Reasons for Optimism

[sharp9]

Believe it or not, if we play like we played in the second half yesterday we will cruise into the 8 and probably sneak into the 4. Why? The draw.

There are sixteen teams and only four are Gaaaawwwwwwwn!

There are nine games left.

We play four...yes four of the gawn teams.

Melbourne (H), Carlton (H), Richmond (H), Brisbane (A)

Of the five games against contenders two are at home against perrenial non-travellers Fremantle and young and tired non-travellers Hawthorn (Rnd 22), meaning that all things being equal (and our form righting itself) we will start favourites in at least 6 of 9 games.

Chances of being favourites against WC and Collingwood are next to nil unless Collingwood's youngters get the Colliwobbles. Against St. Kilda we are a 50/50 bet if we have some form going in...added to which the Saints play Collingwood, Adelaide (H) and Hawthorn over the next three weeks, so their season could be done and dusted by the time they play us in Rd 19.

So, all in all, we will win at least seven if we get our form back (factoring, say, one surprise loss and one surprise win...but would it really be such a shock to beat the Weagles or Wobbles if we are in form?)

And that, folks, is why Roosey has gone the "one last chance for the team as it is" route. Chances of Premiership with a clean-ou...nil - obviously. Chances of Premiereship with current team regaining form - some (still even now).

Swans 7-2 (13)

As Melcho so eruditely put it, Freo is the bust game. Win and we're back. Lose and it's over as we know it.

This means that this weekend is win/win for us RWO fans because even the Messiah has used the words "play the kids" if we lose to Freo.

So get on board. Even I am praying for Benny to have a blinder...and Macca I love you, just play with freedom and go for it.

BTW as for some of the other teams in contention Adelaide has Hawthorn, St. Kilda (A)Frematle, Essendon (A)Port, Geelong(A) and the Bulldogs !!!!! Before respite against the Lions and then Collingwood at the Dome. Considering they have just come off 3 losses in 4 weeks (WC, Geelong and Melbourne) you would have to say that they are either a sleeping giant(killer) or are just ready to go to sleep.

Adelaide 4 - 5 (11)

Essendon play only 2 bottom four sides (carlton and Richmond) plus have the Eagles at Subi.

Essendon 4 - 5 (12)

Roos have 3 (Melbourne, Brisbane and Carlton) plus Freo at Subi as well as WC, Geelong and Hawthorn at Tassie. Good Luck!

Roos 4 - 5 (12)

Collingwood have the best draw (naturally) with all four bottom teams and no, repeat no, travel!!! On top of which they only play one of the other top four sides (Geelong) having lost to the Hawks already.

Collingwood 7 - 2 (15)

Port have Richmond, Melbourne and Carlton but get to go away to Hawks (Tassie) and Geelong (Skilled) as well as the Eagles at home.

Port 5 - 4 (13)

Hawthorn have Brisbane and Richmond as pencil ins, but away to Adelaide, Sydney and two games in Tassie. Mmm no games against the other top four sides and confidence of beating CW...

Hawks 7 - 2 (16)

The Eagles have 2 easybeats (Richmond and Brissy at home) and no games against the top 4 sides.

Eagles 8 - 1 (17)

Geelong have 2 easybeats (Brisbane and Richmond) and only 1 top four side (Collingwood) Away to Freo.

Should tire a little 7 - 2 (17)

Meaning the ladder goes

1 Geelong (17)
2 West Coast (17)
3 Hawthorn (16)
4 Collingwood (15)
5 Sydney (13)
6 Port (13)
7 Roos (12)
8 Essendon (12)

Essendon at Homebush
Collingwood at the G
West Coast at Subi (!!!!!!!!!!) in the Prelim
Geelong at the G

PREMIERSHIP!!!!

No worries!!!!!

Just like that

[Doctor J.]

Sharp9. I love your optimism, and you have used some pretty good analysis to support it all.

All hinges on one thing. IF we regain form

[Zlatorog]

I'm afraid, sharp9, you're very lonely in that optimism. I wonder how many RWO-ers are sharing it with you. I'm definitely not one of them.

[Glenn]

Share the optomism, IF Sydney can actually get away to a good start just for something different, no better chance than to get that against the Frockers who are suspectible away from Subiaco.

