That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

**Guzzitza** · 10 October 2006, 01:33 PM

Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by SimonH

I've mentioned previously that, Inshallah, 16 of the 22 players who ran out for the Swans in the 2006 GF could/should still be with us and firing for the 2010 season.

Of the other 6, Tadhg and Micky O are the only certainties to go. Leo Barry, BBBH, Kirk are all at least as likely as not to have retired by end 2009, but I'll take a punt that one of them will play into 2010.

Sure 16 of the 22 should still be with us, but its not the numbers, its the quality of players leaving

Tadgh, Mick O, + Possibly - Leo, BBBH, Kirk

Your basically talking about our MOST influential players, the game breakers . If the "possibles" are still playing they will be near the end of their careers so may not have as greater impact anymore too.
I would argue, the other significants who would be left are only O'Keefe and Goodes.

If someone said to you: "Hey, next season, you wont have Micky, Tadgh, Leo, BBBH, and Kirk... "

Would you be thinking, I'm in for a miserable season? I would.

**AnnieH** · 10 October 2006, 01:36 PM

Inshulla I get a crystal ball !!

***SimonH*** · 10 October 2006, 01:57 PM

Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by Guzzitza
Sure 16 of the 22 should still be with us, but its not the numbers, its the quality of players leaving

Tadgh, Mick O, + Possibly - Leo, BBBH, Kirk

Your basically talking about our MOST influential players, the game breakers . If the "possibles" are still playing they will be near the end of their careers so may not have as greater impact anymore too.
I would argue, the other significants who would be left are only O'Keefe and Goodes.

If someone said to you: "Hey, next season, you wont have Micky, Tadgh, Leo, BBBH, and Kirk... "

Would you be thinking, I'm in for a miserable season? I would.

Yes, but the whole point is that it's not next year. It's 3 or 4 years' time, and so we have 3 or 4 years to prepare, not one.
Because they will be nearing the end of their career and their individual influence begins to wane, we will be giving other players, both inside and outside the 2006 GF 16, the opportunity to step up and play the roles that these players did in 2006. And relying on them to take that opportunity.

If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

**hammo** · 10 October 2006, 02:05 PM

Re: Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by SimonH

If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

God bless Saddo

**AnnieH** · 10 October 2006, 02:08 PM

Re: Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by SimonH
snip ... If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

You're not taking into account the "variables", i.e. injury, poaching, suspensions, retirements, dummy spits, etc. etc. etc.

Jeez ... it's only trade week 2006 and I think we've pretty much already "what if'd" Sydney for season 2007 to death!!

The "what if" factor when trying to look even two years ahead is of astronomical proportions, let alone trying to look three or even four years into the future. You just can't do it.

But that's just footy. That's the way it is.
Let's just look forward to a happy and healthy 2007 for all.
Inshulla.

**Industrial Fan** · 10 October 2006, 02:37 PM

Re: Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by SimonH
If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

Thats actually a pretty good illustration.

I think its probably not a bad thing if Roos is thinking of heading off after a few more years - a new coach and new ideology can refresh a club and in some ways counteract 'bottoming out'. Having said that it would be hard to top or even equal Roos.

2010 looks ok for mine.

**woo** · 10 October 2006, 02:38 PM

so basically signing spida is as dumb as it sounds huh......

**Guzzitza** · 10 October 2006, 02:48 PM

Re: Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by SimonH

Yes, but the whole point is that it's not next year. It's 3 or 4 years' time, and so we have 3 or 4 years to prepare, not one.
Because they will be nearing the end of their career and their individual influence begins to wane, we will be giving other players, both inside and outside the 2006 GF 16, the opportunity to step up and play the roles that these players did in 2006. And relying on them to take that opportunity.

