose this week there is no way we would like to go back to subi for a prelim (assuming we beat the pies or dogs)

i know adelaide isn't exactly a happy hunting ground either but i reckon we'd be a better chance against them especially the way the dockers are playing at the moment - plus it would be their 2nd only final at subi ever and they would be ruthless with the crowd etc.....

of course we can avoid all this by winning on saturday night and having a prelim at telstra stadium - i'm quietly confident (we're due to win at subi) but i am just chucking it out there

[Danzar]

Re: Its in our best interests for the Crows to beat the Dockers this week

Originally posted by punter257
I don't want to sound negative, but if we did happen to lose this week there is no way we would like to go back to subi for a prelim (assuming we beat the pies or dogs)

i know adelaide isn't exactly a happy hunting ground either but i reckon we'd be a better chance against them especially the way the dockers are playing at the moment - plus it would be their 2nd only final at subi ever and they would be ruthless with the crowd etc.....

of course we can avoid all this by winning on saturday night and having a prelim at telstra stadium - i'm quietly confident (we're due to win at subi) but i am just chucking it out there

Absolutely. While Freo doesn't have the finals experience they're the team that concerns me the most, no matter where we play them. At subi, it just gets all the more worse.

It would be great for us to win and go straight for a PF. Personally I'd prefer that WITH a Freo win. Then we avoid Freo in the PF's and face Adelaide, St Kilda or Melbourne at home.

If we lose against the toasters, then, as you say, it's better if the Crows beat the Dockers.

[liz]

Depends on whether we win or not.

Would prefer to play Freo rather than Adelaide in Sydney, but would prefer to play Adelaide in Adelaide than Freo in Perth.

Of course the Pies or Dogs might have something to say about the situation too...

[timthefish]

Originally posted by liz
Would prefer to play Freo rather than Adelaide in Sydney, but would prefer to play Adelaide in Adelaide than Freo in Perth.

these amount to the same thing don't they - adelaide beating freo?

i think that's what we want (and for us to win and be the destroyer of all hopes western in 2006)

[liz]

Originally posted by timthefish
these amount to the same thing don't they - adelaide beating freo?

i think that's what we want (and for us to win and be the destroyer of all hopes western in 2006)

No. They vary depending on whether we beat the Eagles or not. If we win and Adelaide win this weekend, the earliest we will meet them would be in the GF if both teams got there.

If we do get over the line this weekend and set up a home PF, I think I'd probably prefer to be playing a finals-inexperienced Freo at Telstra (a ground they've never played at) than Adelaide, despite the latter's injuries. Adelaide are our bogey team and have been for some time.

If we lose this weekend, we are facing an uphill battle, more so than last year when we got to play the Prelim in Melbourne. Beating either Adelaide or Freo on their home turf in a PF would be extremely difficult but maybe the injuries to Adelaide just tilt the preference towards them.

The other factor is that even if we did somehow pull one out of the bag and beat Freo in Perth, the impact of travelling twice to Perth in three weeks might be too much and we could well dive in the GF.

[Danzar]

Originally posted by liz
No. They vary depending on whether we beat the Eagles or not. If we win and Adelaide win this weekend, the earliest we will meet them would be in the GF if both teams got there.

If we do get over the line this weekend and set up a home PF, I think I'd probably prefer to be playing a finals-inexperienced Freo at Telstra (a ground they've never played at) than Adelaide, despite the latter's injuries. Adelaide are our bogey team and have been for some time.

If we lose this weekend, we are facing an uphill battle, more so than last year when we got to play the Prelim in Melbourne. Beating either Adelaide or Freo on their home turf in a PF would be extremely difficult but maybe the injuries to Adelaide just tilt the preference towards them.

The other factor is that even if we did somehow pull one out of the bag and beat Freo in Perth, the impact of travelling twice to Perth in three weeks might be too much and we could well dive in the GF.

Freo will steamroll through to the PF, finals experience or not. I'd much prefer to avoid these guys until the GF, where one hopes they crack.

I think the issue of a lack of finals experience is galvanised when the team in question is borderline in-form.

Freo are in blistering form. It doesn't matter what ground or team. Look at their winning margins.

GF's are a different kettle of fish altogether and anyone can crack under the pressure.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so.

[SimonH]

I (along with most of the rest of the footballing world) have been waiting for Freo to crack for at least 4 weeks, and so take what follows with appropriate grains of salt.

But, you don't waltz into your first finals series for 3 years, and your first one ever where you have a serious chance of making a dent, and win it. In fact, you very rarely even make the GF.

The closest recent analogy to Freo 2006 is the Blions 1999.

The Blions 1998 were a gross disappointment, somehow managing to come last despite a quality list. They had snuck into the finals and snuck out just as quickly in 1997, again a disappointment given their post-merger list concessions. The Bad News Bears had won 2 finals and scared the horses in 1996 in a best-ever result, but the squad had changed significantly since then. Certainly, their finals experience didn't hold a candle to heavyweights North Melbourne and Carlton.