[barry]

To win from 5th we would need the cards to fall our way regarding venues:
Week:
1. Home final
2. Melbourne final against imposter team (pies, dawks, dogs)
3. Melbourne final against imposter team (pies, dawks, dogs)
4. GF against non Melbourne team. (WC, Port, Adel)

[Industrial Fan]

I dont think Richmond or Brisbane will complete the season without another win either...Melbourne are a possibility now that the Rev is gone, and half the team is crippled, but the more games won from those three plus Carlton the better. And they are quite likely to do so at some stage (fingers crossed Carlton can bring the pies down...)

[royboy42]

Love it Sharpy! Don't think it's gonna happen quite that way, but love it nonetheless!

[Damien]

To win from 5th we would need the cards to fall our way regarding venues:
Week:
1. Home final
2. Melbourne final against imposter team (pies, dawks, dogs)
3. Melbourne final against imposter team (pies, dawks, dogs)
4. GF against non Melbourne team. (WC, Port, Adel)

Yep that is my feeling too, our best chance from 5th or 6th is falling on the same side of the draw as Victorian clubs, so it gives us that home final plus trips to Melbourne.

The same could techincally happen from 7th and 8th minus the home final of course.

[Jewels]

Yep that is my feeling too, our best chance from 5th or 6th is falling on the same side of the draw as Victorian clubs, so it gives us that home final plus trips to Melbourne.

The same could techincally happen from 7th and 8th minus the home final of course.

My problem with trips to Melbourne is playing them at the Dome. Apart from one beautiful game V Saints back in Sept 05, we're pretty useless there.

[Damien]

My problem with trips to Melbourne is playing them at the Dome. Apart from one beautiful game V Saints back in Sept 05, we're pretty useless there.

Dome is likely to end up with one final at the most I would suggest and that would be the first week. The AFL will be pretty keen to bank as many finals as possible this year at the MCG with the so called Vic resurgence.

[liz]

My problem with trips to Melbourne is playing them at the Dome. Apart from one beautiful game V Saints back in Sept 05, we're pretty useless there.

If you're referring to the 2005 PF, that was at the 'G.

[NMWBloods]

As I said in the "Where Will We Finish" thread - we are certainly capable of winning up to 8 games in the run home and comfortably finishing in the eight, if we have a significant improvement in form.

I'm not sure if these late surges in games really mean much as indicators of form, however they may have benefits in confidence. Seemed that way in our close loss to Richmond in '05.

Our best chance to make top 4 is for some of the younger or apparently weaker sides to fall back later in the year - Hawthorn, Collingwood, Essendon, Kangaroos, Port. That happens reasonably frequently to a few teams.
I think Adelaide are still a good chance of making top 4 as they regain some injured players.

In most cases 14 wins and good percentage is needed as a bare minimum to make 4th. However, in a pretty even season you could potentially snag 4th (or even higher) with 13 wins and good percentage. This looks like being one of those seasons.

[liz]

In most cases 14 wins and good percentage is needed as a bare minimum to make 4th. However, in a pretty even season you could potentially snag 4th (or even higher) with 13 wins and good percentage. This looks like being one of those seasons.

It's entirely possible that percentage could separate teams in spots 4-8 at the end of the year - ie you may need 13 wins to make the top 8 but that could also sneak you into the top 4 if your percentage is good enough.

These late game comebacks may say little about form but they have certainly protected the team's percentage when, realistically, it should be a lot worse than it is. What we need now is a couple of decent sized wins (60 pts plus) to give it a bit of a boost, though it's not clear that one of these is in the offing. Over the last couple of seasons, even though many games have been tight lockdowns, there have always been a couple of high scoring games thrown in there to boost the percentage.

Celebrating Micky O's record this weekend would be a great place to start!!

[barry]

In most cases 14 wins and good percentage is needed as a bare minimum to make 4th. However, in a pretty even season you could potentially snag 4th (or even higher) with 13 wins and good percentage. This looks like being one of those seasons.

I cant believe you posted such an optimistic paragraph, but alas I dont share your views on a top 4 spot. There is only one place up for grabs in the top 4, and we are competing for that one place with Collingwood who have an even easier run home, and have a couple of game head start on us.

13 wins will garantee 5th. We'll need 14, maybe 15 for 4th.

[NMWBloods]

These late game comebacks may say little about form but they have certainly protected the team's percentage when, realistically, it should be a lot worse than it is.

Yes - that's a very good point.