What the stats say for Saturday

[goswannie14]

I was a bit worried about Saturday when looking at the last 5 years of us v WCE. The wins have been alternating over that time, so that would say WCE win.

However;

In that time we have beaten WCE at least once at every venue where we have played them, but they have only beaten us at Subiaco, so that would say we win.

At the MCG our succes rate against them is 100%, so that would say we win.

I know you can make stats say anything, but I'd take 2 out of 3 anytime.

Here's hoping we can keep the 100% record perfect.

[Dave]

I was a bit concerned about the WLWLW thing but then I thought:
We lost the prelim in 2003 when we had a weeks break, this time we won, we haven't won at Subi for (?) years and this year we won, so now it's time to string 2 wins together against them.

[hammo]

Sydney has now won 5 finals in a row.

Our MCG winning streak in finals is 2 but in all matches it is 5.

West Coast have not won a final at the MCG since 1999.

We would have to be a 3-4 goal better side at the G with our 'home' support than at Subiaco.

The week off (plus extra day's preparation) must be also be worth at least a 1-2 goal advantage.

All reassuring points.

[dread and might]

I was thinking about the whole, "Coast only beat us at Subi factor"

Is it balanced out by the inclusion of Kerr and Embley?

Also: We always have a slow start to the season and there is no send off rule therefore here is my proposal:

Start of the GF Hunter goes to Harass MOL. Magic grabs him, Hall starts sprinting towards the pair, Magic shoves Hunter towards Hall at the last second, Hall raises elbow and sends Hunter on a shortcut into mad monday.

This has to occur before the opening siren so we can later argue that it was not "in play".

[Guzzitza]

The worry is that last years GF was different in several ways;

a) Lynch was dropped, and Gardiner played.. as a lame duck forward who was cleaned up by LRT

b) Kerr was injured by half time, so his influence on the game was reduced significantly

c) No Crouch for us this year, and no Ball.


This things are important, because Crouch did a great job on Cousins in the GF, he was out standing defensively. Without him there we will struggle to cover their midfield, which whether you like them or not - is the best on paper IMHO. Without Ball, their mids will have more of an impact, as although Jolly gets the hitouts, Ball was more effective in hitting to our advantage. Add to the mix a fully fit Kerr who was in fine form against Adelaide, and the midfield is looking a worry. Add to that, that I doubt Worsfield will make the same mistake of using only Cox against the Dr Jolly and the Donk - so we may see WC mids getting more of the ball than they did at Subi.

They still dont have many options forward, it will be no suprise if they put Hunter staight into the forward line from minute one as they did against the Crows, or at least in the second half. Hunter is a weasel, but an extremely strong mark and requires a quality defender. I would be tempted to play LRT on Lynch seeing as he stepped up so well last year against Gardiner. And would like to see Leo play on Hunter if he moves forward as he is such a danger.

So in a word, yes I'm worried. Im going with no expectation of victory so im not disappointed. On another note, I agree with the plan of having Hunter meets Barry's elbow before the game - Hunter is the danger man for mine.

[hammo]

Interesting points, Guzz.

I think Leo will get first crack at Lynch only because he is their genuine full forward and Roos usually gives Leo these assignments. It is risky though.

Was LRT playing on Gardiner in the first half or was it Leo?

I suspect B2 will get Hanson but would prefer him on Hunter if the grub moves forward.

I think we can cover their midlfield but Kerr is a worry. He did well on one leg last year.

[Jeffers1984]

Jude Bolton on Kerr. Grunt for Grunt.
Mcveigh to play out of his skin to beat Cuz.
Mathews to play on Fletcher.
Ablett to play out of his skin to stay on Judd (NOG is in top form atm).
Bucky on Braun
Goodes on umpires favourite Stenglin.
Kirk to take them all on lol.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by Guzzitza
The worry is that last years GF was different in several ways;

a) Lynch was dropped, and Gardiner played.. as a lame duck forward who was cleaned up by LRT

b) Kerr was injured by half time, so his influence on the game was reduced significantly

c) No Crouch for us this year, and no Ball.

...

They still dont have many options forward, it will be no suprise if they put Hunter staight into the forward line from minute one as they did against the Crows, or at least in the second half. Hunter is a weasel, but an extremely strong mark and requires a quality defender.

- Lynch was pretty well held in the game at Subi. If he kicks only two goals for the game that is a win for us.
- Kerr is an unknown. He still averages well below his normal disposals with us, and I think Ablett is primed for this challenge.
- We have replaced Crouch with McVeigh, and frankly its an ok arrangement. Macca doesn't yet have the tank of Crouchy or Cousins, but he did the job for the first three quarters in the QF. Let's hope that experience makes him better yet again this time around.
- Hunter's real value is in pinch-hitting. The 'shock' value of his move forward is what works best, as he forces a change in the defensive setup and usually ends up with no opponent, the forward he has dragged down there, or our third or fourth defender. The more he spends forward the less effective he becomes, and that tactic has become predictable now anyway. I expect us to be prepared to counter it.

