I watched bits of the first three quarters again yesterday and having seen this tackle again, think you're completely correct on this one. There was another later in the game where he did have prior opportunity but in this one his arm was grabbed almost the same split second as he took possession.
It's an unfortunate one because the fact he wasn't completely wrapped up probably gave the impression he was trying to break off the tackle but reality is that he had no chance to legally dispose of the ball once his arm was grabbed. Had he been fully tackled rather than just had his arm held onto, it probably would have been a bounce.
Though even that is questionable given - as you point out - the two or three ludicrous other HTB decisions that were paid (and a couple of blatant ones that were missed).

and his efficiency is down to about 90%
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