Come round 14 1999, they were 8:6, just coasting along and not looking any more threatening than maybe making the lower reaches of the 8. They then stormed home with what must have been a Blions/Bears record 8 wins in a row, to go into the finals at 16:6 in 3rd spot.

Not even top-ranked Essendon or 2nd-ranked North Melbourne could match that streak. The 1999 Blions had claim to being better than the 2006 Dockers in that they had the best percentage in the comp by a mile (even better than Adelaide 2006).

Under the silly system that existed until 1999, they still had to play 2 finals to make the prelim. They duly dispatched Carlton (6th) and the Bulldogs (4th) in a couple of thumpings delivered at home.

Prelim final (albeit at the MCG): in front at half time, and hanging in there at 3/4 time, but overrun by a finals-hardened North Melbourne outfit by 45 points. Anyone who witnessed the Sydney v North Melbourne 1996 GF: you could have seen it coming a mile off.

Sure, the finals system has changed, but finals pressure and the fact that there is absolutely no substitute for finals experience, especially at the pointy end of the finals, has not. I'm tipping that Freo go LWL in this finals series (the home team winning each match). Then (if they can recapture the steely resolve that they've miraculously found after visiting Sydney) they will be stronger for the hitout in 2007.

I would prefer to meet Freo to Adelaide in any cut-throat match, played anywhere.

From Sydney's perspective, I do take the point that 2 WA trips, the last just 7 days before the GF, would seriously affect our ability to be fresh for the grannie if we did make it through. Just like 2005, losing this week will not be fatal to our premiership chances... but geez, it will be mighty close to it.

[Danzar]

Good post Simon!

You've prompted me to check some stats.

Freo have won their last nine games since their round 13 loss to the Swans at the SCG, where Freo were beaten by 33 points.

Since then, Freo have:

14. Beat Bombers by 37 at subi
15. Beat Pies by 15 away.
16. Beat Dees by 29 at subi
17. Beat Carlton by 18 away
18. Beat Hawks by 53 at subi
19. Beat the Crows by 15 away.
20. Beat the Saints by 58 at subi
21. Beat the Eagles by 57 at subi
22. Beat Port by 79 at subi

It's interesting to see these themes:

1. All of the big wins were at home.
2. The top eight sides they have beaten (more recently) they have played them at home.
3. The wins away have been on tighter margins.
4. The wins away have been mainly against bottom end teams.

While the win in the derby was telling, who knows, there could simply be an illusion that they're red hot. Maybe they've simply mastered their own ground and like the Eagles (and at at one point Brisbane at the Gabba and Sydney at the SCG), are notoriously difficult to beat on home turf.

Plus, six out of their nine straight wins were all played at subi.

So, now I think I am wrong. At the very least we want to avoid them at subi but they may actually be far easier than say the Crows when played on our home turf.

[Zlatorog]

Originally posted by Danzar
2. The top eight sides they have beaten (more recently) they have played them at home.

Except Adelaide. As your table shows they beat them at AAMI stadium. The only question remains is whether they were better than the Crows or did the Crows lose that game. Interesting question, isn't it?

[timthefish]

Originally posted by liz
No. They vary depending on whether we beat the Eagles or not. If we win and Adelaide win this weekend, the earliest we will meet them would be in the GF if both teams got there.

what i meant was that your preferences amount to the same thing. playing adelaide in adelaide can only occur if adelaide beats freo and we lose to the west-coast and win next week, similarly to play freo in sydney, we must win this weekend to earn a home final while freo must again lose to adelaide.

[Danzar]

Originally posted by Zlatorog
Except Adelaide. As your table shows they beat them at AAMI stadium. The only question remains is whether they were better than the Crows or did the Crows lose that game. Interesting question, isn't it?

It is. But the lesson to draw from that one is that Freo are really only 'flogging' the top eight sides at home. The away games are tighter margins.

For them to only just beat a bottom eight side away is even more telling. Here's hoping. I'm still concerned about Freo and feel we could all be in for a bit of a shock.

This weekend will give us a good indication.

[Albert Park]

Originally posted by Danzar
It is. But the lesson to draw from that one is that Freo are really only 'flogging' the top eight sides at home. The away games are tighter margins.

For them to only just beat a bottom eight side away is even more telling. Here's hoping. I'm still concerned about Freo and feel we could all be in for a bit of a shock.

This weekend will give us a good indication.

Freeo are more of an enigma than Swans were laqst year.
Just hope Swans can keep beating the team that is in front of them.

[Bas]

Originally posted by Albert Park
Freeo are more of an enigma than Swans were laqst year.
Just hope Swans can keep beating the team that is in front of them.

Sydney had the legacy of semi-final loss the year before and prelim the year before that. It will be interesting to see how Freo cope if they lose to crows.