I find it difficult to see how you intend to do this , somehow prepare for the next 3 or 4 years time yet keep these key players on at the same time. The point is, that you will keep someone on such as BBBH as long as possible, similar to Micky O, he'll be out there every game even if his knees are disintegrating. When these players leave, they tend not to filter out by swapping very week with a younger player. They leave like Williams did - mid season due to injury or end of a season due to other reasons. Generally they play the full season all games, because these impact players are exactly that, you want them out there for as long and as much as possible. Little Rookie BBBH Wannabe doesnt get a real run until the real BBBH steps down. Thats why the big voids are created, and thats why there a windows of opportunity. Mal began cementing a permanent spot in the team only once Williams was out. Mal will not have the same impact that williams had for some time, though he has the potential. When you have several players of around the same age, who will more than likely drop out at the same time (including our coach apaprently) then you suddenly have big holes in your team - filled by vastly inexperienced repalcements. To say that you can prepare is just not realistic, you can play your up and coming palyers in the rookies as much as you like, but in the end its not real experience. And when its the option between picking a semi fit Barry Hall and say a heath Grundy, the coachs will pick Hall every time.
So in 3 or 4 years time, you'll have key players leaving, and their replacements may be talented but will be far from filling their shoes. Players like Grundy, sit and wait, they play maybe 3 or 4 games a year, until say BBBH/Micky O or Leo suddenly drop out - then they are thrust in there.
Thats why there is the window, the coach will keep the best players he has out on the field for as long as possible, even though it can mean hampering younger players development - because you need to make the most of those great players you have, while you still have them.

**Go Swannies** · 10 October 2006, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by woo
so basically signing spida is as dumb as it sounds huh......

Well, the Swans were predicted to not even finish in the 8 in 2006 without Jason Ball.

A fit Spida will really strengthen the team - watching Cox working the ground reminds me how much we lost with Ball.

Next year the attention will all be on the Premiers. If players improve and our new coach(es) work out, we could be well in the running for two flags in three years. I think the loss this year - and the realisation how close they came to blowing it all with some loses during the year - will act as impetus. And next year, the team will have neither the Premiership hangover, nor the summer celebrations to cope with.

I bet we still start slowly though.

**woo** · 10 October 2006, 02:52 PM

on another note, I know a lot of bandwagoners are used to winning, and it KILLS me to say this but all those years of losing etc so made me enjoy the grand final win so much more, its like we fought the hard war and won...

every teams goes through it, its silly to not expect a fall in wins circa 4 years time...so what...we're still all going to all the games supporting the team and trying to help them across the line...and those who wont be at those games should think about wehy they really support the swans

whats the diff?

**Guzzitza** · 10 October 2006, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by woo
on another note, I know a lot of bandwagoners are used to winning, and it KILLS me to say this but all those years of losing etc so made me enjoy the grand final win so much more, its like we fought the hard war and won...

every teams goes through it, its silly to not expect a fall in wins circa 4 years time...so what...we're still all going to all the games supporting the team and trying to help them across the line...and those who wont be at those games should think about wehy they really support the swans

whats the diff?

I've stated numerous times i actually look forward to losing the old crowd and blooding some youngsters who sadly cant get a go right now. Its all part of it.
The theory of the "window", in my opinion, is a sound one. I think Roos agrees with it too, hes suggested once the old crowd have left he will too, it will be the end of the current era - but right now we need to make the most of it.

***SimonH*** · 10 October 2006, 06:03 PM

Re: Re: Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by Guzzitza
I find it difficult to see how you intend to do this , somehow prepare for the next 3 or 4 years time yet keep these key players on at the same time. [snip] Thats why there is the window, the coach will keep the best players he has out on the field for as long as possible, even though it can mean hampering younger players development - because you need to make the most of those great players you have, while you still have them.

You're half-right; but AFL players are not born great, and we're not actually after clones of our current great players. BBBH is not a clone of Lockett; MOL is not a clone of anyone, certainly not Simon Minton-Connell or Capper. Goodes is tearing up the rule-book as he goes. None of Buchanan, Kirk or JBolt plays exactly the game that Schwass, Paul Kelly or Cresswell did. We're after good, hopefully great, players who play in the relevant parts of the ground, not replicas of the great players who went before.

Luckily, because you can have more than 6 players on the ground at once, you can get game time, confidence and a feel for the team's game into the next generation of players without having to take the senior group off the ground. They certainly have to take a big step up after BBBH or MOL retires. But that big step becomes an impossible step if some 'genius' 18 year old plays his first game the week after BBBH hangs up his boots, and the public is told, 'Behold! Your new key forward is here!' Grundy will earn more than 3 or 4 games a year over the next 2 or 3 years if he's good enough to be a long-term key forward, even if MOL and BBBH play every game in that time.