Points also in our favour:
- Doyle in the goal square for extended periods. It has only be used very sparingly since his return, but to good effect each time. I expect it to be a bit of a 'trump card' on Saturday.
- Malceski's run and accurate long kicking. Dont under-estimate his value. I am a strong believer that his addition to the side this year has made us a 3-4 goal better team (and the stats back me up). He provides us with the ability to more often isolate Hall, MOL and ROK on a lead.
- Richards marking power and read of ball flight. Whilst Ted has been average to good most of the year, his ability to play effectively as a loose man has improved in every game. He is now a fantastic defensive weapon as he floats into the space and takes solid marks, allowing Kennelly and co more opportunities to run out of the back half. Without his marking power we struggled last year to rebound quickly.

[Guzzitza]

Originally posted by Schneiderman

- Hunter's real value is in pinch-hitting. The 'shock' value of his move forward is what works best, as he forces a change in the defensive setup and usually ends up with no opponent, the forward he has dragged down there, or our third or fourth defender. The more he spends forward the less effective he becomes, and that tactic has become predictable now anyway. I expect us to be prepared to counter it.

In the crows game he started up front, was a threat all game, kicked 4.2 i think. Hes a major worry, yeah, its predictable, but it does work - really seems to throw out whatever defence he plays against.

[dread and might]

I think we seriously need to address Cousins and Judd's fourth quarter impact. They are so damaging once the other mids run out of legs.

Who will make way for Seaby?

Why was Staker out against Adelaide?

[boroboy]

Originally posted by Dr Diabolical
I still haven't seen who is going to stop Judd. Ablett is destroyed by Judd every time. The Goodes v. Judd matchup only seems to work for a half.

You can't / don't stop Judd - he's going to get 25-30 touches on Saturday no matter who plays on him so we may as well accept that fact now. Its just a case of limiting the damage when he does get the ball and ensuring he has to work hard for every single possession. Most teams seem to alternate players who go with him - I suspect we'll do the same and really mix it up. One thing Roos clearly has over Worsfeld is he is a better tactician on match day and I trust him implicitly to minimize the Judd factor as much as possible.

And remember - there'll be plenty of head scratching going on at WC - wondering how they'll stop Goodsey....

[hammo]

Originally posted by dread and might
I think we seriously need to address Cousins and Judd's fourth quarter impact. They are so damaging once the other mids run out of legs.

I wonder if it's worth considering B2 or ROK for the fourth quarter, especially if we are in front?

Both are super fit, but will B2 be missed in the backline too much?

[Thunder Shaker]

West Coast have not beaten us away from WA since 1999. SInce then we have recorded 3 wins against the Eagles at Subi and one at the MCG (neutral ground).

1999-R9  81 - 94  L S.C.G.     
2000-R2  82 - 70  W Subiaco    
2000-R17 151- 80  W S.C.G.     
2001-R2  104- 89  W Subiaco    
2001-R17 83 - 48  W S.C.G.     
2002-R11 89 - 102 L Subiaco    
2003-R14 92 - 84  W S.C.G.     
2004-R8  97 - 124 L Subiaco    
2004-EF  75 - 34  W Stad. Aust.
2005-R6  59 - 104 L Subiaco    
2005-R17 88 - 67  W S.C.G.     
2005-QF  65 - 69  L Subiaco    
2005-GF  58 - 54  W M.C.G.     
2006-R15 65 - 67  L Subiaco    
2006-QF  85 - 84  W Subiaco

[Bart]

In the last 10 encounters outside Perth between these sides Swans have won 9 from the last 10 against WC (the 1 being that day Plugger was supposed to kick the records)

Whilst the Swans and Eagles have a long WLWLWL.... the Eagles streak at the MCG reads LLWWLLWW

We have won 8 of our last 10 in Melbourne (OK so they are 7/10)

Did you know we have led at 3/4 time in the past 5 matches between the sides (no indicator here but interesting).

I suspect this match may be more high scoring than people think. WC have not put 100 points past us away from home in 13 years.

Adam Schneider has won 6 from 6 GFs (5 at Osborne, three senior ones and two junior ones and that other one last year)

We lead them 3-1 in finals

Dr J's magic 8 ball says 'yes'

But the main reason we will win is the RED HOT form of our Big 3 key forwards. 14-3 last week between them. How I'd like to see that repeated.

[Refried Noodle]

This thread makes me feel much better!