The best-case scenario is that a player takes the mantle, he doesn't wait for it to be handed to him: i.e. by the time 2008 rolls around, people are going to the game and saying, 'Micky O is a legend of the club; but the guy you've really got to watch out for is Reg Grundy'. You can debate whether Malceski contributed more to the team than Williams in the matches both played (possibly not); but I know who I was more excited to turn up and watch.

There are heaps of examples of that natural development in the Swans squad. In 2001, Leo Barry was more of a support act in defence and was not the elite player he has become, Kirk really came on as a player and a leader when Schwass and Paul Kelly were nearing or at the end, Goodes had huge talent but was erratic as all hell 5 years ago, JBolt was always keen as a puppy but didn't have anywhere near the leadership skills he now has, Schneider stepped seemingly from nowhere into a slot for a small forward in 2003, etcetera. Players develop into the roles as they're able to take them and as opportunities arise. The above achievements occurred without the coaching group having to force Schwass off the park so that Kirk could develop a greater sense of responsibility, etc.

'Several key players around the same age' is the important phrase, but it's apt to mislead in terms of longevity. Some footballers go until 33-34 or longer, some retire at 29. More years than not, every club will lose one or more 'key players'. Just a product of dividing the number of good players at a club by the average length of career. What you're looking to avoid is too many structurally important players retiring at the same time. Kirk for example is a key player, but isn't structurally that important. MOL probably isn't either; even though he does things that no other forward is likely to, our gameplan doesn't revolve around him (as opposed to some other marking forward) being there.

BBBH and Leo Barry are really the big ones. What we're looking to avoid, is both of them retiring in the same year. Should hopefully be manageable.

**Bloody Hell** · 11 October 2006, 04:55 AM

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

Originally posted by SimonH

BBBH and Leo Barry are really the big ones. What we're looking to avoid, is both of them retiring in the same year. Should hopefully be manageable.

At the time of his retirement I don't think Leo is going to be a huge loss. He should have played his whole career matching up on Russell Robinson type players...but instead through need has grown a foot (or two) and is constantly having to punch above his weight and height.

This year for the first time he hasn't dominated the way he has in previous years (remember him taking on a rampaging Gehrig and keeping him to 2 touches, both handballs) - lost a little pace and a little leap. He should now be playing back pocket (he'd be the best in the league) - which the swans have covered.

This is why I think it should be a priority to pick up a key defender. (or Grundy or Vogels). Leo Barry has been, as still is a great servant of our club. I don't want anybody to say 'he's crap' blah, blah, blah because as he gets older he can't take the jobs he'd been able to in the past. They should be proactive in finding a solution...not wait till it is bleeding obvious.

You say you don't think MOL will be missed - but with a forward structure that is more often than not 4 guys I think he will. My concern is that MOL and BBBH will retire in the same year.

It's probably best to look at the probable (unprobable) forward structure in 2009 - but lookinig at next year

No doubt Grundy will play next year as a leading FF (The forward structure worked well with his addition this year). Micky O, will play as a stay at home FF and be giving master classes in
contested marking (take note BBBH), or play further up the ground (depending on how the body holds up - I notice he seems to be having more and more trouble riding out the season). Plus Davis, O'Keefe, and another small forward/ rotating midfielder.

Say MOL retires - Does an aging BBBH go to FF? Does Grundy/Vogels play as CHF?....I think this is too far in the future to comment on....too many variables.

So in answer to does 2010 look good....we have the 2nd youngest list in the competition and we just played in 2 GF's....yes, it looks good!

**bandwagon** · 11 October 2006, 08:55 AM

Super thread guys.
But just to indulge the pendant in me - "we have the 2nd youngest list in the competition" isn't right. For the 2006 season we had the 8th youngest, but it was the youngest of the other Top 4 teams.
However our oldest 22 are just about our Grand Final 22, so getting games into the younger players whilst pushing for a flag is going to be a key challenge.

That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

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